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Money management: Capital needed per 0.07 USD per microlot 0 replies

The Volume Detective 411 replies

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Attachments: (binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective
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  • Post #4,481
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:59am Jul 7, 2019 4:54am | Edited at 10:59am
  •  parisboy
  • Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Member | 7,763 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
{quote} {quote} @skyway -- @dkrock rarely gets into details, but I bet he and @parisboy would see things eye-to-eye. A while back @dkrock likened PA to a winding river with a boat floating from bank to bank. And this is exactly what we are doing here -- I think. We float from side-to-side, but always tend back to the middle of the river -- before heading to the other bank.
Ignored
@Robots4me - never heard from this guy before . I will look at what he wrote.

everything related to my favorite pet subjects is welcomed !

Guys use often old theories reshaped with their own words. For example you substitute Bank to Band.

Why not ? Anyway I prefer to give the genealogy.

@dkrock likened PA to a winding river with a boat floating from bank to bank.


My trading design was inspired by thinking about traveling down a river. You can travel in the middle, or go to either shore anytime you want. Meanwhile the river continues to flow in one direction. The river bends as it flows. So, the river has a constant movement that bends and you can also bend yourself within the path of the river. If the river is your primary route, and you can see the bends in it, then whether you go from shore to shore, or stick in the middle, you can also navigate the bends. Even if you completely turn around, the process is the same, but you are fighting the current. A trading graph works much the same way in that it constantly moves to the right. It has a primary direction, up or down, as well as swings within it (the bends). Meanwhile, world-wide traders make buying and selling decisions (travel to the shore). If only a few go to the shore, it is generally a wrong decision, or head fake. If the size of the group leaving the middle and going to the shore increases substantially, then you get consolidation because the group has stopped traveling. When the group is in the middle and navigates the bends, you get a swing. The task is to keep track of how many traders are in the middle, and how many are going to either shore. If you trade support/resistance, or price action, then you are only looking at one shore. If you are in the middle though, you can see both shores, as well as the upcoming bends. I created the middle and the shores and simply monitor traders as they navigate the river with me.


It reminds me of the "River Theory" of Glenn Nealy who ended by saying that his interpretation of Elliott Waves was not very effective in the present market conditions.

By the way entry price to his new wisdom was something like 5.000 $

Hereunder a bonus : the basics of River Theory for free for all Lazy traders reading your thread !
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  • Post #4,482
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  • Jul 7, 2019 5:02am Jul 7, 2019 5:02am
  •  RickM
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 1,843 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
A couple of days ago I posted screen shots of a few examples of the types of statistics I was seeing. Just to give you a flavor, the screen shot below is for GBPNZD-D1 using the data horizon 2018-02-01 through 2019-07-05. If you plan on helping with the testing, then I would request we all use the same data horizon. {image} The statistics that interest me most are: 1. Profit Factor 2. Win Ratio 3. Average Profit per trade, Average Loss per trade In this example the Profit Factor is 3.71 -- amazingly, amazingly good. This will not hold up in a live,...
Ignored
Hi Steve

I have been following the progress of your EA and the incredible work your'e putting in here into getting it to testing. I was looking at your early stats and the figure that got me interested was the small draw down in the relationship to the profit factor. Anything over a profit factor 3 has a great chance to be a profitable EA.
I have a few ideas that may really rocket the profits on this EA but for the time, I will sit on the sideline.

Looking forward to seeing your baby running on Demo
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
 
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  • Post #4,483
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:05am Jul 7, 2019 5:05am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
R4M-BD-ADR Indicator
R4M-BD-ADR-DashboardEA

Also -- I've updated the BD indicator and corresponding dashboard EA. The updated software is included in the latest *.zip file on the other thread.


R4M-BD-ADR-DashboardEA changes:

1. For those having trouble with the dashboard EA working with the corresponding BD indicator, this should no longer be a problem as long as you have the latest versions of these installed in the correct locations.

2. Allow larger lot size for the "high rollers" among us.

3. Use either Market Watch or manually enter symbols.


R4M-BD-ADR Indicator

1. I've modified how alerts work -- I had received reports of multiple alerts when there should only have been one. Also, still to be completed (probably by tomorrow) -- being able to separately toggle Popup and Push alerts.

2. Locked to D1 (similar to the dashboard EA)
 
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  • Post #4,484
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:09am Jul 7, 2019 5:09am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting RickM
Disliked
{quote} Hi Steve I have been following the progress of your EA and the incredible work your'e putting in here into getting it to testing. I was looking at your early stats and the figure that got me interested was the small draw down in the relationship to the profit factor. Anything over a profit factor 3 has a great chance to be a profitable EA. I have a few ideas that may really rocket the profits on this EA but for the time, I will sit on the sideline. Looking forward to seeing your baby running on Demo
Ignored
Hey @RickM -- yep, I've rarely seen greater than '2' for Profit Factor. However, keep in mind I cherry-picked GBPNZD-D1 because it seemed to perform better than other pairs.

For other pairs, without calibrating the StopLossFractionADR then the PF seemed to be in the neighborhood of 1.5'ish. And with calibration I could often get them over 2.

I look forward to hearing your ideas. Don't you still owe me a Skype session?
 
 
  • Post #4,485
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:12am Jul 7, 2019 5:12am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting parisboy
Disliked
{quote} @Robots4me - never heard from this guy before . I will look at what he wrote. everything related to my favoritepet subjects is welcomed ! Guys use old theories reshaped with their own words. For example you substitute Bank to Band. Why not ? Anyway I prefer to give the genealogy. @dkrock likened PA to a winding river with a boat floating from bank to bank. It reminds me of the "River Theory" of Glenn Nealy who ended by saying that his interpretation of Elliott Waves was not very effective in the present market conditions. By the...
Ignored
@parisboy -- it is always a pleasure. You know how to brighten my thread both figuratively and literally.
 
1
  • Post #4,486
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:17am Jul 7, 2019 5:17am
  •  alblive
  • | Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Member | 85 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
R4M-BD-ADR Indicator R4M-BD-ADR-DashboardEA Also -- I've updated the BD indicator and corresponding dashboard EA. The updated software is included in the latest *.zip file on the other thread. R4M-BD-ADR-DashboardEA changes: 1. For those having trouble with the dashboard EA working with the corresponding BD indicator, this should no longer be a problem as long as you have the latest versions of these installed in the correct locations. 2. Allow larger lot size for the "high rollers" among us. 3. Use either Market Watch or manually enter symbols....
Ignored

I deleted my post about the EA, it works now My other post about the opposite band as exit is still in question.
 
1
  • Post #4,487
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:25am Jul 7, 2019 5:25am
  •  jdva
  • Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Member | 1,281 Posts
Quoting jdva
Disliked
{quote} That is a very good message to read on Sunday morning here after the breakfast and before going to the golf course, my friend (guessing we are in a similar age)... By the way, may I pay you a compliment...you are the best OP I have seen here on FF in many years, almost always present around the clock with full nick, very objective and last but not least very conciliatory...and not forgetting an awesome coder! Please stay tuned, jdva
Ignored
Edit: Of course also much credit to @bishopdotun for his bright idea with the ADR...!
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
 
1
  • Post #4,488
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:45am Jul 7, 2019 5:45am
  •  LongBTC
  • | Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Member | 174 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
Everyone should read this post by @dkrock. He has a tendency to delete them, so I wouldn't delay: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12369150#post12369150
Ignored
Wow amazing post! Thanks!
 
1
  • Post #4,489
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:55am Jul 7, 2019 5:55am
  •  euroswiss
  • Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 79 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
{quote} Hey @RickM -- yep, I've rarely seen greater than '2' for Profit Factor. However, keep in mind I cherry-picked GBPNZD-D1 because it seemed to perform better than other pairs. For other pairs, without calibrating the StopLossFractionADR then the PF seemed to be in the neighborhood of 1.5'ish. And with calibration I could often get them over 2. I look forward to hearing your ideas. Don't you still owe me a Skype session?
Ignored

Hi !

Take a look at this indicator. I hope that will help this thread. No magic just study.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12273168#post12273168
 
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  • Post #4,490
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 5:57am Jul 7, 2019 5:57am
  •  Ronniefx
  • | Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Member | 46 Posts
Quoting parisboy
Disliked
{quote} I never said or wrote that Timing is not important to me. Some Lazy Traders on this thread seem not to have read my Power Point presentation on the subject of Time and even least my thread and labelled Fractal structure of TIME and Price. Key is the Division by 8 of : - the Price Range - the Time Frame because one of Gann's key concept is "when Price and Time "Squares" (are balanced), you are close to a Directional Change" Correct Scaling is the Key for Price as For Time {file}
Ignored
I know this dosent touch the subject of the threas but
Paris boy
Tks for the powerpoints that you provided
It open a new level of opportunities of trading efficiently.
 
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  • Post #4,491
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 6:09am Jul 7, 2019 6:09am
  •  mchl13
  • | Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Member | 117 Posts
@R4M

you could add the indication spread-vs-adr,
to determine a ratio% from which, a pair can be traded or not,

just an idea
 
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  • Post #4,492
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:28am Jul 7, 2019 6:15am | Edited at 6:28am
  •  parisboy
  • Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Member | 7,763 Posts
Quoting Ronniefx
Disliked
{quote} I know this dosent touch the subject of the threas but Paris boy Tks for the powerpoints that you provided It open a new level of opportunities of trading efficiently.
Ignored
@Ronniefx thanks for your kind words.

Old recipes are the best.

There are great minds and great coders on this thread.

Use simple basics tested things :

Divise by 8 the Price Range whatever the Time Unit you use for Trading and you will determine the potential Amplitude of Price Action Swing (your Band whatever Band you use)

.Use Time Units being a multiple of 8 and Price will be "Squaring" Time, meaning being balanced with Time. Hence you will use the correct scaling.

Use the Time parameters 8, 16, 32, 64 , 128, 256 etc with your pet Indicator .

Just test both options separately , then together and report the results
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  • Post #4,493
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 8:52am Jul 7, 2019 8:52am
  •  parisboy
  • Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Member | 7,763 Posts
To read and meditate
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  • Post #4,494
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 9:19am Jul 7, 2019 9:19am
  •  skyway
  • Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Member | 1,209 Posts
Quoting parisboy
Disliked
To read and meditate {image} {image}
Ignored
The parameters used must be synchronised else the tool is useless.
 
2
  • Post #4,495
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:01am Jul 7, 2019 10:43am | Edited at 11:01am
  •  jdva
  • Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Member | 1,281 Posts
Quoting robots4me
Disliked
A couple of days ago I posted screen shots of a few examples of the types of statistics I was seeing. Just to give you a flavor, the screen shot below is for GBPNZD-D1 using the data horizon 2018-02-01 through 2019-07-05. If you plan on helping with the testing, then I would request we all use the same data horizon. {image} The statistics that interest me most are: 1. Profit Factor 2. Win Ratio 3. Average Profit per trade, Average Loss per trade In this example the Profit Factor is 3.71 -- amazingly, amazingly good. This will not hold up in a live,...
Ignored
Thanks for the report, yes you are right...seems too good to be true in real trading.

BTW, a spread of 2 points on GN ist not realistic...it should be rather 20 or much higher at the daily rollover times when the signals come in, I guess. I have tested and traded many EAs but never seen a max. DD below 1%...especially not in comparison to such good returns.

Nevertheless I'll remain optimistic that/what results bishopdotun will show us next week and later on his live trading.
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
 
2
  • Post #4,496
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 11:03am Jul 7, 2019 11:03am
  •  bishopdotun
  • Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 840 Posts
Quoting jdva
Disliked
{quote} Thanks for the report, yes you are right...seems too good to be true in real trading. BTW, a spread of 2 points on GN ist not realistic...it should be rather 20 or much higher on the daily rollover times when the signals come in. I have tested and traded many EAs but never seen a max. DD below 1%...especially not in comparison to such a good return. Nevertheless I'll remain optimistic that/what results bishopdotun will show us next week and later on his live trading.
Ignored
To avoid spread escalation around rollover times, you can:

- place pending orders above & below current price

or

- wait till 30-60mins after rollover

The most important fact is that you know which direction to trade regardless.

Take the test results with a pinch of salt. What I focus on is the ability to pick the direction to trade and exploit that as much as I can.
 
1
  • Post #4,497
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 11:13am Jul 7, 2019 11:13am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting euroswiss
Disliked
{quote} Hi ! Take a look at this indicator. I hope that will help this thread. No magic just study. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12273168#post12273168
Ignored

@euroswiss -- I agree -- this looks interesting and definitely worth pursuing -- thank you.
 
 
  • Post #4,498
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 11:18am Jul 7, 2019 11:18am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting mchl13
Disliked
@R4M you could add the indication spread-vs-adr, to determine a ratio% from which, a pair can be traded or not, just an idea
Ignored
@mchl13 -- could you explain further. It is not clear to me how the spread / adr ratio relates to a potential Entry signal.
 
 
  • Post #4,499
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 11:33am Jul 7, 2019 11:33am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting jdva
Disliked
{quote} Thanks for the report, yes you are right...seems too good to be true in real trading. BTW, a spread of 2 points on GN ist not realistic...it should be rather 20 or much higher at the daily rollover times when the signals come in, I guess. I have tested and traded many EAs but never seen a max. DD below 1%...especially not in comparison to such good returns. Nevertheless I'll remain optimistic that/what results bishopdotun will show us next week and later on his live trading.
Ignored
@jdva -- yes -- I was experimenting with a number of different settings and pairs and forgot to pay attention to the spread. Since we are trading D1 (and not scalping M1) then I figured the spread is less important. BTW -- that setting is in pips (not points). Also, in live trading the spread changes throughout the day, but Strategy Tester doesn't take that into account. That's why I point out the results are unreliable. "Unreliable" doesn't necessarily mean "wrong" -- just that you don't bet the family farm based on the results from Strategy Tester.

This is another reason why I'm cautiously releasing the EA with a number of disclaimers. I am one set of eyes. I'm hoping with a few additional sets then details like these will be caught and collectively we can agree what works and what doesn't.
 
 
  • Post #4,500
  • Quote
  • Jul 7, 2019 11:38am Jul 7, 2019 11:38am
  •  robots4me
  • Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Member | 4,378 Posts
Quoting bishopdotun
Disliked
{quote} To avoid spread escalation around rollover times, you can: - place pending orders above & below current price or - wait till 30-60mins after rollover The most important fact is that you know which direction to trade regardless. Take the test results with a pinch of salt. What I focus on is the ability to pick the direction to trade and exploit that as much as I can.
Ignored
@bishopdotun -- our Entries are executed on the first tick of a D1 bar -- i.e. our broker's 00:00 time. Are we really concerned about spread escalation?
 
 
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