Coulda, shoulda, woulda..... a losing game.

You know Phil, You are right and I am wrong. I will put it back
Scott

Thanks Scott, I've always had you pegged as a reasonable and fair guy. I hope I didn't insult your sense of fairness. I do see how this could trun into a Forex sucks thread and that would not be helpful.

In the trading world there is a term called "survivorship bias". It's a bias towards results because those who fail are no longer counted as traders. It has the effect of skewing data in favor of unrealistic positive results generated by those who last long enough to be counted. I think the same happens here sometimes. People blow up every day and simply move on. Even some of those remain giving the illusion that Forex is easier than it is.

Had the same impression as you Scott, but I think phil is correct.

Class act Phil.

Nothing worth doing is free or easy. If you don't enjoy the activities associated with trading and only want to get rich quick, I just want to thank you in advance for your contribution to the market. Somebody's got to foot the bill and thank you for your support.
All you consistent winning traders should show me some love too for my generous donations.
The only way to get rich easy is to inherit it or marry it. I'm sure that path has pitfalls as well.
Happy Trading

Ffwuc:
Very interesting that you are only focusing on what u have lost and not on what has been gained. Count yourself lucky. It only cost u a tuition of +2k to learn u have no discipline. Many people will go thru life never knowing why they are miserable and why their life is always in the porcelain fixture. Now u know. What u do with this knowledge going forward in life or trading is totally up to you; if you decide to stop trading or not makes no nevermind to the markets.

Trading Forex has taught and is teaching me more about myself than any endevor I have ever taken on and for that I'll always be gratefull I found it.

but i have to answer again ,

I will help the poor man here to recover his lost !
all the result of trades will be post here everyday !

System hopping. A different system every week. The rule seems to be "If you get three losing trades in a row, then your system is no good. Time to go find another one." This is so sad because so many traders fail to recognize two things.

First, and I've said this many times on this forum, is that individual trades are meaningless. Only a long series of trades has meaning. It makes no difference whether an individual trade is a winner or a loser. When I place a trade, I don't care whether it is a winner or a loser. I don't care because every trade is a winner for me. If I win a trade, I make money. If I lose a trade, I learn from it. Either way I win, because I gain either money or experience.

Second, traders fail to stay with one system long enough to allow its unique statistical edge to manifest itself, nor do they stay with one system long enough to know it inside out, forwards and backwards.

A system is not the Holy Grail.
A trader is not the Holy Grail.
Money management is not the Holy Grail.
A system and a trader and money management together are required to create a Holy Grail.

There is not one Holy Grail. There are an infinite number of them. As many as there are combinations of system-moneymanagement-trader.

There are many good systems available for free. Pick one.
There are many good money management methods for free. Pick one.
There are many bad traders. Fix one, preferably yourself.

IMHO, the reason most traders fail is because they do not correctly identify where the real problem is and take steps to fix the real problem. From the paragraph above it should be clear that the problem is not with the system, but that's what everyone focuses on. When one system doesn't work, they try another, and then another, and another. Well of course changing systems isn't going to fix the problem!

"My car doesn't run. It must be the tires. Lets try some goodyear tires. Nope, still doesn't run. Lets try some firestone tires. Nope, still doesn' run." A dozen tire brands later, the car owner has lost all his money switching tires and gives up on ever being able to drive. It never occured to the owner to charge the battery.

Tires are systems. The charge on the battery is the traders mindset, emotions, persistence and consistence.

You want step by step instruction on how to build your own personal Holy Grail? Okay, here goes:

Combine the following:

ONE system.
ONE currency.
ONE micro lot per trade (live, NOT demo)
ONE trader (that would be you)

Begin trading. After 20 trades, if you haven't made a profit. Then look at what is wrong with the trader and fix it. Leave the system, currency and micro lot per trade alone. THEY ARE NOT BROKEN, SO DON'T FIX THEM.

After making adjustments to the trader, complete another 20 trades. Repeat this cycle until the trader is fixed. Once the trader is running properly, then and ONLY THEN may you try a different system or currency or position size.

It is not the system. It is you. Quit focusing on the system and do exactly what you've done here. Honest, painful self evaluation. And yes, go ahead an have a pity party and make statements that you know perfectly well are false about trading. Do all this. Get it out of your system. Vent.

Just to give a bit of hope, I once took a $4,000 account down to $13 in less than two weeks. 200:1 true leverage will do that to you. Despair, depression, defeat and a profound sense of total worthlessnesss? I was the poster child!

Then I went ONE-ONE-ONE as above and with great care and fifty tons of discipline, I grew that $13 back up to $500. By that time, I had regained my confidence. I had "fixed" myself by eliminating my problem of using high leverage.

If I can fix myself, anyone can. I still find broken parts of my trader self, and and I identify them, I fix them. I don't muck with my system and I don't muck with my money management. I fix the problem where it lies. Inside me, the trader.

Dial

My friend started trading live 3 weeks ago with micro lots,
he makes approx 20 pips per day, i've been teaching him basics, and he strictly follows Bagovino method, with basic other knowledge I taught him.

If you wanna try this out, goto main forum section and look for bagovino method.

Hope that helps.

Great post Dial, this quote in particular caught my eye. Some systems, great systems in fact, have only a few percent, or even lower, of an edge. Las Vegas make billions of dollars on a few percent edge. If a trader takes a system for a ride, say 20 trades, and gives up, they havn't given the system enough time to realize its small, but very powerful, statistical edge. Remember guys and gals each and every system will win money and will, at the same time, lose money. The key is to make more than you lose; thats all there is to it. Simple huh?

i agree with dial

EVERY system out there will be profitable if given enough time, PROVIDED that you are a patient and smart trader.

I started live in August and I have experienced 10 loses in a row and still able to bring my account from 500 to 524 in 1 month and a half. And I designed this average system

Stop blaming the market cause nobody is controlling it. It's about using common sense and implementing sound money management.

One suggestion from me is taht you trade off the weekly or daily charts. People who trade in shorter time frames (intra day traders) are often more stressed. So take it easy....

Inspiring posts such as these are why I keep coming back to this forum and only post here! As a novice and newbie myself, I enjoy reading about the veterans' experiences.

I do believe in the potential of Forex but it is very treacherous. The most important thing is not to let an unsuccessful experience in this business in anyway define your self-worth, especially if you believe that most traders lose in the market. One thing that has helped me is maintaining modest yet meaningful targets. I never had that kind of success you had with the demo account, but I don't remember having a losing week either in both my demo and live trading. I'm sure there's also plenty of coulda, shoulda, woulda for my trading as well but I'm happy with these modest gains thus far.

As for demoing vs. live trading, I find it very similar to the performing arts: unless you're a natural prodigy, you can be brilliant practicing in your studio but the live deal if often a very different story. The way to producing a brilliant live performance does not merely rely on more practicing, but experiencing subpar and even embarrassing live moments. That's why I believe that the way to get better at your trading is find more opportunities to trade live (and not on micro and high leverage accounts). I really think that there's a certain psychology critical to long-term successful trading that can only be developed with that kind of "live" experience.

So much good advice here, to bad ffwuc is gone already...

Just kidding.

I really admire this guy. Judging by some of his words I'm sure this is not the end. We will hear about ffwuc again, in more fortunate circumstances.

ffwuc, if you had patience to read all this, you certainly can make it in forex.

Here is my story:

2 months ago I went on vacation, traveled a bit, and when I came back, I didn't at all have the urge to dive back into trading, head first. Instead, I took some more time off of forex and boy, it feels good. I think I have a slightly diferrent point of view now, and before I start demoing again, which should be sometime next week, I hope my head will be clear enough not to do anything stupid.

Actually it feels as if I learned more by NOT TRADING. Well, we'll see how it goes.

Anyway, ffwuc, perhaps that's just what you need, a BREAK. Relax, stop thinking about money, try not to trade for a while.

That's my piece of advice. Take it if you are still there. And I'm sure you are.

Dane

Diallist,

That is one hellva a good post. You have what it takes to be a good trader, but what you have and what you explained is really impossible for the vast majority of people to aquire. I think good traders are born, not made.

Funny little irony between your post and your signature. In one breath you say that successful traders are born and then in the next you say it takes nothing but perseverance.

Which is it? Or is perseverance a magical superpower as opposed to a choice? Does kyrptonite take your perseverance abilitiy away?

People fail (and this is true about most things in life not just forex) because they are either ignorant, stupid or they just don't give a damn. All three of those things can be solved by choice.

I tried to put your post in my signature, but dude that was huge
thanks dialist, that brought some fresh air to my brain

Once again, thanks for the diversity of feedback, crticism and encouragement. Alot of what you have presented I am already aware of. Like I said originally, I know all the mistakes I am making and why, but refuse to admit that there is a problem. But that will change.

Originally I had only planned one post then to blow this game, but now I have witnessed the personal benefits of utilising this trade journal to examine practically, (not what you read in books, but real raw experience) the psychology of trading.
Good call for not trashing it Scott and thanks philmcgrew for the insight and backup.
No it will not turn into a forex bashing post. I can see it developing into a practical and positive journey of recovery.

It has attracted some interesting comments also. I have definitely hit a nerve here. It is encouraging to know that most traders have gone through this experience. You read about it, but it is difficult to believe unless you have real people talking about real experiences.

<o></o>It is incredible that with less than 24hrs AWAY from the market both, physically and mentally, and focusing on something other than trading, like keeping a trade journal (which isn’t trading), I am noticing significant improvements.

I have suddenly relaxed. The market will be there tomorrow and the next day and the next. Is the pound still going up? Will it end the week on a high, low or flat – (as the 5SMA on a weekly chart has an uncanny ability to predict at the beginning of each week – have you noticed it points to where the week will go – last week it was pointing down on Monday, the week before it was pointing up on Monday and this week it was flat or turning on Monday - either way it was a rocky week) Anyway at this stage --- who cares. I am relaxed, I am healing, and I am preparing myself mentally for the challenge ahead.

I haven't dissappeared great*dane. I am probably in a different time zone to you. All the recent posts occurred when I was asleep.

Well now instead of lying awake at night worrying about how that trade is going or what the market is doing, I am thinking about what to write in this trade journal. Or more precisely, how to utilise the untapped psychological potential of this tool to learn to trade properly.

<o></o>Step 1. Discipline. After much introspection and heckling, this I believe is the key. To trade live again with a mini account ($50 lots) with 1% risk (maybe this is too hard core, but if we up it to 2% - still reasonable risk - then all below figures can be halved.), I need $5000 balance.
Now I said that the market is not getting any of my other money that I haven’t risked, so where do I get it from.
I save it up.
But that will take a while on my current income with my current savings plan.

Yes it will. And that is how discipline will be nurtured.

I already save $40/week from my job. I could save more but I have debts like mortgage, credit card etc.. So at this stage the most I can save is $40/week. The balance of the account I am saving it to is growing ok (remember the market doesn’t see this money), so I think I can manage to skim $10/week off that savings into a separate account. $5000@$10/week = 500 weeks. That’s… 8 years before I can start to trade live again with my current plan. Like I said, the market will still be there tomorrow and the next day and the next. That’s 8 years to develop sound trading discipline.

BTW Thanks for the advice about trading micro lots, I will assess in a couple of weeks whether this is better way to go or not.. ie to get back trading quicker.

<o></o>Step 2: See you in 8 years….. No seriously a lot can happen in 6mths, 1mth whatever….More capital or a different approach may be available in the future to speed up the process.<o></o>
The Real Step 2: Money Management. Either money manages you (your day job) or you manage your money (gun trader). It’s my choice… See Step 1.

<o>Step3: More reading. Although I have read a frightening amount of material on trading from Schwager, Chande et al, </o>Farley, numerous web sites etc etc the list goes on, as do the different methods of trading outlined, there is always more to learn. I am keen to read more on DeMark at the moment, and now I have time to do this. The flip side to all this is that I may have tried to absorb too much information way too fast and this is causing confusion. I can get a little obsessive when it comes to learning. jaime12 makes a reasonable argument against knowing too much. Am I dumb enough to trade. Am I stolid enough to have discipline.

Step 4: The trading plan. Here is where many of the problems start. Too many systems.. Too many indicators.. Too much BS. Too small attention span. One system needs to be selected. I am not terribly interested at this stage in developing my own system, and there are plenty of profitable ones out there so it is just a matter of picking one and STICKING TO IT.

So far I have tried many of the systems on this forum and then some, they are all so tasty.. but which one. Before I crashed I was looking at tlatomi and mouteki and vegas and a combination of all three and tlatomi stated that he was looking to integrate mouteki into his system to calculate profit targets and he already integrates vegas. From what I have seen, any system that uses Fib levels, support and resistance, and trend lines is a goer. The market behaves more predictably at these levels – it will definitely go one way or the other and reasonably quickly.
Great…. Now my head is starting to spin again and I am getting confused and lost.
OK so much choice, so little time, WAY too much information.
Enough…. This is step 4 of a plan of action.
Step 1 has not even begun yet so don’t worry too much about the details of a plan until you are approaching Step 4.

This is where the thinking of “someone please trade my account for me because I am a ditsy blonde who can’t think for herself” creeps in.
Sure if someone wants to help me trade my account back to break even around US$3000 that would be a great help, and would save me 3 yrs. But will it just be letting me off the hook? and leaving me vulnerable to crash and burn. The easy path is never easy.

<o></o>Also, just to mind, I was working on a 5/50 EMA crossover with a couple of filters, bollinger and fib ratios on a 1hr chart that had great potential. Its my system (although someone else may already have a similar system, I didn't get it from them), its personal - I know it back to front because I thought it up. It jumped out at me from a mess of MA's on a chart one day. I was demoing it for a week and it did well but I was too immature and impatient to follow through with it.
I am not good at programming an autotrade system, so I would have to watch it 24/7 which I can't do, so good trades turned bad overnight. This was all before I read some of the great articles and systems on this forum and have a deeper understanding of fib/supp/res levels and trend lines.


Step 4. Rolling in cash. Place cheesy emoticon here. I don't like those things btw. I believe the written word, utilised properly, can provide the necessary subtleties of emotion. The human brain, properly trained can interpret these subtleties, without being overemphasised and smashed over the head with a flashing icon.

Now I have a theoretical/philosphical basis from which to begin the PRACTICE of trading. This still does not mean I will be successful or will even trade. But it provides a framework to support the endeavour. A clear track to follow for the moment. Thank you diallist.

Yes the moderator must have deleted your post adam3000.
Intitially I said that out of desperation and part joke.
I am certainly open to any suggestions,
but maybe that is the issue with discipline, too free and easy in thinking.
But I explore this in my previous post.

The moderator obviously thought there was some ethical dilemna or that we were soliciting - which technically we are. Or that I was vulnerable.
Can we have feedback from the moderator on this issue please before we continue further.

I would like a vote on this issue from forum users. So I can have some opinions to work with.
I don't mind putting up my account for an experiment. It is empty so no real harm can come to me than is already done.
After all you are all telling me this is a game, we are here to have fun and make a buck doing it.
I am accutely aware of Rincewind's opinion. Good call btw. Tough but fair.
The forex market is the free-est market after all... anything goes.

Sorry jamie12 but I could not disagree more. If traders are naturally born, that would mean they dont need google, books, Forexfactory, or anything for that matter.
Its simply not true, people need education in ANY line of work - but more so in the markets.
A lot of traders will tell you the same thing. For example, james16, a successful trader on this forum. He scoffs when people say things like you do. If he did not receive help from fellow traders (and other sources), he would not be where he is today, he openly admits that.
Dont quit ffwuc, take advice from the others and trade on a micro account using 1% of your balance per trade.
I wish you all the best.

Nothing So Lofty. Self promotion is not allowed,Scott