The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Thank you. I meant to ask where is equilibrium for those two horizontal lines at TP. I did not ask nothing about PP...
Are we talking about same chart?

I am referring to this one:


--
is it same as this one :

Hello Tradder Waldo,

Please read post 320, there it is exactly described, how the lines came about

Title: Help to get a feel for the Equilibrium

Best regards

Hello dear traders,


since the 20th of february the market is a bit uncertain. The lines I have marked on 21st February have reasonably held.



If the price now passes through the next resistance, the red resistance line could be crucial to a supply or demand market.

It remains very exciting today.

best regards

Equilibrium in the monthly chart

Dear Traders,

In order to find out what will happen in the EURUSD over the next few months, we need to look more closely at the Equilibrium.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At point 1 we can see how the bullish price came off strongly from a pullback and formed a small equilibrium. After that, the price continued to rise sharply.
If you follow this line, you can see how the big pullback has responded to point 3. Between 2014 and 2017, the monthly price has reacted three more times to the line. Equilibrium is created at point 2 and it can be observed that the course reacts five times to this and finally forms an equilibrium again at point 6. This line now acts as a resistance. Point 3 is not very clear to me, because after a small equilibrium a large equilibrium was formed. However, this line could be a big resistance when the price of 1.255 arrives in this zone. Point 4 is a clear zone, but it is unclear whether as resistance or support. If the point 6 holds as a resistance and the course then starts up from 1.179, I would be more inclined to view the line 4 as a support line. The point 5 has already acted as a resistance, so I think this zone acts as a support when the course now breaks through from above.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Here we see once more clearer in the daily chart the price trend. At point 1 and 2 you can already guess the rest of the course. Equilibrium at point 3 is a crucial zone. From point 4 a strong eruption goes up, at point 5 a strong eruption down. Thus, this zone could represent the end of a pullback of 1.255.
If this happens, we will see. I can not look to the future even with an Equilibrium. However, if I can assume that this is an important zone, I already have an advantage.

Therefore, these equilibrium are so important to identify from a sharp rise or fall. Look at it yourself in the 15 M chart and draw these zones. You'll be amazed how many times you hit the mark.

I wish you a very successful trading week

best regards

Hello Bionik,

Thank you for your analysis. So, in her opinion, the price could fall within the range of 1.93240 and 1.73300 before going into the range of 1.255400 - 1.25700.

Hello skipper,

The downtrend to 1.179 would be quite conceivable, but that depends on the further price trend.



I think that the course is doing a little pullback now. If he gets through the green zone it looks very good with a bearish momentum.

best regards

Important supply, demand and equilibrium


Dear Traders,

Here's a nice example of how versatile an Equilibrium can be and how it can be accurately identified.



We start in the EURUSD 1H chart in July 2017. At point 1, a classic equilibrium forms and then the price rises sharply. From the white arrow, demand was stronger than supply. If we follow this point to the right, we get to point 2. The price increases, then there is a pullback with a small equilibrium. Now the only question is: When will demand dominate the supply? Exactly from the white arrow. This leads us exactly to point 4. Near point 5, an equilibrium is created again. Exactly on the white arrow the demand dominates the supply. This leads us to point 6. At point 7, equilibrium re-emerges supply dominates demand and the price falls sharply. Let's take a look at what this zone is for the future.



I think that should convince everyone that supply, demand and equilibrium are a great way to significantly improve my chances of winning.

I wish you a successful week

best regards

Handle what you see and you will lose or win


Hello Trader,

Before we start we do a little test again

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

We have two situations in the first situation, a green candle then a red and in the second situation a red and then a green candle.
To make it easier, I have sketched the course within the candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The numbers in the Metatrader represent micro pips. The high low amounts to a total of 5 pip per candle. You recognize a little equilibrium here. The question is: is it going up or down now?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Same example only vice versa. Question: Is the price going up or down now?
Correct answer: That depends on the last equilibrium and if after that the supply has dominated the demand or the demand has been stronger.
Well, if you see the course, you could say more.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Here you can see a course, but you will not get any smarter. The difference between a minute candle and a 20 second chart is already enormous. Especially in very volatile markets, the 20 sec chart can give much better insights. Basically, the current bar charts are misleading us. If I used to think it had to go up, the price went down. I thought now it goes down, it went up. Today, I do not notice the currently running candle at all. Unless the candle comes into a zone I've identified before. Then the price reaction is important to me. I believe if they switch off the current candle, many traders would be able to earn more profit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

With a reversed price history, the error rate of the trades could possibly also be improved, but that is pure speculation. The movements of the candles are deceiving us, it's like a tennis player pretending a hit. No one can react so quickly to know that this is a real blow or just a fake. Most of the price movements are not fakes, they are the result of sell order and buy order. The market moves only because orders are abandoned, the orders that are already priced into the market, no longer change the price. Only if they are taken out of the market again. An example of how it could work:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I hope it does not work that way, but in the beginning I experienced that as well. Today I work with a double network: supply and demand. When I enter the market, I set my stop to a previously identified resistance line. I never put my stop to my disadvantage. When the stop is triggered, it is usually the case that the course goes much further down or up.

Losses are part of the business, as are profits. That's why I'm not interested in that. I never try to recoup my losses on the same day. Very important, the next day I start at zero and not in the minus. New day new game.

And when things are going really bad, I'm happy. My money, which I have previously taken from another is not gone, it has now only another.

I wish you a successful day

best regards

Hello Bionik,
I have already learned so much new from them. I find that I always try to find a balance that I am sure I will not always or immediately succeed. But I think this kind of trading so far the best. I still use my support indicator to find the balance better and then make the appropriate decision for the trade. I think it is much better in volatile markets. Yesterday it went very well for me, today I have some problems, because the market fluctuates too much.

Hello Skipper 13,

I am very happy that it is progressing slowly. Please keep in mind that you are learning a new profession and that takes time. With the way to act you are on the right path, the experience comes with the time. Trading in Equilibrium is always difficult and not really recommended. I had the last few days so my difficulties to get into the market properly. But you have to always look positive and so come better days again.

best regards

.

Hello Techanalyst,

as a long-term trader I would be there as well, although I would have waited a bit, since I think the price could rise again by 150 pip. A risk profit ratio of 5 is top. In addition, I believe that the course could turn back at 1.179 or above, but then you can also close manually. In any case, you have some thoughts, I'm excited. But that will take a while until the trade is over. I wish you that the trade also goes through clean.

best regards

Something to laugh about funny broker


Hello dear traders,


I want to make a big exception today and give you something to laugh with on the way. In Germany there is a similar video, so I just had to post it. Belongs to the topic: Forex.

Inserted Video

I wish you a nice trader week.

best regards

If I were a big player ....

Hello dear traders,



Look at the 4H chart in EURUSD. The course went up sharply from the bottom and at point 1 there was a small pullback. In zone 2, demand dominated the supply to point 3. Now the supply dominated to point 4. There, the price went up again, since not all purchase orders had been completed. Only at point 5, the supply dominated so much that the price fell to point 6. There was a strong equilibrium between point 1 and 2, as well as near point 6. Demand dominated supply again and the price rose sharply. At point 7, all buy orders were processed and the offer dominated to point 8. There was a small pullback and then it went down. Now we are at a crucial point. You can see that some bullish moments have sprung up in the last 32 hours. That's a hint that uses demand. The big players know that the crowd expects it to go back up now. However, the strong demand zone lies with the green box.



As a big player, I suspect that the prices will rise again. So what do I want. Low entry prices to sell high. I let the mass assume that the prices rise again now and press the course into the demand zone. There I buy everything I can get and the prices go up. I am selling between zones 1 and 9 because I know that the prices will fall very sharply then.

At 1.22116 everyone thought it was going up now. Since we are already in a stronger downtrend, many assume that it will now go down stronger if the big players push the prices to buy cheaper again. Then the big players push the courses up and all are stopped out. Then the big players buy everything and the course keeps jumping up.

Whether that always works, I do not think so, but I always try to think like a big player. That has often helped me.

I wish you all a great day

Breakout without annoying passengers


Dear Traders,

The forex market today is much harder to trade than it was many years ago. The reason is because of how the traders are oriented. I'm not talking about the private trades that make up only a fraction of the market, but the commercials and non-commercials. Commercials are often producing or manufacturing companies, which because of their dependency secures themselves from commodity prices on the futures market. (Hedgers)

Non-commercials are typically performance-oriented institutional traders or solvent private investors who meet the minimum reporting requirements.
Particularly aggressive are the very short-term oriented high-frequency traders on which I have already written a report. (Post 205 & 237)
These high-frequency traders already account for more than 50% of the turnover on some exchanges on certain days. These traders are very short-term invested and cut with all tricks, small pieces out of the big cake. These high frequency scalper work with complex algorithms to analyze different markets and execute orders depending on market conditions. Their technology and their programs are almost unrivaled.

These traders often provide for the impossible movements in the market, where you ask yourself as a private trader: Where is the trend actually going?



We write Oct 17, after a 200 pip uptrend comes a downtrend that will grow to be 150 pip. The course goes down to a nice 70 pip. Suddenly the price goes up 70 pip within minutes and then the downtrend continues as if nothing had ever happened. Who is pushing for buy in a falling market please? Answer: He has enough money. Why does one do it? First, because nobody expects it. Second, so that you get a better purchase price. Third, to stop most traders, because competition slows down the prices.

If I want to trade high as a big player, you need to have as little as possible on board. Why? The answer is simple, if the price goes up a lot, many traders want to get out quickly to make a profit. So to get out I have to sell my trade. When many traders sell, the price of the upside should not continue. This means that the fewer traders are pulled up, the higher my price.

So I have to confuse the traders, I have to let them believe that the course is going in a completely different direction. Then I'm up in the market alone.We are fooled every day. The only way to protect yourself is to watch the Equilibrium in the market. Of course I would have been stopped in the situation, but my stop would have closed at 5 pip. I could have gotten over that. But there are many traders working with larger stops. The interesting thing about the Equilibrium would have been in this situation, that one gets an idea of how far this move could go and would go down exactly in the zone of Equlibrium.
Nevertheless, one could have foreseen it, or could have guessed better.



I have drawn a yellow line where the price has shot up strongly. Let's look back 3 days. You see how the course goes to point 4. Question: At what point 1,2 or 3 did demand dominate supply?

Correct answer: At point 3. From point 3, the course has almost gone through to point 4. Before, he has always run back. This line was thus a sign that the course there can again become bullish. No one could have guessed that the course became so strong.

This is not magic but simply supply, demand and balance. Every market is dependent on that. The big players may have much more money than I'll ever own, but these traders leave their mark on the market, and if you know how to do that, you can maximize your profits and limit losses. That's the advantage of the little ones, no one sees me in the market and fewest big players know that I often know what they are up to. If the big players are pursuing a strategy, they look in the orderbook where all the traders are positioned. They also find out where the buy or sell order is and so can do their thing to the detriment of many traders.

Actually, this is an exciting thing if you know who you are dealing with. I do not want to suggest that I always have the clarity, but with each passing day, my feeling and my experience is getting better and better. My advantage as a small trader is that no one perceives me. But I can see the tracks of the big players and just have to interpret them correctly. But this is easier than if there are no traces that you could interpret.

In the present time, it is not the big ones who eat the little ones, but the fast ones the slow ones.

And that is exactly our chance, which we should use.

I wish you a great day

best regards

Hello Bionek,

hank you for your further detailed explanation of the Equilibrium. The deeper I get into the subject, the more confused I am, but I also see something clearer at the same time

Hello Skipper13,

that's like all the new things you use for the first time. In the beginning everything is great. The longer you work with it, the more questions you come up with. The decisive thing is to be sustained. Most things will succeed if you hold out long enough. If you invest in a mutual fund as an investor you should not change every year just because there is a better fund. But the fees eat so much return that you would end up better in the bad fund and still has generated more return than to change annually in the best funds.

So stay tuned, you're on the right path.

best regards

Result of this morning


Hello dear traders,

I dropped off the following post this morning at 10:42 CET.



Score tonight 19:10 CET



That was 30 pip down and 60 pip up. The course went a bit over the resistance, but that was a bit of a meeting: Fed Chair Powell Testifies. Nevertheless, one could already guess what would happen this morning, my resistance line was right despite "Fed Chair Powell Testifies". Now you know why I do not bet on these meetings. I only care about supply, demand and balance.

Of course, I'm also often wrong, but you can see from this example how important it is to keep an eye on the Equilibrium.
If it does not always work, today 90 pip worked.

A lovely evening

best regards

Hello Techanalyst,

very good timing, but we now have a strong bullish pressure from below. Let's see how far the course comes up, until it goes further down. Our goal this year is 1,179 as the lowest point and 1,339 as the highest point.

I wish you continued success.

best regards