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  • #1,138,741
  • Dec 13, 2017 9:25pm Dec 13, 2017 9:25pm
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  • #1,138,742
  • Dec 13, 2017 10:42pm Dec 13, 2017 10:42pm
Quoting fxtyrant
My Advise. Do not ignore 1. the Gap on the DXY ~92.80 2. the broken uptrend we are formulating today is indicative of more short term losses in DXY to be expected. Key is what currency is best to take advantage of a dollar weakness in the coming week or so. However do not expect major breakouts to formulate new trends. wont happen until 2018, liquidity is drying up as we speak for the year of 2017, so if you can avoid trading as we get closer to end of year. best try to avoid trading if you dont know what you are doing... low liquidity markets are...
Good day Mr how sure are you about this statement if your statement gets proven wrong you seem like a big expert at this if it goes sour my theory will be proven, which is there is no way we can tell which direction any of this is to going if they want something to go wrong they will come up with something that can in some way influence the chart and they will make sense of it and we will just have to believe this priced in priced out nobody knows the truth. Some how the same people who said bitcoin will not reach where it is now have a very thorough explanation as to why it is where it is now. The most biggest of experts still say it does not make sense, but hey we even have an explanation right now. How wander full. It all feels manipulated I have decided to trade long very long longer than long and see where it goes I believe in not to long a time from now the chart will go back down and then back up and then back down and then back up all a matter of time.
  • #1,138,743
  • Dec 13, 2017 11:03pm Dec 13, 2017 11:03pm
Expecting a rise to 1.19987 today then a fall back to 1.14786 in next week monday
  • #1,138,744
  • Dec 13, 2017 11:26pm Dec 13, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting Earst
Expecting a rise to 1.19987 today then a fall back to 1.14786 in next week monday
Why do you expect that?
  • #1,138,745
  • Edited 11:59pm Dec 13, 2017 11:35pm | Edited 11:59pm
Quoting Earst
{quote} Good day Mr how sure are you about this statement if your statement gets proven wrong you seem like a big expert at this if it goes sour my theory will be proven, which is there is no way we can tell which direction any of this is to going if they want something to go wrong they will come up with something that can in some way influence the chart and they will make sense of it and we will just have to believe this priced in priced out nobody knows the truth. Some how the same people who said bitcoin will not reach where it is now have a...
Buddy, if the Dollar rallied for last 7 days ahead of FOMC, on an expectation that FOMC was gona hike interest rates then dollar was pricing in the hike....
The risk however is not on dollar to further appreciation when the news comes out. this is classic buy ahead and sell on the news....
thats what happened to the USD last night...
another factor that needs to be considered is the fact that US Core CPI figures came in soft, so it was going to be bearish dollar, big money just prefered to see what the outcome of FOMC was before they began dumping.

Now I actually put faith in price action more often than not.... because thats the only reliable way to interpret where the price is going since everybody uses some form of chart to make their trade. just a matter if you know how to properly interpret what the big money is going to do.

With regards to Bitcoin.... the so called "Experts" who say it doesnt make sense are actually the ones buying it up....

didnt you read articles like CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud, yet JP Morgan's Prime brokerage assisted its prime clients to execute trades into buying Bitcoin....
there are actual experts in certain fields but no one of them are really well known.... just like the expert who predicted the 2008 crash Dr. Michael Burry, who predicted the financial crash, no body listened to him...

its about time you start to change your perception. Banks may have all the money, but they are not the one placing big conviction trade.. its the buy-side fund houses like the blackrocks, vanguard, the pension funds the mutual funds like schroeders, or the hedgefunds and algo funds like citadel, point 72 etc etc.... , and that Banks aren't really experts, Banks dish out research and analysis to get people into doing transactions with them so they meet their KPI.... They dont actually care if their analysis ends up making their clients big money or not. all they care is if the research they give out is going to lead to business and business leads to commissions and fees chargeable, which is part of their KPI.... Understand the drivers behind different stakeholders and you'll see things more clearly.


Btw Forex is perhaps the LEAST manipulated asset class, unless you're trading currencies that have low liquidity or not popularly traded.... otherwise the EURUSD respects quite a few drivers....

1. Bund Yields
2. Invers to the Stoxx, if stoxx selloff Euro maybe demanded.
3. DXY fall, 50% is going to drive EURUSD up. because of DXY basket.
4. Mon policy divergences, it respects quite well the German 2Y Bund vs US 2Y Treasury Yield Spread.
5. It also respects to some certain extent on the FX derivatives, keep an eye out at the ATM Risk Reversal Vols, if Vols are going up, as we approach a major resistance or support, if Risk Reversal Vol is up as we hit a resistance, it means theres someone buying risk reversal options driving Option premium up, only reason that happens is whoevers buying the option for risk reversal is expecting a reversal or the resistance to hold for example...

Attached is an hourly chart of EURUSD in Orange and EU Vs US 2Year Treasury Spread. now they are not of the same axis but their movement are quite correlated.... notice how yesterday's EURUSD move up is due to EU treasury Yield rising against the US Treasury Yield.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #1,138,746
  • Dec 13, 2017 11:58pm Dec 13, 2017 11:58pm
buy this dip soon (near 1800 area). TP 1880. SL 20-25 points max.
  • #1,138,747
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:02am Dec 14, 2017 12:02am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} Why do you expect that?
"The rhetoric is bullish bias engulfing bears"

The bulls and the bears are both biased the system is used for trade purposes of exports and imports if everyone joined forex outside of the export and import and everyone made a profit then the system would crash or the investors of inflation export purchasing would be null and void. So this brings me to the chart being balanced in order for the system to work. When we place stop losses the biased animals engulf all of them it goes up and down until it makes a profit, then it makes its direction towards where ever it needs to be placed, but first it must make the profit, otherwise it would just incur a big loss to all the traders of currency outside of exports and imports.
  • #1,138,748
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:06am Dec 14, 2017 12:06am
Quoting Earst
{quote} "The rhetoric is bullish bias engulfing bears" The bulls and the bears are both biased the system is used for trade purposes of exports and imports if everyone joined forex outside of the export and import and everyone made a profit then the system would crash or the investors of inflation export purchasing would be null and void. So this brings me to the chart being balanced in order for the system to work. When we place stop losses the biased animals engulf all of them it goes up and down until it makes a profit, then it makes its direction...
Forex is not just used for exports and imports.....

the forex trades based on imports and exports and actual corporate demands are called Flow trades. banks make very little commission out of it..... however its thanks to those flow trades which allows the sell-side bankers to take speculative positions as the flow trade form their corporate clients acts as a cushion in their books....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #1,138,749
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:10am Dec 14, 2017 12:10am
Quoting Aleksbuk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrjxjqWH6fc
Your chart is indicating euro at around 1.19, but it's nowhere near that, and the top now has been at 1.184. Can you explain this please? I'm really confused.
  • #1,138,750
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:12am Dec 14, 2017 12:12am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Buddy, if the Dollar rallied for last 7 days ahead of FOMC, on an expectation that FOMC was gona hike interest rates then dollar was pricing in the hike.... The risk however is not on dollar to further appreciation when the news comes out. this is classic buy ahead and sell on the news.... thats what happened to the USD last night... another factor that needs to be considered is the fact that US Core CPI figures came in soft, so it was going to be bearish dollar, big money just prefered to see what the outcome of FOMC was before they began...
I see I agree with your logic makes perfect sense thank you for the information this is a very clear analytical explanation, would love to get more information like this please continue updating so we can have a broader picture of all the various factory. Thank you so much enjoy the rest of your day.
  • #1,138,751
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:18am Dec 14, 2017 12:18am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Forex is not just used for exports and imports..... the forex trades based on imports and exports and actual corporate demands are called Flow trades. banks make very little commission out of it..... however its thanks to those flow trades which allows the sell-side bankers to take speculative positions as the flow trade form their corporate clients acts as a cushion in their books....
I hear you ok, Ill go back to my research Lol. I am not scared of a loss, I take the loss in order for me to grow, what you are saying is clear.
  • #1,138,752
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:21am Dec 14, 2017 12:21am
Also, my 4h indicating a sell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,138,753
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:21am Dec 14, 2017 12:21am
Quoting Earst
{quote} I hear you ok, Ill go back to my research Lol. I am not scared of a loss, I take the loss in order for me to grow, what you are saying is clear.
Lets see where we will be after the 3 pm EUR data or now at 11 am.
  • #1,138,754
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:22am Dec 14, 2017 12:22am
let's do this mofos!

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  • #1,138,755
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:39am Dec 14, 2017 12:39am
Quoting Earst
{quote} I see I agree with your logic makes perfect sense thank you for the information this is a very clear analytical explanation, would love to get more information like this please continue updating so we can have a broader picture of all the various factory. Thank you so much enjoy the rest of your day.
actually the Yield spread between EU 2 Year Bond vs US 2 Year Bond, is something the bank guys look at quite often to see if the Exchange rate is diverging away or converging with the Spot rates....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #1,138,756
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:41am Dec 14, 2017 12:41am
Significant retracement on the Daily tf, but the trend remains bearish, so pullback selling opportunity may be formed soon
  • #1,138,757
  • Dec 14, 2017 12:50am Dec 14, 2017 12:50am
Quoting Jonstaples
{quote} USD was pressured across the board and the DXY gave up the 94.00 level however, losses in the greenback was slowed ahead of a widely anticipated Fed hike later today. Well I got short yesterday @ 1.1774 and expecting it to continuing falling until 1.1680. A key level to watch for is 1.1730 for me the point of no return if it breaks.

Looks like 1.1730 held strongly and also rallied strongly breaking above the 1.1805 resistance. Could this be the last breath of the bulls or just the beginning?

On the economic news we got the With the ECB pre-announcing its asset purchasing program taper at the beginning of November, there is no much on the agenda for the ECB to deliver before Christmas.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.19BLN), 1.1800 (1.2BLN), 1.1815-20 (1.12BLN), 1.1860 (728M), 1.1864-65 (757M), 1.1900 (601M).
  • #1,138,758
  • Dec 14, 2017 1:08am Dec 14, 2017 1:08am
Confirmation for short.
  • #1,138,759
  • Dec 14, 2017 1:21am Dec 14, 2017 1:21am
Now it seems to me that the price should go down to the bottom of the blue line. Or it will go a little higher up to resistance 1.1860
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Dont hurry in three situations: marriage, sex, trade.
  • #1,138,760
  • Dec 14, 2017 1:23am Dec 14, 2017 1:23am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Confirmation for short.
please don't do it.
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