There has been such a shift in the strength of usd that we are in a buy on dips for usd. Perhaps a retrace on the usd strength?
Ignored
IMO the current Bullish sentiment on USD Index is more or less a techinical correction fueled with some worst than expected economic data from the other majors. It looked like any news is good news for the USD for the last few weeks.
July and Aug are retrace months in the forex......even the impulse moves on the commodity pairs are retraces of the 1st half of the year...market movers have thier toes in the water at a 5 star resort.....when they get back after Labor day....the market will return to it's prior direction before the end of the year. except for the commodity currencies...they won't recover for a while......Before you jump on the US $ bandwagon...it at least has to do more than a 38% retrace of the euro move of 07-08...that # comes in at just under 4800 38% retrace for the index is 76.50 ish....that is the area we are going.....we will correct that stocastic then the run to 76.50 will create the divergence we will recognize as the 5th and final wave of this correction....
USD strengthening occurred when everyone in media and general public was expecting it to crash into hell. Now everybody is noticing the obvious dollar strengthening....so yes, correction is due.
Major trendlines were broken on the DXY, EUR/USD, oil, aussie, kiwi, etc; 7-month resistance on USD/JPY shattered today (and USD/CAD yesterday). The Fed also came out and essentially stated that all potential '08 rate hikes are now off the table, yet the dollar still rallied exceptionally. What does all this tell you?
...........create the divergence we will recognize as the 5th and final wave of this correction....
Ignored
A 5 wave correction you say????
If the current minor uptrend continues I see resistance at 75.50 area, beyond that and how many twist and turns I will leave to others.
Volatility has been dropping as mentioned due to summer vacation period. For 2006 and 2007 volatility each year bottomed around six months after it hits a peak. This year the peak was end of March (3/26/08) which might mean end of Sept increasing volatility will return.
"The Dollar rally has a bit more to go over the short term, but the greenback is prone to a sharp correction. The GBPUSD exhibits the clearest pattern. Look for a low near 1.9470, for a bullish opportunity against 1.9337."
[quote=SunTrader;2151454]A 5 wave correction you say????
[quote]
in an a,b,c correction...c is 5 waves......this was the 5 wave move I was refering to when I stated we are looking for 76.50. sometimes the printed word doesn't come across as clear as it reads in my head.......
I'll throw this in....we are in a 4th wave...expected retrace of a 4th wave is 38% of wave 3....another normal objective is for the 4th wave to enter into the price territory of the prior wave 4 of lesser degree...both criteria are met at 76.50 ish........
IMO the current Bullish sentiment on USD Index is more or less a techinical correction fueled with some worst than expected economic data from the other majors. It looked like any news is good news for the USD for the last few weeks.
Ignored
Certainly, with no more rate hike for the rest of the year, reality is gonna sink in to market soon, the question is when.
Certainly, with no more rate hike for the rest of the year, reality is gonna sink in to market soon, the question is when.
Ignored
A Suggestion of further rate increases to combat inflation and high jobless claims today and more bad Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack news along with Bad Lehman situation might just reverse things. Time will tell.
