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Market mysteries: Riddles to reality

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  • First Post: Edited Apr 18, 2008 7:51pm Apr 8, 2008 4:22am | Edited Apr 18, 2008 7:51pm
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Polishing my crystal ball
Thanks. Interesting!
I hate to say this, but it's no wonder that 95% of people that invest money into this business, leave it poorer. What are they doing wrong. Logic tells me they are all doing the same thing (insert here whatever you are doing).
Everybody looks at a historical chart (the effect)and tries to Guess the future.
What I have done is go inside the data to look for the cause.(and then guess)

Yesterdays move on cable was just a natural consequence of what caused it. It was 100% predictable, almost inevitable.

When a 4 HR and 1Hr cycle (like elliot waves) end at the same time,it is very powerful and has the effect that we saw yesterday.

It all started with the 15m time frame, I give you the cause.

Roy
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Polishing my crystal ball
Thankyou for revealing a different perspective to trading. I look fwd to further explaination of cause v effect.
What do you think the cause is in supply/demand?
Great thread! Thanks so much for sharing this fascinating insight with us...I'll keep re-reading it until I actually understand all of it
Quoting 30XTCi
so in responce to Merlin's claim that there is nothing new in Forex


i said that?!?

i believe the quote was "its hard to find a unique thread"! and right after i said that it was proven by my own redundant thread posting

thanks for making it a little easier btw
Relax and be happy.
Riddle: Why (or how ) do doji's prove the markets are not random.



Coming soon :Trajectory's......"holes thru the air".

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
Johan777, I have no idea about supply and demand cause, you would need to interview every trader in the world, and ask them. Sorry.

Merlin, wink wink say no more.Thanks for dropping in.


For all you indicator people, I found one that I played around with a long time ago, It's appropriate for this thread. A woodies/RSI/stoch combo called a 3D(imensional) oscilator. I would'nt use it on less than 15m.

Roy
Attached File
File Type: mq4 3D_Oscilator.mq4   4 KB | 421 downloads
Polishing my crystal ball
Thanks for the indicator. Could you maybe cover a bit more on the topic of these 6 pressure points? Is your theory at all similar to J-charts?
Is it almost the same with Bill Williams Alligator?
Quoting arcus
Is it almost the same with Bill Williams Alligator?
Hi arcus, is this question about the 3D osilator? If it is then I don't know.

I had never looked at Aligator until I read your Post. I took a quick look at it and was really dissapointed. It's way too slow.
The only way to check it out is to run alligator and 3D Osilator on the same chart and observe.

Good Luck and good trading

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
Quoting 24HourTrader
Thanks for the indicator. Could you maybe cover a bit more on the topic of these 6 pressure points? Is your theory at all similar to J-charts?
Looks like it's just you and me buddy. OK now 12 hours a day (minimum) 360 days a year for 2 years comes to........errrr..........8640 hours.

Would you like a quick summary or would you like me to go into some details.



What's a J-chart?

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
What every trader wants to know, why the markets do what they do.

Trajectories

Part 1

I am going to split this section in two, you need to know the basics before proceeding to the more interesting second part.

What are trajectories and what is their purpose.
First the basics. Data points. Every candlestick ( or Bar ) has four data points know to all as OPEN,HIGH,LOW and CLOSE. Radiating out of each of these data points are four invisible rays sent out into the future looking to pick up similar signals transmited backwards from candles that will be formed in the future.
If you are a visual person, think of it like this.You are holding in your hand last weeks candle, and I am holding this weeks candle,which just closed.

From the High of your candle tie 4 pieces of string, and I will attach one to my Open, one to my High,one to my Low,and one to My close. The process is repeated until we have 16 pieces of string. These are the trajectories. In reality they pass thru my candle and into the future,they last forever.
They may pick up a signal again in two weeks or ten years or never.
It's Important to mention here that the more times a trajectory touches a candle the stronger it becomes and the more it is respected by the markets.

Each candle therefore has 32 trajectories, 16 going into the future and 16 going into the past.

The good news is, in part 1 we are only interested in two of those trajectories. The ones that go from HIGH to HIGH, and the ones that go from LOW to LOW.

Lets look at the Lows, the market moves down, hesitates, and then starts to climb again. From the low of the lowest candle a trajectory is beamed out into the future looking for another low. After the market moves up and reverses it starts its decent until a candle is formed who's lowest low, beaming out a signal into the past, locks on to the signal sent out by the previous low. The market respects this (now much stronger) trajectory and stops and reverses, climbs falls, and meets the tragectory again which it respects, making the trajectory even stronger.

But you already know all of this.

You just call it a Trendline.

This obviously is support, high to high to high is resistance.

Every candle tells a story. Every candle, on every timeframe, tags two trajectories. The highs and lows pass through them. If the trajectories are far apart, what you get is a big candle.
What I hav'nt mentioned is the clock is ticking.The market must be at a given price point at a certain time. If for some reason it gets held up and is running late, it makes up for it with the massive sudden movements that we have all seen.
The market likes order.
Now, remember, all time frames need to work together to achieve the markets goals. All these movements need to work in sync, and be ontime.

The second part is about looking for trajectories that go from swing low to swing high, back to swing low.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
Quoting 30XTCi
Looks like it's just you and me buddy. OK now 12 hours a day (minimum) 360 days a year for 2 years comes to........errrr..........8640 hours.

Would you like a quick summary or would you like me to go into some details.



What's a J-chart?

Roy

hehe I see you've worked quite a bit at this...I'd love as many details as you are willing to go into. I was reminded of j-charts because they are also a different approach to charting then standard, they are based on ticks and finding an equilibrium, with no regard to time, if I understand them correctly(which I may not lol). But I see that your method is quite different.
Quoting 30XTCi
What every trader wants to know, why the markets do what they do.

Trajectories

Part 1

I am going to split this section in two, you need to know the basics before proceeding to the more interesting second part.

What are trajectories and what is their purpose.
First the basics. Data points. Every candlestick ( or Bar ) has four data points know to all as OPEN,HIGH,LOW and CLOSE. Radiating out of each of these data points are four invisible rays sent out into the future looking to pick up similar signals transmited backwards from candles that will be formed in the future.
If you are a visual person, think of it like this.You are holding in your hand last weeks candle, and I am holding this weeks candle,which just closed.

From the High of your candle tie 4 pieces of string, and I will attach one to my Open, one to my High,one to my Low,and one to My close. The process is repeated until we have 16 pieces of string. These are the trajectories. In reality they pass thru my candle and into the future,they last forever.
They may pick up a signal again in two weeks or ten years or never.
It's Important to mention here that the more times a trajectory touches a candle the stronger it becomes and the more it is respected by the markets.

Each candle therefore has 32 trajectories, 16 going into the future and 16 going into the past.

The good news is, in part 1 we are only interested in two of those trajectories. The ones that go from HIGH to HIGH, and the ones that go from LOW to LOW.

Lets look at the Lows, the market moves down, hesitates, and then starts to climb again. From the low of the lowest candle a trajectory is beamed out into the future looking for another low. After the market moves up and reverses it starts its decent until a candle is formed who's lowest low, beaming out a signal into the past, locks on to the signal sent out by the previous low. The market respects this (now much stronger) trajectory and stops and reverses, climbs falls, and meets the tragectory again which it respects, making the trajectory even stronger.

But you already know all of this.

You just call it a Trendline.

This obviously is support, high to high to high is resistance.

Every candle tells a story. Every candle, on every timeframe, tags two trajectories. The highs and lows pass through them. If the trajectories are far apart, what you get is a big candle.
What I hav'nt mentioned is the clock is ticking.The market must be at a given price point at a certain time. If for some reason it gets held up and is running late, it makes up for it with the massive sudden movements that we have all seen.
The market likes order.
Now, remember, all time frames need to work together to achieve the markets goals. All these movements need to work in sync, and be ontime.

The second part is about looking for trajectories that go from swing low to swing high, back to swing low.

Roy
Very cool, thanks. I think I'm with you so far.
Quoting 30XTCi
Hi arcus, is this question about the 3D osilator? If it is then I don't know.

I had never looked at Aligator until I read your Post. I took a quick look at it and was really dissapointed. It's way too slow.
The only way to check it out is to run alligator and 3D Osilator on the same chart and observe.

Good Luck and good trading

Roy
No, what I mean is the picture attached above, there is three lines that looks almost the same with Aligator. Just wondering.
Quoting arcus
No, what I mean is the picture attached above, there is three lines that looks almost the same with Aligator. Just wondering.
arcus, those three lines are my interpritation of where the dimensions are.
The original signals were generated from Excel spreadsheets.

To all,

I had 4 signals, Price,direction and momentum, and one left over that I knew was important but did'nt know what it was. I gave it the name Axis. I think this is what Bill Williams called "the great divide", a place where the market shifts it's whole sentiment from one side to the other.

If you downloaded the 3D Osilator, overlay on it a 28 period Linear MA.
I have put the Indicator side by side with my system for comparison.
You will see why I played with this indicator. It's been about 12 months since I looked at it, and I am positive I tweeked it to work (best) on the 4 HR.
My system has undergone many adjustments since then as it got more sophistcated.
If you change the colours to the same on my chart it will make it easier to follow along.

My Theory is this. Before price can change direction it must cross direction.
This is Pressure Point (PP) No 1. (yellow x red).
PP2 is Direction crossing momentum (yellow x blue).
PP3 is the (usualy) last to cross and the markets reaction can be seen. (Red x Blue).
A change in direction will now take place.
WARNING. Price on your chart can and often does make a higher high/Lower low.
The reason for that is the fact that for Price to cross Momentum takes a great deal of energy and leaves price weak. When PP3 happens a lower time frame will be exhasted. You can watch that action play out between a 9 and 18 LWMA (any MA I look at will always be LW set to Typical).
PP4 is when Direction crosses the Axis (yellow x silver )
PP5 is when price crosses Axis (red x Silver ) Strong Move ( Waterflames Elite).

PP6 is the mother of them all.When Momentum crosses the Axis it's goodnight Irene.(blue x Silver) Strong move.Keep an eye on Momentum, it is the key.

You need to spend some time watching how it works.Train your eyes.
BE CAREFUL I have not used the 3D Osilator with real money, It does not have anything to do with my current system ,Stick it on a demo first.

I started this thread as a personal Journal, to try and stimulate some new ideas, if I can save one person from becomming "road kill" I will be happy,the Mods made the decision to place it here, I don't want to end up in the trading systems or I will Delete it.
If you want to tell me " WOW I made ten pips" please use the PM system.Later if anybody finds it useful be MY Guest and start your own thread in Sytems.

Roy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Similar.JPG Size: 115 KB
Polishing my crystal ball
This is a facinating approach. I am very interested in what you are saying here. I am not a mod anymore, but let me see if I can get it moved back to the journal section. I will be happy to delete this post after you have read it. Thanks for the bright star on a lately dark night.

Scott
Quoting 30XTCi
Riddle: Why (or how ) do doji's prove the markets are not random.



Coming soon :Trajectory's......"holes thru the air".

Roy
BTW if I understand this reference, I am going to have to dust off my copy of that old novel and reread it. LOL
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