The Swamp | Page 645 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #12,881
  • Dec 8, 2017 7:31am Dec 8, 2017 7:31am
Quoting Traderak
looking like going on down trade...weak retrace.
can't see any relevant trades. EURUSD momentum slowly shifting in favor of bulls but the floor not set yet imo.
  • #12,882
  • Dec 8, 2017 7:54am Dec 8, 2017 7:54am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} can't see any relevant trades. EURUSD momentum slowly shifting in favor of bulls but the floor not set yet imo.
From a technical standpoint I agree with you.
From a graphical I do not.
Maybe we need a stronger retrace, I donīt know.
PA has not left the downward channel atm.
I expect a stronger upward movement later in the day.
  • #12,883
  • Dec 8, 2017 7:59am Dec 8, 2017 7:59am
love London fix.. do sth exciting about this......only 47 pips range for NFP day...we need some actions.... .... maybe institutions are preparing for the big move next week..with FOMC and ECB .....can't wait to see the COT report this afternoon..to see what they are up to.. I will let you know later...
  • #12,884
  • Dec 8, 2017 8:01am Dec 8, 2017 8:01am
Quoting Boulder
love London fix.. do sth exciting about this......only 47 pips range for NFP day...we need some actions.... ..
Manipulators
  • #12,885
  • Edited 9:04am Dec 8, 2017 8:41am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting asgcorp
I've posted this USDCHF chart is EURUSD thread a few days ago. Why do you want to go long EURUSD when USDCHF bull flag broke out to the upside on daily? {image}

looks like a strong market, would like to try some longs next week....

have a good weekend everybody, enjoy...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4.png Size: 42 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #12,886
  • Dec 8, 2017 9:54am Dec 8, 2017 9:54am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} looks like a strong market, would like to try some longs next week.... have a good weekend everybody, enjoy... {image}
yep. USDCHF is strong. Cause it's 90% correl to DXY. But DXY has to reload before resuming this run. Pullback required now. Better entry coming up (lower).
  • #12,887
  • Dec 8, 2017 10:32am Dec 8, 2017 10:32am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} From a technical standpoint I agree with you. From a graphical I do not. Maybe we need a stronger retrace, I donīt know. PA has not left the downward channel atm. I expect a stronger upward movement later in the day.
looking @ H4 I see (somewhat) what you mean. The pattern though has been that all rips got sold. I see what you are looking @ on H4, but it ain't that strong yet to be honest. I figure rips (1780 max) will get sold.
  • #12,888
  • Dec 8, 2017 10:35am Dec 8, 2017 10:35am
Quoting gatorinla
u cant trust a 15 min chart.. on a 15 chart,, bitcoin may hit 1174.89 in a days or so. in a ponzi it needs to get more buyers to keep the price up. the base has to broaden (more buyers on top) to keep the base owners holding (with low cost profit) and not being spooked running all to exit the same time. it's built just like a pyramid. the early base can leave on a whim and tp.. {image}
i dont have a dog in the bitcoin race. odds are this beast is too big for my 15 min chart..it did retrace to the minimum in the earlier chart. lets see, if it can go back to 1,1774.xx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 23 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,889
  • Dec 8, 2017 10:39am Dec 8, 2017 10:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont have a dog in the bitcoin race. odds are this beast is too big for my 15 min chart..it did retrace to the minimum in the earlier chart. lets see, if it can go back to 1,1774.xx {image}
H4 looks like falling wedge to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 41 KB
  • #12,890
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:21am Dec 8, 2017 11:21am
time to kickback and relax.

Inserted Video
  • #12,891
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:32am Dec 8, 2017 11:32am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} looks like a strong market, would like to try some longs next week.{image}
I agree with you PTL. A better plan, yes, looking @ confluence with EURUSD. Have a nice weekend buddy!
  • #12,892
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:43am Dec 8, 2017 11:43am
Quoting asgcorp
EURUSD. 1780 bulls will fail and rips will get sold. Floor is not set. {image}
Yes, looks tempting for Monday.
OTOH it is one of the best rejected daily candles ever been
Without it I would be with you.
  • #12,893
  • Edited 12:33pm Dec 8, 2017 12:13pm | Edited 12:33pm
Euro On 12/8/2017 at 3pam est. BLDR system update :
H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1777 Running Period: 79 hours
H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1844, Running Period: 19 x H4
Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1680, Running Period: 12 days
( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

H1 trend at the extreme late stage due for reversal....be careful...
  • #12,894
  • Dec 8, 2017 12:43pm Dec 8, 2017 12:43pm
Closed the shop, worst day of the week, 5 green pips
Traded like a lame duck, all my faults.

It is snowing outside for the first time at my place this winter and it is just looking great!!!

Cya all next week.
  • #12,895
  • Dec 8, 2017 2:17pm Dec 8, 2017 2:17pm
Green week for me. Have a good weekend everyone.

Inserted Video
Focus.
  • #12,896
  • Edited 3:02pm Dec 8, 2017 2:45pm | Edited 3:02pm
Here is the latest COT report from the institutions, hedgefunds, showing their positions
On 12/5/2017 COT report, I see the institutions barely added longs 240, still 205K, and closed some shorts 3,185
from 115K to 112K
This comes as price rallies upwards to 1940 then backdown to 1800s at the close of the report.
65% long exposure vs short exposure 35%, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts from previous week
Both long positions and short positions are actually above their 3 month averages at the moment.
Net positions( long) increased from previous week 89k to 93k
so when price does pullback to 1800s they didn't add their longs. Barely closed their shorts,
that may tell you something...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT 12052017.png Size: 31 KB
  • #12,897
  • Edited 4:02pm Dec 8, 2017 3:52pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting Boulder
Euro On 12/8/2017 at 3pam est. BLDR system update : H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1777 Running Period: 79 hours H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1844, Running Period: 19 x H4 Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1680, Running Period: 12 days ( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action) H1 trend at the extreme late stage due for reversal....be careful...
looks like a test of 1811 again. b4 a possible L 1750ish.. on st chart. 1811 may be R now. the bullish scenario had it reaching 1706/1542 b4 2164, it's also the older norm.
old 2014 close at (1.2100) close stoped it last try..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,898
  • Edited 9:16pm Dec 8, 2017 4:17pm | Edited 9:16pm
Yes Gator, Euro broke low 5 days in a row.. it is due for a bounce.. I don't know how far it can go, hope not over H4 stop, since EUR/USD is crowded long by institutions currently . I kind don't feel they want to add lot more longs when we go into 18xxs and above.. by reading this week COT report...
  • #12,899
  • Dec 9, 2017 2:50pm Dec 9, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont have a dog in the bitcoin race. odds are this beast is too big for my 15 min chart..it did retrace to the minimum in the earlier chart. lets see, if it can go back to 1,1774.xx {image}
bitcoin made that LL... 1,2662.65.. 20% drop so far. same 15 minute projection swapped to a 1h chart. for entertainment purposes only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 25 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,900
  • Dec 9, 2017 3:03pm Dec 9, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bitcoin made that LL... 1,2662.65.. 20% drop so far. same 15 minute projection swapped to a 1h chart. for entertainment purposes only. {image}
the last 1h candle looks straight up bullish.. at 14645 area, it may start that decent to that 11,xxx handle circled on chart.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
58 traders viewing now