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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #36,361
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:34am Nov 16, 2017 5:34am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl = be now.
sl hit. +-0
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #36,362
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:42am Nov 16, 2017 5:42am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} itīs a profit
thanks my friend

taking a break now
  • #36,363
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:43am Nov 16, 2017 5:43am
Quoting vlady1974
long @ 13043, x7 contracts
Stopped -40

Edit: I thought this would make a move / decision past R1 either way but it's gone sideways - the worst market to be in (ie. whipsaw).
1H (resistance) contradicts 5M (support).

I'll sit it out until it makes a break. I favour counter-trend longs. Looking for a target in 132XX for my major shorts.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,364
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:51am Nov 16, 2017 5:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 112 16 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 183 KB
  • #36,365
  • Nov 16, 2017 6:21am Nov 16, 2017 6:21am
Quoting parisboy
{image}

Sorry, what are we seeing here? :-)
  • #36,366
  • Nov 16, 2017 6:34am Nov 16, 2017 6:34am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Sorry, what are we seeing here? :-)
It's showing price contained in 3 envelopes.
Each envelope represents Short Term, Medium Term, Long Term timeframes.

For this 1H chart, it shows that the slope of 2/3 curves are flat not sloped.

From what I understand, these envelopes are dynamic and not lagging.
Hence, what you're reading is a good representation of now.

What's interesting is that price itself is turning down, in line with short term (blue)
Shorts would be in order if the envelopes aligned.... eg. Short and Mid term both turned down, with price in lower half of envelope.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,367
  • Edited 9:18am Nov 16, 2017 6:49am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's showing price contained in 3 envelopes. Each envelope represents Short Term, Medium Term, Long Term timeframes. For this 1H chart, it shows that the slope of 2/3 curves are flat not sloped. From what I understand, these envelopes are dynamic and not lagging. Hence, what you're reading is a good representation of now. What's interesting is that price itself is turning down, in line with short term (blue) Shorts would be in order if the envelopes aligned.... eg. Short and Mid term both turned down, with price in lower half of envelope....
Excellent analysis Vlady1974

some additional comments :

Envelopes are only a part of the methodology and of the analysis, a second part concerns the Amplitude of the Envelopes

Here Envelopes parameters are 62,5 / 31,25 / 15,625 - each parameter being the Double or the Half of the other

this means that Price Action fluctuates :

+/- 62,5 points around the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Unit
+/- 31,25 points around the Centered Moving Average 128 Time Unit
+/- 15,625 points around the Centered Moving Average 32 Time Unit

you can notice that since 10.00 this morning Price Action is wholly included within the Envelope 128 TU whose Amplitude is 2 x 31,25 points = 62,5 points

this means that when Price Action bounces on the Lower Limit of the Envelope 128 TU you can expect a move UP to the Upper Limit 62,5 points higher at the maximum

this allows you to calculate some Risk Reward when you enter

If Trend Change Upwards and breaks the Upper Limit of the 128 TU Enveloppe there is a very high probability you reach at the utmost the next Envelope Upper limit (256) conversely if Trend change Downwards
  • #36,368
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:12am Nov 16, 2017 7:12am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Excellent analysis Vlady1974 some additional comments : Envelopes are only a part of the methodology and of the analysis, a second part concerns the Amplitude of the Envelopes Here Envelopes parameters are 62,5 / 31,25 / 15,625 - each parameter being the Double or the Half of the other this means that Price Action fluctuates : +/- 62,5 points around the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Unit +/- 31,25 points around the Centered Moving Average 128 Time Unit +/- 15,625 points around the Centered Moving Average 32 Time Unit you can notice that...
2 THINGS I'VE NOW UNDERSTOOD!

LOL...

 

  1. That amplitude explanation is fantastic! Thank you
  2. Your number format - you are in Europe yes!? LOL.... So 62.5 is what you meant. But you have Europe keyboard and format!! LOL. I was trying to work this out and was actually entering 62,5 in various indies but couldn't make it work!!! Hahaha. Thank you! Got it now!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,369
  • Edited 7:51am Nov 16, 2017 7:39am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} 2 THINGS I'VE NOW UNDERSTOOD! LOL... That amplitude explanation is fantastic! Thank you Your number format - you are in Europe yes!? LOL.... So 62.5 is what you meant. But you have Europe keyboard and format!! LOL. I was trying to work this out and was actually entering 62,5 in various indies but couldn't make it work!!! Hahaha. Thank you! Got it now!

If you say so !

the system is very "robust, but not bad" would have said Jim Hurst

You have to take into account that Price Action Amplitude has TWO components

- first component of Price Action is the Amplitude of the Envelope itself (to be simplistic)
- second component of Price Action is the Amplitude of the Underlying Trend

The Underlying Trend is defined by Jim Hurst as the sum of ALL cycles of degree, nature, order superior of the Cycle of interest

Here the Underlying Trend is FLAT / NEUTRAL - To be simple the Underlying add or substract nothing to the Amplitude of the Envelope 256 and the Envelope 128
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 112 16 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 183 KB
  • #36,370
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:46am Nov 16, 2017 7:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP500 UNDERLYING TREND.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #36,371
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:05am Nov 16, 2017 8:05am
long 13050 SL-7
  • #36,372
  • Edited Nov 17, 2017 7:41am Nov 16, 2017 8:06am | Edited Nov 17, 2017 7:41am
Today Roughly the Underlying Trend 128 TU of the DAX= 150 points

As the Amplitude of the Envelope 128 TU = 62,5 points (2 x 31,25) the Underlying Trend 128 TU has added about 2,5 times more to the Price Action than the Envelope 128 itself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX UNDERLYING TREND 16 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 195 KB
  • #36,373
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:14am Nov 16, 2017 8:14am
Quoting Wachturm
long 13050 SL-7
stopped out -7

enough of this for today, see you next week
  • #36,374
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:22am Nov 16, 2017 8:22am
Right now it will help to zoom in by HALVING the Envelopes parameters
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX ZOOM IN HALVING 16 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 153 KB
  • #36,375
  • Nov 16, 2017 11:15am Nov 16, 2017 11:15am
Quoting deltaone
1. Posi: long @13.047,5 (15:00 cet) 2. Posi: long @13.034,3 (16:00 cet) 3. Posi: long @13.048,0 (17:00 cet) 4. Posi: long @13.052,0 (18:00 cet) 5. Posi: long @13.055,5 (19:00 cet) position completed. dax moving in my favour atm, currently @13.075 (19:52)
special situation (policy bet -> "Deutschland")

i use prorealtime chart with prices only during xetra trading hours (09:00 - 17:30) and i donīt want to change that setting.
in order to illustrate the current move, hereīs igīs "normal" charting tool:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.png Size: 146 KB
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #36,376
  • Nov 17, 2017 12:09am Nov 17, 2017 12:09am
good morning,

lord draghila on the mic this morning.
and exploratory talks in berlin all day long.
iīm just managing open positions, no need to open new ones.

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #36,377
  • Nov 17, 2017 12:23am Nov 17, 2017 12:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 112 17 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #36,378
  • Nov 17, 2017 12:28am Nov 17, 2017 12:28am
Long @13072
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,379
  • Nov 17, 2017 12:49am Nov 17, 2017 12:49am
Quoting vlady1974
Long @13072
Added @ 13044
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,380
  • Nov 17, 2017 1:03am Nov 17, 2017 1:03am
So far the price action on the 1m and the look of the 4hr would suggest today is a shorts day.
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