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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #9,721
  • Jan 30, 2018 5:37am Jan 30, 2018 5:37am
Filipo, thank you for the helpful clarification.

I had a couple of successful 'paper' trades last night (EJ and GJ short prior to their turns up) so feel ready to engage in live trading again.

Of course, fundamentally, it is not a complex strategy as BK8 noted at the beginning.

Best regards to all.
  • #9,722
  • Jan 30, 2018 12:38pm Jan 30, 2018 12:38pm
Hello
No trade for me.
All the best.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #9,723
  • Jan 30, 2018 1:06pm Jan 30, 2018 1:06pm
I am just concerned about opening trades at or before price action has crossed the central BB line (candle closed below/above the line) As noted above, often bounces occur and the main trend continues
  • #9,724
  • Jan 30, 2018 3:01pm Jan 30, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting Oddbjorg
Hello No trade for me.
As someone trying to get back to it, I did look hard for an entry, but I just don't see it. Glad Oddbjorg confirms.
  • #9,725
  • Jan 30, 2018 4:52pm Jan 30, 2018 4:52pm
Hello everyone thististhimy first post on FF, I've been studying and learning forex since late October 2017,2For the last week iveI been reading this thread and trading this strategy with a 70% win rate in my demo account. This truly is the easiest stratgey I've come across and I'm thankful to the creator bk8 .

I was wondering how long did most of you trade this strategy for and what is most of you guys win rates with it? Also I've not read the whole thread yet but if anyone has any thing they've added to the strategy please inform me
  • #9,726
  • Jan 30, 2018 4:52pm Jan 30, 2018 4:52pm
Ditto here too! I'm trying to sort out which of the strategies I've been testing to use & under which circumstances...this being one of them.
So, it's good to get confirmation from both of you. The U.S. State of the Union address may throw things off for a short period of time.
  • #9,727
  • Jan 30, 2018 9:10pm Jan 30, 2018 9:10pm
Quoting Oddbjorg
Hello No trade for me. All the best.

Same for me, at least until after FOMC and possibly for the all week with NFP on Friday in such directionless market.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,728
  • Jan 31, 2018 12:42pm Jan 31, 2018 12:42pm
Short signal on WTI. I am entering now on retracement bouncing from Bollinger middle band to reach S/R line. MACD divergence and bearish crossover with signal line supporting the short setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 709665A4-31F6-4916-8EE8-8D211569EE2D.png Size: 360 KB
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,729
  • Jan 31, 2018 1:46pm Jan 31, 2018 1:46pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_2585.PNG Size: 209 KB

Hello
We can see Aud is weaker than NZD. And sma pointing down. Candle has started its route through mid bb.
So there are some ++
But the unlively bb makes one think about this as a channel and being rather flat. - -
So we can ponder - and let it be and learn of it tomorrow.
All the best and take care.
Oddbjørg.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #9,730
  • Jan 31, 2018 6:02pm Jan 31, 2018 6:02pm
I know most of us check as the new market days opens (at whatever time that is for you), but if you like to keep watch take a look at the AUDUSD.

~. up over 600 pips, but . . .

~ current high very nearly equal to the last D1 swing high so at some resistance for sure

~ working on 4th consecutive down day

~ no, the SMA5 has not turned over, and we do not have a qualified entry (yet)

This bears watching . . . will it continue down to qualify for us OR is this another retrace enroute (perhaps) to a new higher high.

FS
  • #9,731
  • Feb 1, 2018 4:10am Feb 1, 2018 4:10am
Quoting Oddbjorg
{image} Hello We can see Aud is weaker than NZD. And sma pointing down. Candle has started its route through mid bb. So there are some ++ But the unlively bb makes one think about this as a channel and being rather flat. - - So we can ponder - and let it be and learn of it tomorrow. All the best and take care. Oddbjørg.
Hi Oddbjorg

No you're 100% right on weak AUD at the moment but I would look to trade this one all the way up to 1.80 - very bullish indeed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDDaily.png Size: 53 KB
  • #9,732
  • Feb 1, 2018 4:13am Feb 1, 2018 4:13am
Quoting Filipo1
Short signal on WTI. I am entering now on retracement bouncing from Bollinger middle band to reach S/R line. MACD divergence and bearish crossover with signal line supporting the short setup. {image}

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=734914
  • #9,733
  • Edited 5:37am Feb 1, 2018 5:16am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting Forest-Sea
I know most of us check as the new market days opens (at whatever time that is for you), but if you like to keep watch take a look at the AUDUSD. ~. up over 600 pips, but . . . ~ current high very nearly equal to the last D1 swing high so at some resistance for sure ~ working on 4th consecutive down day ~ no, the SMA5 has not turned over, and we do not have a qualified entry (yet) This bears watching . . . will it continue down to qualify for us OR is this another retrace enroute (perhaps) to a new higher high. FS
Hi Forest-sea, as far as it concerns this strategy, my understanding is that the market should open for the day at Sydney-open (whatever time that is for you). Thus there was a clear crossing down of the 5SMA at yesterday's close. it was coming from a resistant level and - for my reading - was confirmed by the MACD.
...and yes, it could got further down to 79ish or the up-trendline on the weekly around 76ish. But don't take my word for it

*last candle is today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bildschirmfoto 2018-02-01 um 12.56.15.png Size: 1.3 MB
  • #9,734
  • Feb 1, 2018 5:36am Feb 1, 2018 5:36am
Quoting Et2017
{quote} Hi Forest-sea, as far as it concerns this strategy, my understanding is that the market should open for the day at Sydney-open (whatever time that is for you). Thus there was a clear crossing down of the 5SMA at yesterday's close. it was coming from a resistant level and - for my reading - was confirmed by the MACD. ...and yes, it could got further down to 79ish or the up-trendline on the weekly around 76ish. But don't take my word for it {image}
...also USDJPY had given a nice signal. same scenario.

please don't scold me for not saying earlier. I will try next time.

*last candle is today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bildschirmfoto 2018-02-01 um 12.56.15.png Size: 1.3 MB
  • #9,735
  • Feb 1, 2018 5:51am Feb 1, 2018 5:51am
Quoting Filipo1
Short signal on WTI. I am entering now on retracement bouncing from Bollinger middle band to reach S/R line. MACD divergence and bearish crossover with signal line supporting the short setup. {image}
it's at a strong resistance indeed, but weekly and monthly look more as if it prepares a break up, doesn't it. But I have not much an idea about oil. just an opinion...
  • #9,736
  • Edited 7:30am Feb 1, 2018 6:37am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Et2017
{quote}Thus there was a clear crossing down of the 5SMA at yesterday's close. it was coming from a resistant level and - for my reading - was confirmed by the MACD. .. {image}
Hi Et, I like your image better. Actually, mine showed the sma 5 essentially flat while yours is clearly pointing down. Given how strong the up move has been I am not sure if I would have taken it at market open, but clearly it has moved down another 50 pips or so as of this note.

I think we read this the same with the exception of graph imagery which is slightly different probably due to small brokerage differences. I note an even larger difference in the sma 5 lines for the USDJPY. Yours is very clear. Concerning to me.

Thanks for your observations.
  • #9,737
  • Edited 7:07am Feb 1, 2018 6:57am | Edited 7:07am
I would not be so confident about a dollar reversal and largely prefer Oddbjorg's call for AUDNZD.

For USDJPY same comment could apply and Ichimoku analysis (nothing to do with this thread's strategy of course but just a personal additional confirmation for anything related to JPY at least) is not clearly showing a potential uptrend on the daily yet but just a test of the Tenkan-sen at best so far.

Regarding Oil this is a difficult asset to trade for sure due to the geo-politico-economic considerations around it. However the higher US production resulting from higher market prices coupled with yesterday's release of rising crude stockpiles remain worrying.

Just my 2 cents.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,738
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:24am Feb 1, 2018 7:24am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} 100% right on weak AUD at the moment but I would look to trade this one all the way up to 1.80 - very bullish indeed {image}
Jmtini -- no doubt you have done this, but would you mind sharing the numbers for your five lines? I expect the red is our standard sma 5 and the pink is probably a 200 (s or e)?

I see these have worked well for you . . . trying to fully understand what the forum leaders are doing.

Many thanks.

FS
  • #9,739
  • Feb 1, 2018 9:45am Feb 1, 2018 9:45am
Quoting Filipo1
I would not be so confident about a dollar reversal and largely prefer Oddbjorg's call for AUDNZD.

Agreed on dollar.
  • #9,740
  • Feb 1, 2018 10:33am Feb 1, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} Jmtini -- no doubt you have done this, but would you mind sharing the numbers for your five lines? I expect the red is our standard sma 5 and the pink is probably a 200 (s or e)? I see these have worked well for you . . . trying to fully understand what the forum leaders are doing. Many thanks. FS
Actually they are "in house"! But I will PM you
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