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  • #21
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:50am Dec 21, 2017 6:50am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Thank you for your post. I am glad you think the critics are right but they were referring specifically to TE not a third party website. The opening post has now been edited so thank you for a good suggestion: {quote} I will also include a link to Dream so you are able to see which strategies are rotated etc.
Yes. Hiding pending orders is also a good option. Thumbs up.
  • #22
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:54am Dec 21, 2017 6:54am
Dear subscribers,

For the remainder of December and the first week of January (festive period = slower market with less predictability), Diamond will reduce the risk per trade to 0.5%.

Quoting mw108
{quote} Yes. Hiding pending orders is also a good option. Thumbs up.
No, thank you! I am absolutely new to any form of selling signals or EAs so your guidance is very much appreciated.

Patience! We can't get the big moves unless the price moves some!
  • #23
  • Edited 11:49am Dec 22, 2017 8:10am | Edited 11:49am
Rotated out: Strategy 4143180 (failed the latest intermarket WFA ).
Rotated in: Strategy 10868281


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10388327#post10388327

An indy from the link above that is not getting the attention it deserves.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 nn.AllPivots.ex4   112 KB | 199 downloads
  • #24
  • Edited 4:03am Dec 23, 2017 3:18am | Edited 4:03am
Currently looking for indicators and systems to backtest.

Reviewing Davit's Pivot system at the moment, which according to the posts on the thread has a lot of merit. Due to the volume of available systems, I do not normally test the entire system but look at a key component of a system. If the key component has value, I will take the time to study the entire system. A key component of the Davit system is the TDI (located at the link below). I ran a very short (2 months or so) back test of manual trades using the TDI (I'm not concerned with high quality tick data tests at this point) and it shows a lot of promise so I will delve deeper into the Davit system including the Davit Pivots etc and will built a model based on it to see if the model can pass my rigorous robustness tests.

For those who have the time to manual trade and those who have the time to build Expert Advisors, I recommend you read Davit's thread because there is little point buying a subscription if you have the time to do it for yourself using a potentially excellent system such as the one Davit has introduced to FF. I've included a screenshot of nisha4x (https://www.forexfactory.com/nisha4x) alleged account after 22 days of trading and a picture Davit's alleged equity curve after a week. I write 'alleged' because only the actual trader knows if the results are legit because no other evidence is available but I believe the results are realistic if one is in possession of an outstanding edge with the discipline to execute.


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=588764
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf StrategyTester.pdf   151 KB | 434 downloads
  • #25
  • Edited 4:04am Dec 23, 2017 3:43am | Edited 4:04am
Link to another system (expert advisor) that seems robust although I wouldn't trade it because it doesn't meet my criteria. (Equity curve attached)
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10582849#post10582849


The Simple Daily Trend Reversal Trading System has been tested, it performs well in the current market structure but fails miserably over the long term. However, the most recent release is yet to be tested. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=713593
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  • #26
  • Dec 23, 2017 4:03am Dec 23, 2017 4:03am
Quoting mbrown
Link to another system (expert advisor) that seems robust although I wouldn't trade it because it doesn't meet my criteria. (Equity curve attached) https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10582849#post10582849 The Simple Daily Trend Reversal Trading System has been tested, it performs well in the current market structure but fail miserably over the long term. However, the most recent release is yet to be tested. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=713593 {image}
Im slightly lost. I thought you have your own EA or self auto system enough reliable for offer a subscription service. But now seeing this post im not sure how works your offer
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #27
  • Dec 23, 2017 4:15am Dec 23, 2017 4:15am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Im slightly lost. I thought you have your own EA or self auto system enough reliable for offer a subscription service. But now seeing this post im not sure how works your offer
Hi BB,

I do have my own EAs which are based on nothing I've seen on FF. Like you I am also a student of the market so I test systems out of curiousity. It is rare I'll find anything I would consider actually trading or refining because I already have my own modelling method that produces results.

I am merely posting random findings that maybe of value to thread visitors. I am seeking a specific type of subscriber over the long run. The type who hasn't the time to trade etc. Provided my system continues to produce returns, posting the links to free FF systems that have potential is not a threat or concern.

The focus is on my portfolio but I will also post other material to generate traffic and if I can also redirect the type of potential subscriber that will not be a good fit for my portfolio to a free FF system then it is a good thing.
  • #28
  • Dec 23, 2017 4:27am Dec 23, 2017 4:27am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Hi BB, I do have my own EAs which are based on nothing I've seen on FF. Like you I am also a student of the market so I test systems out of curiousity. It is rare I'll find anything I would consider actually trading or refining because I already have my own modelling method that produces results. I am merely posting random findings that maybe of value to thread visitors. I am seeking a specific type of subscriber over the long run. The type who hasn't the time to trade etc. Provided my system continues to produce returns, posting the links...
Ok. Now I understand your approach
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #29
  • Edited 11:00am Dec 23, 2017 7:01am | Edited 11:00am
Still looking at the Pivot system.

Review a number of pairs and it is clear at this point the TDI is the main driver behind the strategy and the money management approach of the thread, that is, we know TDI will time the turning points very well but sometime drawdowns will have to be absorbed before the actual turning point is initiated, thus scale your entries.

This approach should work equally well at any significant level be it market profile, volume profile, daily-weekly-monthly open-high-low, Pivots (D,W,M), Fibo levels, GANN levels basically the TDI seems to be a legit timing tool that can be used to support your S/R trading, the S/R need not be esoteric or fancy; as the main hurdle about S/R is whether a reaction at this level is valid, the TDI helps to eliminate much of the uncertainty and is the engine at the heart of the DAVIT Pivot System which is essentially a TDI system.
  • #30
  • Edited 10:11am Dec 23, 2017 9:59am | Edited 10:11am
Walk forwarding strategies that have already passed a number of tests on the live account incubator. Equity curve attached.

I could get over excited and start to pontificate about noob traders vs real traders and all that other arrogant bull-s*** but I know better. Why do I know better? Look at the next post.
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  • #31
  • Edited 10:16am Dec 23, 2017 10:02am | Edited 10:16am
Same model earlier period. We don't get over-excited about model performance in one market structural regime. We demand consistent performance over many years before we consider a model to be viable. The equity curve of the model looks great in the current market regime but is a DOG in a different regime.

We only include Diamonds and Stars in this portfolio that show consistent walk forward performance over at least 10 years and have demonstrated their edge in forward testing. Today's stars may be tomorrow's dogs so we proactively test then retest, continuously looking for model failure. We are wise and nimble enough to know a static model, EA or system can not extract supra-normal returns indefinitely.
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  • #32
  • Dec 23, 2017 10:08am Dec 23, 2017 10:08am
Nice stuff Mr.Brown... getting jealous
  • #33
  • Edited 10:33am Dec 23, 2017 10:19am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting 4xPIPAHOLIC
Nice stuff Mr.Brown... getting jealous
Hi Pip,

Thank you!

I'm mbrown. Mr.Brown is a different FF member.

The equity curve above is of a model that hasn't made it into the portfolio. It is a good model by most standards but the hurdle is very high for models to make it into the portfolio. Attached is the equity curve of one strategy in the portfolio for the same period (2015 to date).

Profits are less than the first example but the risk via the standard deviation of returns/sharpe is much lower and this one model doesn't dominate the other 20+ strategies currently in the portfolio which is a major consideration.
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  • #34
  • Dec 25, 2017 10:08am Dec 25, 2017 10:08am
Dear subscribers,

Trade size is further reduce to 0.01 until 02/01/2018 at which point it will increase to 1% risk (15pip SL) per trade.

I recommend you ignore all new trades until the 02/01/2018; this is an option on your EA. The live account will not be accepting new trades until the 02/01/2018.
  • #35
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:34am Dec 26, 2017 1:34am
A slow session so excuse the ramble.


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10619528#post10619528

Quote
Dec 25, 6:13pm - Single BTCUSD Long from 11k target 20k traded earlier then starting thread stop right below 8k

I love the above types of thread. Where the OP gives all the speel about how to trade and what not to do followed by an impossible to verify trade such as the BTC setup. Posted after the price has already moved by +20%. Interesting!
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  • #36
  • Edited 3:13am Dec 26, 2017 2:14am | Edited 3:13am
If I was manually intraday trading the EURUSD I'd be looking for buy confirmations at 1843 and sell confirmations at 1890 with the day's pivot at 1863.

If I was intraweek trading I'd be looking for buy confirms at 1782 and sell confirmations between 1862 to 1890 with the week's pivot at 1872.

In summary, we have already been into the weekly sell zone so bulls watch out. Although, I'm hoping the day will see 1890, weekly levels dominate the daily levels so 1890 is a 50/50 at this point.

Having written all the above... from the monthly perspective, I am very surprised 1.2 hasn't been reached this month. The probability of that level being hit was 97% based on statistics since the inception of the EURUSD to date which ultimately points to a VIOLENT sell-off if it isn't reached and a very high chance of January being a bear month but who knows.

Levels are nothing more than S/R and should be treated as such (a breach - and development above/below - ) turns support into resistance etc.

In summary v2: After confirmation (too many to mention, use the TDI if lost): Setup One: sell between 1890 and 1862. TP1 1843 then move SL to 1863. TP2 @ 1782. SL 20 TO 30 PIPS - ideal stop above 1900
In summary v2: After confirmation (too many to mention, use the TDI if lost): Setup Two: buy between 1900 and 1910. TP1 1200 then move SL to 1920. TP2 @ 2174. SL 20 TO 30 PIPS - ideal stop below 1900

Andrews Pitchfork attached: potential path of price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 41 KB
  • #37
  • Dec 29, 2017 1:35am Dec 29, 2017 1:35am
Quoting mbrown
In summary v2: After confirmation (too many to mention, use the TDI if lost): Setup Two: buy between 1900 and 1910. TP1 1200 then move SL to 1920. TP2 @ 2174. SL 20 TO 30 PIPS - ideal stop below 1900 Andrews Pitchfork attached: potential path of price. {image}
Setup two update: Move stops to 1955.
  • #38
  • Edited 4:20am Dec 29, 2017 4:08am | Edited 4:20am
Quote
cvds16 (https://www.forexfactory.com/cvds16): it's building a top here just put your stop above today's high and you will be fine
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10627169#post10627169

A bit too early to be making that call.
Attached Images
  • #39
  • Dec 29, 2017 4:53am Dec 29, 2017 4:53am
ADDITIONAL SUBSCRIPTIONS WILL END ON 07/01/2018

I didn't account for the amount of email work necessary behind the scenes and I also want the current subscribers to benefit from their first mover advantage. I love first movers!
  • #40
  • Dec 29, 2017 6:09am Dec 29, 2017 6:09am
Setup two update: Move stops to 1979

Start prepping and looking for downside confirmation. Likely developing price targets in chart below.

Caveat: US open - wait for confirmation after US open. Wait for 1979 to be taken out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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