**Introduction**I'm not sure where this thread is going to go, or where I plan on trying to take it. I really just wanted to talk about some ideas regarding 3 things to get some opinions on them and share some of my observations. New traders likely will have no idea what I am talking about. If this is you, please don't ask simple questions in this thread that can be answered with a search engine.

__The 3 Main Ideas:__

- Black-Scholes Model

- Geometric Brownian Motion

- Central Limit Theorem

I don't know everything about these 3 topics and I do not consider myself an expert on these subjects by any means.

**The First Observation**Let's briefly talk about the Black-Scholes Model. The Black-Scholes Model is one of the most widely used models for stock price behavior. It is usually talked about when pricing European options. In this model, prices actually unfold or play out via Geometric Brownian Motion. This basically means that the model assumes all things are constant and that at any given time, the price of pair, is just as likely to move 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, etc up as it is down.

It basically is the efficient market hypothesis in the sense that prices cannot be predicted. When choosing two points you think price may and may not go (SL and TP), the probability of going to each point is the same, assuming your RR is 1:1 (assuming no trading costs). This can be measured and proven many different ways and is always the case as long as your timeline for the trade to finish is infinite(you will wait till either SL or TP is hit). The one area where the Black-Scholes model fails is, it assumes the volatility of the market is constant, in this case, meaning that the time it takes to go from point to point is the same.

**This simply isn't true.**This can easily be measured and even observed with your eyes.

**So assuming the market is "efficient" and follows the Black-Scholes model, the only part of the market that isn't "efficient" is the volatility aspect. The time it takes to move from point to point.**

**What does this mean to me? Time matters... a lot.**

**Lives, Lived, Will Live. Dies, Died, Will Die.**Thoughts?