Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Painful lessons are the best teachers..

They sure are!

I'm considering starting a journal here at FF. I'm really getting ready to turn my trading up to the pro level in 2023. This might sound strange to some, and it even sounds strange to me, but I felt a lot better about screwing up today after I wrote about it here and posted it. That's doesn't mean I feel good about having fell off my trading plan. But it does mean I feel much more ready prepared to move on from today and start fresh tomorrow.

Keeping a trading journal helps you organize your thoughts, emotions etc. found it be very beneficial.

So far a big nothing very boring day price just drifting down slowly but with no strength.

I have found the 18 ema's give me a better feel for trend vs trading range as compared to the 8 ema's. After this post, I'll post a chart without my trades showing and I'll explain how I have adapted rocky's method to my own liking.

Today, like yesterday, trend turned down soon after the US timing window, which starts at 8AM Eastern time per Stacey Burke's approach. But I again got to my desk late, and friends, let me tell you - when I get to the desk late, and a trade has already set up and triggered, I do not have greats days. Like yesterday, I moved stops too soon and too close, causing me to get stopped out only to re-enter again. As a result, like yesterday, I overtraded. Still a profitable day, but not nearly as profitable had it been if I had been at my desk by 7:30 AM which is my trading plan start time so that I am prepared for the US session.

But like yesterday, both my rocky template and my Stacey Birke template were pointing down, so I was only re-entering from the short side. So in the past when I had these breaks in discipline, I would very often end up with a losing day, perhaps a losing day where my losses would be twice what yesterday's or today's profits were. By far the great benefit I have gotten from implementing rocky's system is that it does keep me on the right side of the market. Long when the market is signaling long, short when the market is signaling short, and when price is wiggling back and forth across flat ema's I stay out.
B I'd give my read of the market and my rockypoint template and Stacey Burke Template an A+.

But again, like yesterday I'd give my execution of my trading plan a big red F-

My version of the rockypoint Renko-HeikenAshi Template:

First here is the indicator list of the indicators I have applied to my chart. Keep in mind this is the Ninjatrader8 Platform, and I do not use nor do I have a shareable template to use with MT4 or MT5.


The indicator that is opened is the 4 EMA. I use 18 ema of the high and the 18 ema of the low as the trend bands. I use the 4 EMA as a signal. When a candle closes with the 4 ema below the two longer ema bands, that is the indication to go short. If price is trending,, and I am not already short, I will wait for a doji or blue candle to close with the 4 ema higher than the previous candle(s). WHen a red candle closes with the 4 ema again printing lower, I use that as a re-entry short signal. Vice versa for a bull trening market.



The swing points are helpful in three ways:

1) they clearly show the trend, higher highs/higher lows or lower highs/lower lows
2) they clearly show trading range consolidation and breakout points
3) they make it easy to see double tops and double bottoms, and my experience is that if price prints either one, it is going to reverse.

So here is how to trade this version if one were to trade it perfectly (unlike me the last two days):

That was quite a rally. The US timing window has closed. The green shaded area is the 3.5 hours starting at 8AM Eastern and ending at 11:30 AM Eastern when the London markets close.

I did not trade the rally. Sweated all morning waiting for the downtrend to reach yesterday's low and then I was done. Perfect double bottom off the swing indi and then long entry on the rocky template would have had you in for an easy 50 pips. Close to 75 pips at the first exit signal (doji + red candle).


Back at it tomorrow.

I have not traded yesterday nor today. Yesterday the first set up for me occurred soon after 8:30 AM (GREEN ARROW) Eastern and I was not able to be at my desk, again,. The rest of the day stayed inside the lowest low and highest high of the US session (SHADED Rectangle), so no trend for a continuation entry and no test or break of that early support.


Today there was a short (RED Arrow) soon after the equity open that would have been a small loss most likely. That short was right into a 50% pullback of the first leg rally so I would probably have scratched it before it became to big of a loss. Definitely not a profitable trade had I taken it.

This was followed by a long around 9:51 Eastern (GREEN Arrow) that went +30, but probably would have been closed at about +15. The reason for not trading today was that when the 8 AM timing window opened, a long had already been triggered, and price was still inside yesterdaay's range. For this method, I have found that the best results at catching the first long off a low or the first short off a high, or wait until price has broken out of the previous day's range, even if the breakout had occurred during London and price is now back inside. Tightening ranges are tough for any MA based method I think. But the tight ranges yesterday and today should lead to more fluid moves in the next few days. But yesterday I just missed out, and today just gun shy because of the trading range.



Just in case anyone was thinking I had traded and just didn't want to show my losses, here are my trades from today. All MES and all just one contract because I am practicing a scalping method a friend of mine uses to trade SPY options.


And here is my PnL from todaya. All MES scalps, no GBPUSD futures

Just soso PA last couple of days price mostly just wandering around, makes me feel my edge is gone. So no trading.

Sitting out until this post-data volatility settles down.

I'm going to wait for the NY Equities open.

A little experimentation with some scalping this morning, again with relatively wishy washy PA. Changed ADX to 6 period from 8 and added Aroon Oscillator 8 period setting and changed RSI to 10 to smooth it a bit. Worked OK but don't love scalping. Done out of boredom today

2 more trades a win and a B/E

Went short again still open not looking great up 6 ticks but very jumpy PA.

Got 10 ticks.

Went long

Out for another 10 ticks

Done for the the day, time for the some fun.

this is where filtering it with ADX helps. you may have not even gotten that short with the red arrow. depends. only trade with a rising ADX even if its above 25

Did some scalping with the MES again today. Another small day of profits. Green every day I traded this week, but Monday and Tuesday were my best days. No trades Wednesday, and then scalping yesterday. Yesterday used a one minute system a friend showed me that he uses to trade SPY options. I used it on MES. Today I did MES scalping using my version of your method, rocky. I much prefer the rocky approach. $78.22 trading 1 MES is a little more than 15 1/2 points from scalping. That is a fine result, imo. Today was a good day to try scalping based on your template because the morning hours that I trade (between 8AM and 11:30AM Eastern time) were really choppy and while there were higher highs and higher lows during most of it, there were really no nice swings.

Hey hazelj80, you are right about the ADX. It sure is a great filter tool, and I was using up until recently it when I was still setting the EMA's to 9.

However, one reason I went to 18 EMA's is that the longer EMA is itself a form of filter. Also, i added the 4 EMA as my trigger. This really helps me a lot. I am able to enjoy a big chart with no subpanes taking away from the action of price itself.

Also, I do not mind a losing trade. My mindset is "Take ALL the Signals!"

I am not looking to add any indicators back to my template.

On a day like today, which is probably about as difficult a day as the market can throw at the system, I made +15.64 points profit AFTER commissions and fees with only a 50% win rate.

Most days the win rate is considerably higher.

9:30 AM to 11:30 AM today MES


9:30 AM to 11:30 AM yesterday. MES A much easier day for the system as an intraday trend trading method.


Today was really about as tough as the market gets with this system, and it performed very well. There is no system that will avoid all losing trades. What is important is that over a series of 10 or 20 or 100 trades the system has your account in a healthy net positive position.