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The Paradox System

  • #12,181
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:23pm Nov 19, 2017 6:23pm
Notes for Readjustment: Called away from my computer (wife) post open and missed all the post open fun out of Germany!
With crossing of Daily White/purple, Daily MCAD, H4 EMA, full-blown downtrend appears imminent.

Rules: 1) Trade only with Trend
2) When in trend enter on pull back (to 23.6 fibo resistance)

Entry: Short at 131.735

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,182
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:52pm Nov 19, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting HappyFaces
{quote} Yes but is "unscheduled impact", i have read several times that, the only news that we focus is in ForexFactory Calendar. If u are in a trade, how u know that kind of news is going to appear?
You don't - that is part of the risk in trading. But - unscheduled news don't happen that often and usually when it does happen - it is with the trend.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #12,183
  • Nov 19, 2017 9:28pm Nov 19, 2017 9:28pm
Quoting Andiroo
Big Red news currently my friends - not a missile this time, could actually be worse (for the Euro)... Cheers, Andy
Thanks Andy for the heads up, was just wondering what happened between 12:00am and now
Will have to adjust my plan
  • #12,184
  • Nov 20, 2017 1:34am Nov 20, 2017 1:34am
PLAN 16/11/2018 -LONDON

NEWS: ECB President Draghi Speaks - in 7 and 9 hours

Daily
Romar: Support
EMA: Support
PSAR: Resistance , just fliped not locked
DBSAR:down at 131.155
fibo: green
MACD: Up
EMA Arrow: Down
Notes: Market out of balance with purple

H4
Romar: Resistance
EMA:Resistance
PSAR: Resistance
fibo: Green
Notes: 4Horsemen down and DB attached out side lower BB at 131.15


H2
Romar: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance
DB + SAR bottom at 131.15
fibo: Green
MACD: Down
EMA Arrow Down
Notes: CLEAR DOWNTREND

H1
Romar: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance
fibo: Green
MACD: Up
EMA Arrow:down
Notes: purple crossed white. the rest is a clear downtrend

Final notes: 1H+2H+4h in a strong downtrend. Daily imbalanced with ROMAR and EMA still support.
We are in consolidation -trend down.
Entry:I will look for an entry short from a HIGH resistance such a 2H PSAR with confluence (4H smooth/ daily ROMAR/ 2H SAR attached)
  • #12,185
  • Nov 20, 2017 2:05am Nov 20, 2017 2:05am
Good Morning Traders

Here is my trade from today, and also Friday:

Daily Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily showing ROMAR, EMA and PSAR as Support with EMA/ROMAR just crossed. Fibo Red.

4hr Chart:

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4hr Chart showing the move up and the DB/SAR separate at the top - which tells me to watch out for something (look at the 2hr and tell me what it is?!).

2hr Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2hr chart showing the entry on Friday and the entry this morning.

The entry Friday was a straightforward DB/SAR from Support. The SAR came in but I knew I was waiting for a deeper pullback to Support because the DB/SAR were running separately. On Friday the market was still technically in Consolidation - so following the PSAR rule being eliminated on the cross of White/Purple, that stopped me from making a mistake of entering with the SAR a PSAR and made me wait a bar for the DB/SAR at ROMAR.

This morning I made an entry with the close/open above Smooth on the 2hr. Notice how I am trading mainly in the same direction as the Daily trend? Even in Consolidation, I was still mainly trading with ROMAR backing me up. Don't fight the Daily and you will find your life as a Trader much easier. When the 2hr and 4hr tell you too, you can then trade the Transition.

The entry today was a one bar trade, very quick.

Here is the screen print:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hope that helps.

Regards

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,186
  • Nov 20, 2017 2:35am Nov 20, 2017 2:35am
NEWS: 09:00 High Impact EUR
Sunday Plan

Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Parabolic - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 131.155
Last SAR Attachment - Top at 131.155
Fibonacci - Green

Notes: ROMAR support, EMA and Parabolic support but heading for the crossings and flip on the next candle. At the moment they are support though. New daily open below ROMAR support with DB/SAR on bottom with standard and hidden divergence at 0.0 of a green fibo. Imbalance with Purple 110 pips.

H4:

ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
Parabolic - Resistance

Checklist:

Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 131.155
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom with DB at 131.155
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: H4 down with ROMAR, EMA and Parabolic. DB/SAR on bottom at 0.0 green fibo, outside the box flip. 23.6 resistance. 4 horsemen steep down.

H2:

ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
Parabolic - Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 131.155
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom with DB at 131.155
Fibonacci - Green

Notes: H2 down full blown with ROMAR, EMA and Parabolic. 23.6 resistance. DB/SAR on bottom at the green fibo at 0.0. Lower band hit with the news spike down, bands now wide open.

H1:

ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
Parabolic - Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Fibonacci - Green

Notes: H1 down with ROMAR, EMA and Parabolic. Lower band hit in the downtrend. Market at the bottom of green fibo.

Final Notes: Daily is up with ROMAR, EMA and Parabolic in the moment. Not anticipating but it will take a 120 pip spike up to have EMA and Purple slide on the next candle, but for the purpose of this plan they are support. Market below ROMAR support and will return back, but with all other charts showing a strong downtrend, it may take a consolidation at the bottom before the turn back up. H4 has ROMAR crossing EMA for the down. I see divergence on the daily, with a lower low made with the market and MACD a higher low.

Rules: Daily below ROMAR support, must get back above. Consolidation, green fibo, daily imbalance with Purple, trading up from the bottom.

Actual Entry: Long on 21:00 open candle.

Evaluation: Got my 40 with the spike up. I missed the lower band hit due to not being at the monitor, but I could see this going up with the reasons mentioned. I had 40 to H2 EMA, at which SAR just attached so glad I got out before that. Took me into some drawdown on this trade, this was a bit sloppy to be honest, will fix it for next time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,187
  • Nov 20, 2017 3:08am Nov 20, 2017 3:08am
Entered SHORT
Basic rules:
a: Do not trade against the trend.
d: The 2 hour chart is your trend chart for the system.
Rules for downtrends:
a: ROMAR and EMA must be in sync on both 1 and 2 hour to trade short.
a: The 1 hour is your reference chart with the 2 hour trend chart.
b: You are looking for sync of both ROMAR and EMA uptrend on both the 1 and 2 hour charts to enter a trade.
c: Trades are made from the resistance area to go short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,188
  • Nov 20, 2017 4:04am Nov 20, 2017 4:04am
Date: Opening of Friday 18-11-17
News : Draghi Speech at 3:00 and 5:00 PM CET

Daily:
ROMAR – Support
EMA – Support
PSAR – Support - Eliminated

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - UP
Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN
Last DB Attachment – DB/SAR attached on top at 133.864
Fibo up or down – UP

Notes: Purple/white crossing down Eliminating PSAR support. DB/SAR on top above 61.8 FIBO with Magenta Divergence. Market closed opened below PSAR/EMA support without SAR. ROMAR is support 20 pips below opening.
4 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR – Resistance

Check List:
Last DB Attachment – DB/SAR attached at the bottom at 132.038
Fibo up or down – DOWN

Notes: The 4 horsemen are in strong trend south. Purple has crossed ROMAR down. Last 3 bars openend below ROMAR support. EMA at ROMAR about to cross down for the change of trend. BB bands are spreading for the continuation of the trend down.


2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 132.116
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing – DOWN
Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN
Last DB Attachment – DB/SAR attached at the bottom at 132.038
Fibo up or down - UP

Notes: Full downtrend. EMA has crossed ROMAR DOWN. 4 horsemen are strong in the downtrend. BB bands are spreading for the continuation of the trend. DB/SAR is attached at the bottom with both divergences. FIBO is up but can be bumped down a few times since H2 is trending.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Notes: Full downtrend. 4 Horsemen down. Market opened above Purple and below Smooth resistance.

Final Notes : With H4 EMA at ROMAR crossing, we are in a full downtrend on smaller timeframes. ROMAR/EMA/PSAR are in sync for the down.
The Daily is in uptrend with ROMAR/EMA/PSAR up. So We are in a consolidated downtrend. The daily opened below PSAR support with purple/white crossing eliminating PSAR.
In that situation, and with the H2/H4 horsemen strong in the downtrend, I would be looking for a short but the problem is ROMAR holding support 20 pips below opening and Daily EMA still being Support.
My entry would be a retrace on H2 toward ROMAR resistance and enter short provided I have enough pips to Daily ROMAR support.

Notes for readjustments:
09:00 CET Adjustment :
Sunday’s Daily bar Dropped 80 pips and closed below ROMAR support with DB/SAR attached at the bottom and GREEN FIBO. The rule says the market must get back above Daily ROMAR support. PSAR flipped down but not locked in. Purple near EMA for the crossing down.
ON H4 the FIB flipped Green as well.
The market started a retrace on H2 with and opening above Smooth support and the SAR attaching on top of the current bar. Purple at white but no crossing yet

ENTRY :
Short : H2 SAR attached below ROMAR resistance above PSAR resistance. H4 SAR attached above EMA resistance just below ROMAR resistance.
Hit on 38.2 Daily FIBO resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2.png Size: 66 KB
  • #12,189
  • Nov 20, 2017 6:38am Nov 20, 2017 6:38am
Quoting Therapsid
Notes for Readjustment: Called away from my computer (wife) post open and missed all the post open fun out of Germany! With crossing of Daily White/purple, Daily MCAD, H4 EMA, full-blown downtrend appears imminent. Rules: 1) Trade only with Trend 2) When in trend enter on pull back (to 23.6 fibo resistance) Entry: Short at 131.735 {image}
Self-evaluation:
Took +40 from the market.
I hadn't seen this before. Virtually no gap at open then an explosion of immense volatility. Support was found some +70 pips below Daily ROMAR, which was lower than my original trading plan had foreseen. Interestingly, had I then followed my initial plan (to go long) and entered long off of the lower BB hit my plan would have played out +40. As it was my readjusted plan followed the rules "in the moment" and achieved +40. I'm okay with that.
-Mark
  • #12,190
  • Nov 20, 2017 7:45am Nov 20, 2017 7:45am
Quoting Therapsid
{quote} Self-evaluation: Took +40 from the market. I hadn't seen this before. Virtually no gap at open then an explosion of immense volatility. Support was found some +70 pips below Daily ROMAR, which was lower than my original trading plan had foreseen. Interestingly, had I then followed my initial plan (to go long) and entered long off of the lower BB hit my plan would have played out +40. As it was my readjusted plan followed the rules "in the moment" and achieved +40. I'm okay with that. -Mark
Hello Mark

That's probably an entry I wouldn't take because 1) Its mid candle and 2) There has been multiple BB tags in Consolidation.

I think that a long on the open was "The" trade, but I have done sneaky trades like that before. I'm not massively in-tune with EJ as I really only trade GU nowadays but that's a trade to be careful of.

Hope that helps.

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,191
  • Nov 20, 2017 7:53am Nov 20, 2017 7:53am
Quoting shinny
{quote} Hello Mark That's probably an entry I wouldn't take because 1) Its mid candle and 2) There has been multiple BB tags in Consolidation. I think that a long on the open was "The" trade, but I have done sneaky trades like that before. I'm not massively in-tune with EJ as I really only trade GU nowadays but that's a trade to be careful of. Hope that helps. Shaun
Yes I agree! Thanks Shaun! Much appreciate the feedback!

The explosion of volatility threw me a bit (and as stated I was away from my computer when it happened). My best/safest entry was long off the BB hit which would have been in keeping with my original trading plan (just much lower than expected).
-Mark
  • #12,192
  • Nov 20, 2017 7:54am Nov 20, 2017 7:54am
Quoting Therapsid
{quote} Yes I agree! Thanks Shaun! Much appreciate the feedback! The explosion of volatility threw me a bit (and as stated I was away from my computer when it happened). My best/safest entry was long off the BB hit which would have been in keeping with my original trading plan (just much lower than expected). -Mark
When everyone has finished their trades we will go through this scenario as I have noticed a few things on some plans. But yes, your initial plan was spot on for the entry.

Regards

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,193
  • Nov 20, 2017 8:47am Nov 20, 2017 8:47am
Quoting HappyFaces
Date:20 November 2017 00:00 Broker TIME 9am and 11 am RED EUR NEWS Daily ROMAR:Support EMA:Support PSAR: Support (Flip to Resistance current candle, but need to close) Check List Last MACD 0 Crossingown Last EMA Alert Arrowown Last DB/SAR AttachmentB/SAR Bottom at 131.155 Fibo Up or Down:Fibo is Green Up Notes: Daily Chart Uptrend with Purple Crossing White. Market Open Bellow Romar with a New Green Fibo. ******** 4 Hour Chart ROMAR:Resistance EMA:Resistance PSAR:Resistance Check List Last DB/SAR AttachmentB/SAR Bottom at...

TP Hit +40, almost for 3 pips didnt hit my TP in the first candle... but i knew it that is going to retrace or consolidation before the retracement, and my SL is not going to be hit because "im at the bottom of the fibo" in all charts with the touch of lower BB in h1 h2 h4 with enough space for go up.
  • #12,194
  • Nov 20, 2017 9:54am Nov 20, 2017 9:54am
Quoting HappyFaces
Date:20 November 2017 00:00 Broker TIME 9am and 11 am RED EUR NEWS Daily ROMAR:Support EMA:Support PSAR: Support (Flip to Resistance current candle, but need to close) Check List Last MACD 0 Crossingown Last EMA Alert Arrowown Last DB/SAR AttachmentB/SAR Bottom at 131.155 Fibo Up or Down:Fibo is Green Up Notes: Daily Chart Uptrend with Purple Crossing White. Market Open Bellow Romar with a New Green Fibo. ******** 4 Hour Chart ROMAR:Resistance EMA:Resistance PSAR:Resistance Check List Last DB/SAR AttachmentB/SAR Bottom at...
Excellent trade - well done!
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,195
  • Nov 20, 2017 10:56am Nov 20, 2017 10:56am
Quoting pipon
Entered SHORT Basic rules: a: Do not trade against the trend. d: The 2 hour chart is your trend chart for the system. Rules for downtrends: a: ROMAR and EMA must be in sync on both 1 and 2 hour to trade short. a: The 1 hour is your reference char
Trade Evaluation :
Trade ended with 40+ pips. Basically I had a hard time being sure if I need to use the rules for downtrend or consolidation. In both cases selling from resistance is a good idea so I went for that.
The main thing that kept me calm and faithful (about the trade) was the ROMAR and PSAR on the 4H and 2H as strong resistance just above price.

All and all a good trade IMOA
PLEASE feel free to comment , I want to learn...

pipon
  • #12,196
  • Nov 20, 2017 10:56am Nov 20, 2017 10:56am
Quoting shinny
{quote} Excellent trade - well done!
Thank you Shinny HappyFaces
  • #12,197
  • Nov 20, 2017 11:16am Nov 20, 2017 11:16am
Quoting Sorel
Date: Opening of Friday 18-11-17 News : Draghi Speech at 3:00 and 5:00 PM CET Daily: ROMAR – Support EMA – Support PSAR – Support - Eliminated Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - UP Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN Last DB Attachment – DB/SAR attached on top at 133.864 Fibo up or down – UP Notes: Purple/white crossing down Eliminating PSAR support. DB/SAR on top above 61.8 FIBO with Magenta Divergence. Market closed opened below PSAR/EMA support without SAR. ROMAR is support 20 pips below opening. 4 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Resistance PSAR – Resistance...
Self-Evaluation : Went out with +15 pips 5 minutes before RED news. When I entered there was confluence with SAR connection on both H2/H4, hit off H2 PSAR in confluence with hit off H4 EMA resistance and Daily 38.2 FIBO so I think it was a good entry.
  • #12,198
  • Nov 20, 2017 11:28am Nov 20, 2017 11:28am
Quoting pipon
{quote} Trade Evaluation : Trade ended with 40+ pips. Basically I had a hard time being sure if I need to use the rules for downtrend or consolidation. In both cases selling from resistance is a good idea so I went for that. The main thing that kept me calm and faithful (about the trade) was the ROMAR and PSAR on the 4H and 2H as strong resistance just above price. All and all a good trade IMOA PLEASE feel free to comment , I want to learn... pipon
Hi Pipon

Well you got your 40 by entering mid-candle, but you forgot the rule about ROMAR. Look at Nikkis plan and see what he wrote in his notes. Be very careful about entering mid-candle, because it can burn you very badly.

The entry was the long from the bottom like HappyFaces and others did.

Hope that helps mate.

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,199
  • Nov 20, 2017 11:45am Nov 20, 2017 11:45am
Quoting Sorel
{quote} Self-Evaluation : Went out with +15 pips 5 minutes before RED news. When I entered there was confluence with SAR connection on both H2/H4, hit off H2 PSAR in confluence with hit off H4 EMA resistance and Daily 38.2 FIBO so I think it was a good entry.
You had the all important ROMAR rule in your plan, so well done for that. I'm guessing you weren't around at the time to take the long?

Also, importantly, if you miss what looks to be the "trade of the day" don't be afraid to walk away without taking a trade. The system is set up basically to get 40 pips per day, but there are days where the risk is too much to get 40, and other days when you could pull in 120 pips.

So, if you miss a day or two of getting 40 pips, its not a problem. You don't have to average 40 pips per day to do well, sometimes its best to leave it for the day and come back later rather than take a trade that maybe isn't 100%.

Cheers

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #12,200
  • Nov 20, 2017 12:18pm Nov 20, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting shinny
{quote} You had the all important ROMAR rule in your plan, so well done for that. I'm guessing you weren't around at the time to take the long? Also, importantly, if you miss what looks to be the "trade of the day" don't be afraid to walk away without taking a trade. The system is set up basically to get 40 pips per day, but there are days where the risk is too much to get 40, and other days when you could pull in 120 pips. So, if you miss a day or two of getting 40 pips, its not a problem. You don't have to average 40 pips per day to do well, sometimes...
Thank you very much for your feedback shaun!

You're right when I woke up H2 had opened above smooth but was too close to H2 EMA resistance for me to consider going long.

That's great advice! I'll definitely try to be more selective and try not to fish for an entry point.

Cheers
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