Disliked{quote} My currency strength table is part of the platform I use with the broker IG Index. It is built into their Pro Real Time software.Ignored
1
Scalping the EUR at the European open
Thursday 20th July and yet another day with no synchronicity. First glance as the currency strength list at 6 am showed EUR pairs scattered up and down the table. This first indicator is a message to go back to bed. But I shall begin to give our indicators a thumbs-up or down as they emerge each day. So, for our list of indicators for today:
(1) Are all EUR pairs clustered together at the top or bottom of the currency strength table? =
(2) Is there uniformity in the shape and direction of the major trend on a 30 m time frame? = EUR/USD trending down, EUR/JPY trending up, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD both touched a bottom and crossing the 50 ma to go long.
(3) Are all 7 am candles on the 15 m time frame pointing in the same direction? =
, but with the main trend on all pairs =
Trading these signals would have realized no more than 10 pips for EUR/USD and nothing but losses for all other pairs. Final score for today =
The lesson for today is 'Follow the rules, and if the criteria are negative stay out'.
(1) Are all EUR pairs clustered together at the top or bottom of the currency strength table? =
(2) Is there uniformity in the shape and direction of the major trend on a 30 m time frame? =
EUR/USD trending down, EUR/JPY trending up, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD both touched a bottom and crossing the 50 ma to go long.(3) Are all 7 am candles on the 15 m time frame pointing in the same direction? =
, but with the main trend on all pairs = Trading these signals would have realized no more than 10 pips for EUR/USD and nothing but losses for all other pairs. Final score for today =
The lesson for today is 'Follow the rules, and if the criteria are negative stay out'.
Tellboy
- #283
- Edited Jul 21, 2017 12:09am Jul 20, 2017 10:18pm | Edited Jul 21, 2017 12:09am
Friday 21st July. This was the situation at 6 am with a strong NZD a weak AUD and a weak JPY. Our first criterion for a possible scalp was nullified, probably by the huge rally on the EUR yesterday by something someone said at the EUR press conference when EUR moved up against the USD by 150 pips. It is therefore highly unlikely that EUR/USD will go anywhere today, but trundle along on a sideways channel. Here are the values for today's indicators as they emerge:
(1) EUR strength
(2) Synchronicity between pairs
(3) 7 am candle direction in sync. I substituted CAD instead of NZD because is was synchronized with USD and JPY. The up move began to be indicated on all pairs at 6:45.
Applying the rules of entry by placing a buy stop above the 7 am candles gave entry to all pairs with a reasonable scalp before 8 am with JPY and AUD reaching their 25 pip targets. See the lower chart.
(1) EUR strength
(2) Synchronicity between pairs
(3) 7 am candle direction in sync
. I substituted CAD instead of NZD because is was synchronized with USD and JPY. The up move began to be indicated on all pairs at 6:45.Applying the rules of entry by placing a buy stop above the 7 am candles gave entry to all pairs with a reasonable scalp before 8 am with JPY and AUD reaching their 25 pip targets. See the lower chart.
Tellboy
- #284
- Jul 20, 2017 10:28pm Jul 20, 2017 10:28pm
Friday 21st July. This was the situation at 6 am with a strong NZD a weak AUD and a weak JPY. Our first criterion for a possible scalp was nullified, probably by the huge rally on the EUR yesterday by something someone said at the EUR press conference when EUR moved up against the USD by 150 pips. It is therefore highly unlikely that EUR/USD will go anywhere today, but trundle along on a sideways channel. Here are the values for today's indicators as they emerge: (1) EUR strength
Here is the end of week 30 m chart for EUR/USD, showing how useful (or otherwise) is the 7 am candle as a direction indicator. When the pairs is in a tight channel it is not very good, as can be seen here on this chart, but it worked fine, contrary to expectation on Friday after the huge rally.
It is fair to say that this strategy works fine when market dynamics are in favour of the EUR, either bearish or bullish, but when EUR is meandering along in a tight channel it isn't much good at all. So, we need an alternative strategy to use when EUR is not in our favour. I am therefore creating a new trading system thread that uses the currency strength table as our first indicator to allow us to choose which currency to trade, using the same strategy, i.e. A basket of synchronised currency pairs and a 7 am candle. I shall call it Basket Trading the European Open.
It is fair to say that this strategy works fine when market dynamics are in favour of the EUR, either bearish or bullish, but when EUR is meandering along in a tight channel it isn't much good at all. So, we need an alternative strategy to use when EUR is not in our favour. I am therefore creating a new trading system thread that uses the currency strength table as our first indicator to allow us to choose which currency to trade, using the same strategy, i.e. A basket of synchronised currency pairs and a 7 am candle. I shall call it Basket Trading the European Open.
Tellboy
- #286
- Edited 2:33am Jul 24, 2017 12:32am | Edited 2:33am
Monday 24th July and this morning's currency strength table showed EUR scattered all over the place, with all NZD pairs clustered at the bottom, but the weakening EUR changed all that as it came to dominate the bottom of the table.
We can see that the 7 am candles were true to form and indicated a strong move to the downside for all pairs. This weakness in the EUR challenged the weakness in the NZD, and EUR forced its way into the bottom of the currency strength table.
When we look at our strategic rules, let's see how well they worked for us.
(1) EUR pairs clustered together at the top or bottom of the currency strength table? =
(2) Are all pairs showing synchronicity in the shape and direction of their trends? =
(3) Are all the 7 am candles pointing in the same direction? = and are they all pointing in the direction of the main trend on all pairs? =
All 7 am candles agreed on going against the main trend, so traders who followed the increasing momentum of the weakened EUR would have scored ok. So, the question is, do we ignore the first criterion and only follow the 7 am candle? Conflicting outcome today with one of the strategic rules failing, but a good result if we followed the 7 am candles.
We can see that the 7 am candles were true to form and indicated a strong move to the downside for all pairs. This weakness in the EUR challenged the weakness in the NZD, and EUR forced its way into the bottom of the currency strength table.
When we look at our strategic rules, let's see how well they worked for us.
(1) EUR pairs clustered together at the top or bottom of the currency strength table? =
(2) Are all pairs showing synchronicity in the shape and direction of their trends? =
(3) Are all the 7 am candles pointing in the same direction? =
and are they all pointing in the direction of the main trend on all pairs? = All 7 am candles agreed on going against the main trend, so traders who followed the increasing momentum of the weakened EUR would have scored ok. So, the question is, do we ignore the first criterion and only follow the 7 am candle? Conflicting outcome today with one of the strategic rules failing, but a good result if we followed the 7 am candles.
Tellboy
Tuesday 25th July and there was no agreement on which currency was strongest or weakest on the pairs strength list, and no synchronicity at all on EUR pairs.
Here's our check list:
1. All EUR pairs grouped together at the top of bottom of the pairs strength table =
2. All pairs trending in the same direction =
3. 7 am candle all pointing in the same direction =
All indicators suggest staying away from the market this morning. Anyone trying to make a trade from this chaos would have been burned.
Here's our check list:
1. All EUR pairs grouped together at the top of bottom of the pairs strength table =
2. All pairs trending in the same direction =
3. 7 am candle all pointing in the same direction =
All indicators suggest staying away from the market this morning. Anyone trying to make a trade from this chaos would have been burned.
Tellboy
- #291
- Edited Jul 26, 2017 12:05am Jul 25, 2017 10:06pm | Edited Jul 26, 2017 12:05am
Wednesday 26th July. This is the picture for the EUR pairs at 6 am (GMT+1).
(1) EUR pairs group together at top or bottom of strength table? =
(2) All pairs synchronised with the same shape and moving in the same direction? =
(3) 7 am candles all pointing in the same direction? = USD and CAD in sync, but JPY against the trend and AUD in the opposite direction. This creates a dilution of the momentum of the signaled down move. The outcome is shown in the lower charts where the spike on EUR/USD and EUR/CAD indicate nervousness and early profit taking. If a maximum potential is 100 pips and will show four of these symbols (). I'll give today's outcome just one
(1) EUR pairs group together at top or bottom of strength table? =
(2) All pairs synchronised with the same shape and moving in the same direction? =
(3) 7 am candles all pointing in the same direction? =
USD and CAD in sync, but JPY against the trend and AUD in the opposite direction. This creates a dilution of the momentum of the signaled down move. The outcome is shown in the lower charts where the spike on EUR/USD and EUR/CAD indicate nervousness and early profit taking. If a maximum potential is 100 pips and will show four of these symbols (). I'll give today's outcome just one Tellboy
- #292
- Edited Jul 27, 2017 12:22am Jul 26, 2017 10:15pm | Edited Jul 27, 2017 12:22am
Thursday 27th July. This was the scenario at 6 am after the huge bull spike created by the US statement last night. Such hikes in price are usually followed with a retracement. But will the USD continue to weaken today?
AUD and NZD are strong against all other currencies and could either continue their bullish move or if the EUR continues to gain strength they could reverse at their respective support lines.
(1) EUR pairs are weakest at the bottom of the table with the exception of EUR/USD
(2) Are all EUR pairs synchronised. No. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are trending up with EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD down trending. = indecision.
(3) Are all 7 am candles pointing in the same direction - let's wait and see??? The lower chart shows all four 7 am candles in indecision mode
Any attempt to trade against these indicators would be doomed to failure.. This is the importance of synchronicity with the major trend and all 7 am candles in agreement. See the lower chart for an illustration of market indecision.
AUD and NZD are strong against all other currencies and could either continue their bullish move or if the EUR continues to gain strength they could reverse at their respective support lines.
(1) EUR pairs are weakest at the bottom of the table with the exception of EUR/USD
(2) Are all EUR pairs synchronised. No. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are trending up with EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD down trending.
= indecision.(3) Are all 7 am candles pointing in the same direction - let's wait and see??? The lower chart shows all four 7 am candles in indecision mode
Any attempt to trade against these indicators would be doomed to failure.
. This is the importance of synchronicity with the major trend and all 7 am candles in agreement. See the lower chart for an illustration of market indecision. Tellboy
Friday 28th July saw conflicting 7 am candles with USD and CAD indicating a continuation of the rising trend but AUD and NZD suggesting a down move against the rising trend. All indicate a lack of synchronicity with the EUR this morning. Any stops triggered would not have produced any significant profit, but those who took the risk may have scored from the sudden 8 am spike on USD and NZD. Best to keep out on day like this. It was too risky with the conflicting 7 am candles.
Don't get too disheartened. When circumstances are right (and they haven't been for some time) then profits are good. We just have to be patient.
Don't get too disheartened. When circumstances are right (and they haven't been for some time) then profits are good. We just have to be patient.
Tellboy
Monday 31st July and the market just couldn't make up its mind today, so I'll not be posting a set of charts. In fact we have enough good examples of when to stay out of the market, so I'll only be posting those occurrences when the system criteria are met and we have a good example of a set of good scalps to show you. So, keep an eye out for ideal opportunities,
Happy scalping.
Happy scalping.
Tellboy
- #298
- Aug 2, 2017 2:28am Aug 2, 2017 2:28am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Membership Rewarded | 3,206 Posts
Wednesday 2nd August and a perfect pattern. Placing a buy stop order above the pullbacks wins on all pairs.
Good morning..
Agreed, wonderful similarity of the instruments..
But the 7 am candles are all red( EU, EJ and EN).. I skipped for this reason..
stay tuned
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
- #300
- Aug 2, 2017 5:06am Aug 2, 2017 5:06am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Membership Rewarded | 3,206 Posts
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.