Auric forecasts

I meant... TEs... TradeExplorers (not EAs - Expert Advisors...)

I believe there is a strong chance for above trade to HIT by morning, so in 8hours...

Here.. TP was a sucess... Suspected it could! be scalpable.. but wasnt confident enough to write it down... Also it was pretty clean cut... harvested much less.. suspected for TP to be 1.182+.. but didnt want to get greedy, not this time at least

Ok that was my last BUY trade for 2017.. hope anyone find it at least interesting... any of the posts in this thread or my overall posts in this forum..

Here are the latest screenshot.. showing predicted line and TP (green dot).

Well ok See you in 2018, should things go well... I expect to come here by the end of March 2018. Please vote!
I will start posting live TE... I will also live post comments in this thread, to timestamp, so it will be double verified in a way... but you must choose the type of it.. from the poll or write here what you want.

And again, all my prices that I posted in this thread and/or in this forum... since I joined in September this year, were/would hit TP... Not all of them were scalpable or clean, but they would all hit within reasonable time... Not always good for scalpers but it did hit. You be the judge.

And yes, I again reconfirm my views, downtrend till at least end of MAR18. HNY

After quite some time, hello again

Thanks to anyone that have voted...
I will consider posting 2types of TradeExplorers in near future... considering the poll results (if anyone would still like to vote, you are welcome; just post the result since poll is already closed)

TradeExplorer1 (PENDING)

1. 25% estimated annual return... max 10% exposure
2. (90% of balance "guaranteed" - for example from deposited 100EUR, 125EUR in one year expected, but at no point can deposit fall below 90EUR)

TradeExplorer2 (PENDING)

1. 900% estimated annual return.. 100% exposure (but can not owe more than deposit - negative balance protection)
2. so from deposited 100EUR, 1.000EUR is expected; worst case scenario: all deposit can be lost, but no more (no debt)

Also, please see my test "Manual/Mobile" TradeExplorer... I have selected timeframe from 01APR19... since I began trading more actively.... after small deposit..
If anyone would like (provoke) I can post FULL account since December 2018, but had just a small (pocket change) equity till middle of february march when I deposited on this account, so it would show almost the same return...

My concerns regarding the possible published further TradeExplorers is published trade list..
I really do not appreciate disclosing all my trades in those future TEs... but if there is no another way... I will find a way to scramble a little

The published TE Manual/Mobile... is my test account.. that I manually trade... manual entry at (random) times... based on the moment... I placed many over smartphone... So I am not concerned with reverse engineering the trades....

So, please vote if you haven't already... and tell me how could I maybe hide Trade List for future TEs... since they would be MT4 based that include automatic trading with built-in strategy.... otherwise I would have to manually re-trade from other account to hide my trading model.

Hello again..
I have decided to post history of this account, since 31DEC18... (in order to be listed, currently at top #50 at the "Leaderboard / Live Accounts", just to be A LITTLE more visible

Unfortunately due to the trading with pocket change before the deposit midFEB19... ALL trades are included in the statistics and I have rather bad DD... although with this kind of return it is not that strange...

Please note that I have deposit mid FEB19.. and started trading a little more seriously since 01APR19... since that date I have gained almost all the return..
if you specify statistics from 15FEB19)... return is just slightly better than since 01JAN19 BUT DD is much better (lower)... only 13%... which considering the 100% return... is quite good (although in a much shorter timeframe)... RoMaD was 7+, but it is not possible to predict how long this number can maintain, obviously..

This type of trading is not suitable for HFs etc.. due to high DD.... unless they except this style (very unlikely), risking up to 80% account for potential x10 annual profit (900%). This type of trading is considered BURNER-PULLOUT (roll and pull-out in time (to me... You deposit in hopes to get x10 (it is not unrealistic, have gained x20+ in the past but DROPPED after, AFTER I pulled out MOST). It should be aware of that at all times... it can fail pretty soon, pretty fast... HENCE the massive returns...

But THE TRADELIST is what it really counts... I separate price prediction from exploit/harvest strategy/risk management. Some people have amazing skills of predicting the market but due to bad risk/harvest management, they are in a loss.. And there are people who absolutely have no clue where the market will go but they mastered the risk management, statistical analysis etc...

THE TRADES (price prediction)
So please note that all my TP would hit in a reasonable time but SL hit first or they were manually stopped. So what I can say for the last 10years, almost ALL the prices that I modeled out, (would) HIT... although! sometimes it took months, specially when political turmoil, (central) bank interventions were in play... This is where the model breaks, at least momentarly... but (almost) all the TP that I entered, would hit eventually... which might be gold for (investment) banking but almost useless for daytraders...
BUT even if you check all the trades since 31DEC18, before I deposited a little more, when I played with change... you would see that for example trade entered on 06JAN19.. it was heavy loss but the it would have hit cca 10days later (price prediction EXCELENT, timing/risk NOT so good; lower leverage would go through aka with wider "turning radius)), similarly it goes for 25FEB, 30JAN; but 04FEB was RUNAWAY - completely lost.. that is why I closed it within 2days... mid FEB I deposited.. and traded a little more seriously since.. although heavy loses still possible

The Statistics doesnt show intratrade DD for example, but I can tell you even since 15FEB19, I had some pretty heavy intratrade exposure, it just went through and the statistics was undented from it, but still...

CONCLUSION: I am pretty open about this. This type of trading, with that kind of leverage... is HIGH RISK.. could loose ALL but you could ALSO gain x10 or more (I would not promote x10 to anyone, it is pretty stressful to trade pass that for my account, without taking even moral risk for anyone else...) I would however maybe post that type of account if people would be absolutely aware of the 100% exposure for not unlikely x10 gain (in a year).

PROFITABILITY
This I consider a separate thing... and I still struggle with this... I still havent figured out the optimal TP/SL sets/ratios and Im very poor/unexperienced with TS (one of the reason is that my TPs were many times BARELY hit within desired timeframe and I could not wait for additional TS pips)... but over the years I found that 50:1 might be optimal leverage for relatively small accounts (although risky, good for HIGH RISK/PROFITs) and with certain TP/SL that I wont go into now... since it is very religious thing (for many) almost and many traders start to drop the "golden rules", "magic ratios" etc.. where I preferably look it in the WHOLE PICTURE aka ENDGAME perspective.. rather than individual trade...

THE ENDGAME
At the end, only RETURN counts, secondly exposure, DD etc., thirdly volume/trades over (turbulent) times for "certainty" assesment.. but even then you can not know for sure. I still can not exclude luck factory out of any of my trades, to be honest.. Specialy since I am well aware of the many traps traders can trap themselves into...

TRACKRECORD
I have still profitable account at OANDA, after more than 10years of LIVE trading, but mainly due to discipline, following one of the "golden rules": "learn when NOT TO TRADE"... When I am not sure, I lower the deposit or switch to DEMO... or just modeling the charts without any positions... as seen in some of my previous posts...

FURTHER STEPS..
I will now stop (temporary) trading in this sub-account (but will leave it linked) since I have to test some strategies/model.. that I can not possible LIVE post... due to the reverse engineering dangers...
I might consider posting two more sub-accounts later, by specifications above... max 10% exposure for potential 25% gain (annually both)... and 100% exposure for potential 900% gain...
But as many of you have stated... should one be able REAL trading over periods of time OR do a REAL burner... at least few times a year... why would anyone need to show this to anyone? I am still undecided on that part... Should I post anything... I would have to scramble my trades and in the endgame even risk the market adaptation... but I will leave the options open for now, specially for the FIRST type... 10% exposure for 25% gain is pretty attractive even for serious players.... That is why I leave the option open, but would have to SPECIFY the trading for this... BUT still using the same price prediction, just deploy different harvest/risk...
Price prediction is universal and If I have proven to be (rather) good at anything, this would be it.. if I would need help, I would need help with optimising the risk, exploit strategy.. for now I am doing it on the past backtesting of different TP/SL/LEV parameters... of what appears best... am still open that I waste many PIPs because of this...

BEFORE anyone tries to NEG or anything, I will do you a favor...
up to now, I still can neither confirm or deny (beyond a reasonable doubt) how much of it was luck or what might be skill; altough some probability seems to confirm otherwise... I am still careful about the set assumptions...

HOW I SEE IT...
I like to see some of the "accepted" (trading) parameters but ONLY in the WHOLE picture (Differentials, ratios...)... for example I see it like this...
I prefer to have pretty clean stat so there I prefer accounts to be set like this for example..
--
DEPOSIT: 100EUR at certain time... (no deposits/withdrawals once it starts - because some parameters show distorted picture because of it)
MAXIMUM exposure: for example 10% (10EUR)..
ESTIMATED RETURN (stop trading once reached): 25%...
TIMEFRAME: 1year..
ONCE it hit... STOP
-
but since above example is expected to rise linearly... DD could be used... and people might enter//copy/leave at any time...
---

the later is a little more tricky...
---
DEPOSIT: 100EUR at certain time...
MAXIMUM exposure: 100%
ESTIMATED RETURN (stop trading once reached): 900% (10 fold; x10)
TIMEFRAME: 1year
ONCE it hits... STOP
-
here is the trick... this type I consider BURNER (and PULL-OUT... where I do not look DD at all (almost) since it is so volatile that it would give too distorted picture, for example... if you could make x9 (nine fold) (100EUR->900EUR) and than it would drop (temporary) to 300EUR... it would show MASSIVE DD although what I would prefer is the EXPOSURE parameter which at 300EUR (from 100EUR) you would still not even DENT... So this type sub-account... I would post as a START-STOP date only... mid-frame entry is not recommended, since one could enter at PEAK and WIPE... but for the people that enter at the OPEN would still have maybe huge profits...
---


So that is about it for now... back to trading and analysis after that.... then to evaluate what/if I should post..
Also further interest from any of you might be an important factor for this...

I am (depends on the future performance... have to test something in the following months).. interesting in working at/for some of the more serious players.. but I would prefer only to provide the PRICE estimation... would prefer people to set TP/SL/LEV themselves... since price prediction is I believe my strongest part, if anything... I have posted a few samples in this thread, check the predicted/actual snapshot... And I have sampled a few trades in this TE that I am posting....
I would do more but I do not know how many people are interested this... Whats more is that some people could not seem to separate price prediction from trade...
Again, I prefer to give estimated price within estimated timeframe.. but I would much preferably avoid estimating TP/SL levels... that is why I think this would suit bigger players better than daytraders that doesnt care if price (would) hit outside their SL/STOP

For the road, I estimate that the 1.1210 will be HIT at least ONCE... (current price: 1.1195).. so TP15, other parameters.. up to strategy...)

(will be back in about 3m... unless anyone have questions now...)

not uncertain

ok hope anyone profited from this (above)...

1.1210 was HIT multiple times today... as predicted (see timestamp above).. you could gained some money if you traded it... Hope anyone appreciated, specially when I put "not uncertain" additionally... In addition, I might say that 1.1210 was rather interesting figure for the last month at least... but I am releasing it now...
So this is it folks, for now... see you in about 3m(onths)... when I will post some more predictions or post NEW TEs or update (start trading) this one... If things go well AND I see purpose of posting it (dont know if anyone even reads this).

I will test some (new) strategies (price prediction modelling is almost always the same for me, for years - just harvest strategy varies)... from which I can maybe even prepare TEs by above specs TE1, TE2.
For the TE that I have published (Manual/Mobile), I traded a little today, very few pips, just to put me at the top #40 annual leaderboard, at least for the moment.. Will leave it at that atm. Please also do not forget to check the balance/equity charts for this published TE when maybe assessing the performance, selected period after the deposit to si the lower DD.... Aslo bear in mind that stat is distorted since even cents trades are included, see the tradelist/chart for better picture... absolute (real money) NEG was rather low, specially compared to gains..

The next time I come... I will most probably either publish TE1 (25/10) and/or TE2 (900/100) or/and I would upgrade this current TE to lets say 300-500% at least, to be at the top #10, to get some attention maybe I might even put TE3 up to trade within "proven track record" which I think TE1 would naturally fit into this category...

I will also consider publishing some realy high performing (but risky of course), TE, to put me at the top of the chart, just to get some attention if that is a good thing...

Should anyone find any value of my posts and this sample TE, you can write to me... But for serious purposes only...

So thats it for now, thanks.

Hello... i played a little (some more; altough I stated that I would stop for the time) with TE (Manual/Mobile)... last week I entered for ONE additional TP (TP1)... just to round my return for the Leaderboard (was at 123%).. sadly I entered it 12min before the RED news that was not in its favour... But since my price prediction/estimation model hasn't been wrong many times in the past 10+years... I let the trade open... but unfortunately... it was AUTO-CLOSED by my broker... due to "National Futures Association's (NFA) margin requirements for 3 consecutive trading days" to be positive at specific time... So my trade got closed at -42.8PIPS (margin call would not hit even with this leverage, not even in its peak NEG, which it didn't even though the stop-out level is not that low for that broker; for the high-risk trades/accounts at least)... I entered the market later for 3+1 times (TP1.2, TP10.9 abd TP 1.2 +TP1) to round a bit just to round this TE to DOUBLE the deposit or 95,8% return for this year (2018)... Now I won't trade it for at least few months... I have to focus on trading on my other accounts of which TradeList I do not want to disclose (at least not at the moment)... I might resume trading in this TE (Manual/Mobile).... if I could estimate I could make at least 300% return (96,7% now), #45th on LeaderBoard 2019), to be placed top10 at the Leaderboard... since many of you only watch top10.. top5 or maybe just top1-3... to even look further.

Manual/Mobile (TE)... quick analysis.. the TraderReport might be (very) different, due to some trades distorting the overview, please see below:
If you break down trades since beginning or april this year... (02APR19...) it basically goes like this..

1. 3xTP in a row
2. 1xSL (-2.3PIP); FULL ACOUNT-IN (100%); -1% equity; manual close --RE-ENTERED trade 1min later with 100% account (54PIP gain), see trade 54PIP gain below); therefore not SL basically...
3. 1xSL (-17.8PIP); cca 30% ACCOUNT-IN (manual close); -2.4% --> this was additional trade (opened additional trade base on the unrealised profits of above trade (later known as 54PIP gain trade); therefore not SL basically....
4. 9TP+1EVEN
5. 1xSL (-2.1PIP); just 1% ACCOUNT-IN; -0,0% equity; was just testing something... not a real SL...
6. 22xTP
7. 1xSL (-42.8PIP); FULL ACCOUNT-IN (100%); - 17,7%... MARGIN AUTO-CLOSE due to 3rd consecutive trading day of NEG position at certain time.... TP was set at 1.1190... but was closed at 1.1234 DUE to the reason above.. The price DID reach (would) hit... within 48h after this close... I rentered the position with TP1.1190 later... but took just 10.9PIP... this trade would be TP if there would be another broker... PRICE prediction was correct... (see more below), LOSS is broker specific, would HIT if different broker/leverage/%account....
8. 3xTP

--
BASICALY all (43 OPEN>CLOSE) (potential) consecutive profits since 02APR19... if you watch closely (and that is at 50:1 or more... and that is saying something)... IF i wouldn't close certain trades (and re-entered them) or trade unrealised profits (from (still open) profitable trade), set different leverage; change broker without this auto-close.... Hope you get it... Since I published this TE, I watch not no close even for 1CENT because I do not want to have NEG in the stat... also should I continue to HARVEST like this as in this TE, I might open account at different broker, just for trade to go trough as this last SL would.... IF I find this type of strategy for HARVEST.... sensible for future trades, I might open similar account at different broker (better margin/stop conditions) and publish it (with more preferable DD etc).. BUT the price prediction (model) will/was "always" be the same... MAYBE TP would change (maybe TS would be better)... SL/leverage is what needs adjusting depending on the risk tolerance, exposure.. of the traders.... and market conditions...
--- END OF TRADING at this TE for the next few months at least---

THE PLAN: I have traded this TE back to TOP50 (#45 at the moment) on the Leaderboard and I will leave it at that, for now.. UNTIL/IF I decide (and be able) to BOOST it to 300%+ to get me to top #10 on the Leaderboard... since it seems that is the only way any of you would look TE/trades further (considering the DD for this TE, that was explained already)...

The THING is.. that PRICE PREDICTION (model) is almost alway ok, but timeframe extends for some time.. due to some speculation/waiting/intervention.. from some parties... some (temporary) things are just out of control and outside of almost any model... if there are massive anomalies/waitings/delays... hence wider SL/"turning radius" is needed....

This is the hardest thing.. as I mentioned.. I separate those 2 components... PRICE PREDICTION (model/skill/ability/*luck) and HARVEST STRATEGY (TP/SL) levels... but some people seems not to separate the two and just watch the RETURN of TE etc... For them... (addicts I plan to post TE of at least 300%, more probably 900%... but I will have to find a way to either HIDE the TradeList or scramble it (re-trade randomly from some other accounts to, because I surely don't want to reveal my price prediction model that some might reverse engineer from trades....

The separate thing is HARVEST.. I as of yet haven't found the optimal TP, SL or the ratio.. for all the market conditions/cycles... or to find the one-size-fits all TS (have almost zero experience with the later)... I as of yet haven't found better way than to estimate (backtest) certain TP, SL (ratio) levels back on the past-play scenarios for certain TP, SL, ratios.. within certain market conditions.. for example... the SLOWER the market "works", the more intervention it has.. the WIDER the "turning ratio" aka SL (room to margin etc...) it has to have... sometimes. If market is "clean"... SL can be very tight and consequently the leverage can be TIGHT...
TP I do not adjust mostly... I am, let's say.. good at PRICE PREDICTION and TP (estimation).... but SL is much harder, that is why I prefer not to advise it, traders should consider it themselves... and I also haven't backtest the optimal TS... I find TS's rather weird because it can hit it much lower than TP would but has great potential for certain trades.. if there would be some bounce.. but I am open to backtest it in the future since I suspect I miss a lot of PIPs due to too tight TP... but of course got some PIPs precisely because of it, where the TS would not reach it with the set "buffer"...

so as said.. NEXT time.. I might post promised TEs.... with return/DD parameters.. but I must do a series of trades in another account... and see what and how many trades could I fit in those TEs.. to POST.. with public TradeList that is... since it seems that is the only option to post the RETURN for certain TE... to expose the tradelist... at least here on FF

I hope anyone recognises something out of the TradeList that I fast-analysed it above... if so, you can contact me - for serious reasons only... otherwise post here and I might reply when I get back...

FINAL COMMENT (for this time, unless anyone have any questions?):
the last 6days were very weird... the model predicted price 1.1190 (6+ days ago) but it bounced just 1PIP away (TP1) because of the unfavoring news last week and later speculation/support/waiting of majority... the price doesn't seem to drop below certain point and I seriously started to think the model went to the other side...
usually when those sorts of think happened.. it was HEAVY drop/counter in a few days, maximum weeks... later... and so was this time... the market didn't seem to want to drop below certain point and the conclusion seem to form that either model stopped working or we are at the brink of (rather) MASSIVE UP or (rather) MASSIVE DOWN... today.. the price "collapsed"... due to certain things/news that you already know.. but even if there weren't... almost regardless of the news/events... the price would drop to 1.1190 eventually or rather soon (1-3weeks), because the model seems to indicate that there was MASSIVE down-push although it was delayed... usually the longer the delay, bigger the rather radical change..

For the future, I will not say you much, because I do not know how many people read this.. but let me say this... I will most probably be on the SELL side at least till the next elections (2020)....I do not prefer the BUY that much if at all... not outside of some retracement/intra trading.... So hopefully I will post some more, later.. If things/trades go according to plan (aka model works) and IF I see any value/gratification of me posting any of my trades/TEs/predictions..

Take care.

P.S. 1.1190
You are welcome.

ok, hope it helped...

see you in the in the fall
maybe

Just a quick stop... I think we are about to lock the TREND by the end of the week..
The trend for the summer, cca 22JUN19-22SEP19.... I would bet on the stronger USD by the day, not too much hopefully (to prevent some interventions on either side).. but a beautiful slide.... EURUSD SHORT for the next 3m.... with as little spikes as possible (welcomed only to be saved by the bell in some trades.. so we can tighten the leverage good..

EURUSD
22JUN19-22SEP19
DOWNTREND
RECOMENDED STRATEGY: SHORT
LEVERAGE: up to you

TP per trade: 10+ for daily.. or just TP infinity till 22SEP19 if you have BIG money...
SL: well... up to your risk strategy but if you believe in the TREND, that can pull you out of bad hole?


EURUSD, BEARISH, 3months....
See you in the fall if all goes well...

I re-affirm my views.. with extension till 10OCT19...
Happy EURUSD sliding... hope it will be a smooth/slow (down)slide...
In the next few days or by the end of (second) half of following week.. I think
we might see the clearer picture aka confirmation of above... At which point I intend to increase "the power".

reaffirming... my views...

The next time I post here (in this thread) will be after this trend-data will be confirmed/rejected.. so 10OCT19... or I'll post some signal/chart-prediction OR publish some TEs in making...

Hey guys Posted sam FORECASTED charts... yesterday, but deleted afterwards
I did noticed however that some (10+ people) of my (subscribers?) did saw it

I deleted because it is hard to predict so precise for 3months in advance.. and I would have to maintain/correct/comment... specially if the BIG BOYS will be playing with (forbidden) weapons But since I do not like to pull-out at all, out of anything.. here it goes again, but without chart, because... it would be pretty str8 forward

I WILL bet on the SELL/SHORT side starting from tomorrow, 15.7. till at least 10.10.2019.
I won't say the PIGSs, TRUMP, ECB, FED... are the (only) reasons, but they do not help

My price prediction model of 10years predicts EURUSD (slow) decline.... approx 300PIPs in the next 3months, but can be up to 1200PIPs..
I plan to enter the SELL at least once a day... should the previous trade close of course... Not on this published/current TE however, at least not initially, because the point of entries is still "secret sauce" But should the trend be proven to be correct, you could profit massively just from this/it.

The next heavy back-analysis or re-calculation, forecast will/would be on 10th of OCT 2019... At which point (10-15OCT19) we shall see if we will
have the 6month UP or continous down...

So here is the summary, no need to post chart, because I bet it to be pretty linear, with not much swings...

That would be it, for now.

reaffirmed... the one that PEAKED into the chart I posted/deleted.. could compare it SOMEWHAT already but it is pretty straightforward in the above post...
I think we shall see if above is somewhat reliable info... in the next 2-3weeks, after this charade of the (fake) Titans... FED/ECB etc.

P.S. You are most welcomed to post/watch in my other "BURNER" thread... for a "sideshow" but with real potential

Ok just a quick stop, summary...
230PIPs so far, if you would just PURE short... not to mention trade around the projected line, trend... could massively... improve... should you also make good management, important when leveraging...

here is the 1month summary... see the potential.. ENTRY point vs NOW...

This one was even cleaner... see how it dropped after that.. pretty clear/clean.. could do MAD leverage on this... even... but the TREND is the juice here, just saying about the leverage (in retrospect) to address the quality of the entry... how clean it (seems to) was, at least till now... Hope anyone appreciates...

Huh, just a quick stop... Some other thread stimulated me to made a GRAPHIC outcome of the numbers...
It came out amazing... Its almost like "Its very clear to me now, its beautiful"...
Very beautiful outcome.. for the next 3 months... chart wise... Well I have said pretty much in the previous text.. it is all in the dates/numbers..
but when you put it into graphics it is SOMETHING WONDERFUL...

Anyone care to see?

Here... (200PIP+ decline counting from next week (you could get 230+ PIPS from predicted drop (in the last) last month - see post #57 in this thread), rather linear)

P.S... There is a lot (could write a book behind it) going on beyond that oversimplified line.. but wanted to be CLEAR... without "maybe up or down" etc... etc... like others analyse and then it is unclear what they said/predicted anyway.. so that they are later always "right" in retrospect.. I give straightforward predictions... CLEAR CLEAN lines... compare it afterwards... That would be all, at least for trend.. Might post some daily/weekly in the meantime.. Will see in the next 3w-3m how it goes

In the attached chart you can see the predicted line till/by market close on 25OCT19.... at which time the closer the price will be around the 1.1000 (cca 200PIP drop 29JUL19-25OCT19), the cleaner the forecast

tnx to all reading my thread and my subscribers.. they might be awarded for this in the near future...
Wanted to reply that I am thinking abou the drop level... 3m EURUSD downtrend is almost sure... just that this ecb/fed fiasco goes through, just in case.. but I am 90%+ of the downtrend till the end of OCT (at least - at which point new projection might follow... have a vague clue already.. but that needs to be confirmed...)..
Just thinking if drop to 1.10 will be enough in the next 3m... or we might go to PAIR (parity)... ATM I am still confident for 1.10... but will confirm/correct in the next 2-3weeks...