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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #541
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:13am Sep 20, 2017 1:13am
Good morning / Buongiorno / Guten Morgen

Maybe we see some movement today, good luck to you guys!

Something to laugh about ...
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  • #542
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:18am Sep 20, 2017 1:18am
Quoting Wachturm
Something to laugh about ... {image}
Buongiorno a te.
Want to know why I'm laughing?
...'cause you are very, very close to the solution of the puzzle!
  • #543
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:29am Sep 20, 2017 1:29am
Morning all,

I think this 30m 200ema currently at 536 will be a tough nut to crack today, and I see the probability of a strong upward move this morning around or soon after the London open as quite high. If she does, then I do have R around today's high @ 564. Above that, and the fibs should cap it, which I have at 50% @570 just above R1; 61.8& @ 581; 76.4% @ 594, a few pips below R2.

However, should the 30m 200ema break, the downside will be open to S1 @ 518, or lower S2, which sits today on top of the H1 200sma @ 497.

That's it...short and sweet.

ps..amendment on that. I have no idea what London will do with it on the open, but I think it may have to challenge the 30m 200ema before it turns up again, if it turns up, but I do have an important MA which capped the price very well yesterday, but which is beneath it today, which is why I think we may go down first , then up, but as always, pure speculation on my part, and I'm prepared for anything.
  • #544
  • Sep 20, 2017 2:46am Sep 20, 2017 2:46am
Here's another parallel tramline which price broke on the way down from the recent high but which has provided rolling resistance on attempts to climb back up. It would be just too perfect if that line held price during the FOMC this evening and then headed back south.
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  • #545
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:26am Sep 20, 2017 3:26am
Anyone currently long, I think we can go higher, so probably worth hanging on as the pip haulage is pretty modest in this range. The higher fib levels are above, and the highest I have the price going today is actually higher than yesterday's high at around today's R3 620.

Correction - Monday's high of 615
  • #546
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:35am Sep 20, 2017 3:35am
Dax is comatosed atm. GJ, my favourite forex pair just jumped 100 pips on the UK data!
  • #547
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:08am Sep 20, 2017 4:08am
Looks like the 76.4% knocked that one on the head. With my anticipated morning move done and dusted, I have not a single clue what it's going to do now. With the FOMC later, could just slosh about. If you've got any washing to do, now might be a good time!
  • #548
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:38am Sep 20, 2017 4:38am
Quoting cat
Looks like the 76.4% knocked that one on the head. With my anticipated morning move done and dusted, I have not a single clue what it's going to do now. With the FOMC later, could just slosh about. If you've got any washing to do, now might be a good time!
great idea, my wife will love that

but it´s so much fun watchin G/J at the moment, it´s like watching a Thriller movie...
  • #549
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:48am Sep 20, 2017 4:48am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} great idea, my wife will love that but it´s so much fun watchin G/J at the moment, it´s like watching a Thriller movie...
Not such a great idea as it turns out! I guess that down move came from the fact that with the 76.4% fib reached on the way up, which is always a big fib to watch, sellers piled in, though sadly, I was not one of them. Pretty random move that one though, even for the Dax.
  • #550
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:05am Sep 20, 2017 5:05am
Quoting mag00
{quote} I think the 5th one ( the last one) ... ... starts lower@12495_12500 about P.S. this is the last of 3co (5's) ...maybe(breakeven)... {image}
Hello everybody ...

Ger30dec (m15)

in the 5th one


P.S.
pay attention to the a(c) wave
(pay or ... gain ... maybe)
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... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #551
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:23am Sep 20, 2017 7:23am
If anything can be read from the sudden drop from resistance at 595 it is that the price is very unhappy up there, which means, or could mean that a pretty sizeable drop is imminent. This doesn't necessarily mean today, and I'm not going to try and predict when it might be, but my charts and the pa do indicate a turnaround building.

Any thoughts on this most welcome.
  • #552
  • Edited 8:14am Sep 20, 2017 7:50am | Edited 8:14am
DAX looks overbought.
Needs to break the 500 for exceleration down to 400/350 zone, but there must be a reason to go down and so far there isn't any.

DAX tested the Dev Monthly Sept. POC @ 510/520 zone. Most traded zone this Month so far.

Price to high to go long (again) and to strong to go short. I wait for the 500 down cross and if it goes higher first, so it will be.

Fly like a patiant eagle and bite like a snake
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It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #553
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:55am Sep 20, 2017 7:55am
This is why the markets will never change fundamentally, and the patterns you see today will be there in a hundred years time or as long as there is financial
speculation.

I have often read on this forum how people have had to completely overhaul their method because what used to work no longer does. Personally, I have never experienced this...the market has as long as I've been trading, which admittedly isn't very long compared to some, has never radically changed it's behaviour from that which I built my strategy around.

Human nature never changes, and though some I am sure will bring up the algorithm argument, these still have to be programmed by humans.
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  • #554
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:00am Sep 20, 2017 8:00am
Quoting cat
If anything can be read from the sudden drop from resistance at 595 it is that the price is very unhappy up there, which means, or could mean that a pretty sizeable drop is imminent. This doesn't necessarily mean today, and I'm not going to try and predict when it might be, but my charts and the pa do indicate a turnaround building. Any thoughts on this most welcome.
From a technical point of view, I have no idea. H4 candle closed as a doji, D1 might close as a doji as well. Dax is waiting for the elections on Sunday I think. We could see a huge gap on Monday. My wild guess is ... skyrocket.
  • #555
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:26am Sep 20, 2017 8:26am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} From a technical point of view, I have no idea. H4 candle closed as a doji, D1 might close as a doji as well. Dax is waiting for the elections on Sunday I think. We could see a huge gap on Monday. My wild guess is ... skyrocket.
Yes , you could well be right. I have the price slap bang in the middle of what was the support around 12,000, and what I have as upside resistance at 13,000, which means it can go either way. Any fall is not going to be some kind of massive sell off, not according to the charts anyway, but a pullback to pick up support again, though I'll refrain from levels until the direction is clear. The last two day candle was a really nice shooting star, though I never pay much attention to candles in isolation.

I wonder whether the election is going have much of an effect at all though? Everyone is expecting a Merkel victory, so why should the Dax do very much at all if we get one? End of uncertainty, but that's about it.
  • #556
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:41am Sep 20, 2017 8:41am
Quoting cat
{quote} Yes , you could well be right. I have the price slap bang in the middle of what was the support around 12,000, and what I have as upside resistance at 13,000, which means it can go either way. Any fall is not going to be some kind of massive sell off, not according to the charts anyway, but a pullback to pick up support again, though I'll refrain from levels until the direction is clear. The last two day candle was a really nice shooting star, though I never pay much attention to candles in isolation. I wonder whether the election is going...
Because we could see a pro-business coalition with the liberal democrats.
  • #557
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:55am Sep 20, 2017 8:55am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} Because we could see a pro-business coalition with the liberal democrats.
So what result would send the Dax into a nose dive and what are the chances?
  • #558
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:18am Sep 20, 2017 9:18am
Quoting cat
{quote} So what result would send the Dax into a nose dive and what are the chances?
Strong social democrats maybe... ( unlikely imo )

I am a technical trader, so its just a guess...
  • #559
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:26am Sep 20, 2017 9:26am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} Strong social democrats maybe... ( unlikely imo ) I am a technical trader, so its just a guess...
I was asking out of interest, as I too never trade big news events in the blind chance they may go my way. Just getting a feel for what the Dax may do. Whatever happens, I hope it blasts out of this dreadful sideways froth we've had for 7 days already. It can be traded, but it makes life that much harder.
  • #560
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:28am Sep 20, 2017 9:28am
Wachturm, I believe you are right. A government result as Social Democrats (SPD) + Green (Grüne) + Left (Linke) would not be good news for the DAX, so I believe if these parties would win on Sunday, we could see some downside for the DAX (https://ig.ft.com/germany-poll-tracker/).
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