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can we calculate a Lottery in which all wins

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jul 21, 2017 9:08pm Jul 21, 2017 9:08pm
  •  fx111
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
can we mathematically calculate a system similar to lottery with one difference - that everyone gains profit in a given time......... or, if not everyone, at least the majority of people make profits at a given time ............ personally, I'm not some good mathematician, so when I try to calculate this I always end up in a circle ......example....in one day 20 euros pay 5000 people = 100 000 euros (important note: the goal is that all who have paid (or at least the majority of the people) get a profit) ... 100 000 euros : 10 winners = 10 000 euros .... so, 10 000 euros got 10 people (0.2% of players got a win - in one day) ....... however, if the rule is - the winnings goes in order 1, 2, 3 etc., so the first 10 players got a win (10 000 euros), and the next 10 000 euros should be paid to the next 10 players .... now, the problem I come across is this - the monthly fund is 3 000 000 euros : 300 winners = 10 000 euros ........... however, If you try give all the 5000 participants money that would be in a 16 months ............ and if in those 16 months (480 days) each day each participant pay 20 euros, he would have paid 9600 euros, rounded 10 000 euros ... in other words it would have a positive zero - circle ........ What I'm interested in is can you mathematically calculate a system where at least a higher percentage of people would get and how it would look in numbers?

........imagine you are a manager of a lottery and your goal is to enable high percentage of winning, how would you mathematically do it?
  • Post #2
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  • Jul 22, 2017 5:11am Jul 22, 2017 5:11am
  •  PipMeUp
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Member | 1,325 Posts
If everybody gets more than he gives where is the money coming from?

Quote
Disliked
imagine you are a manager of a lottery and your goal is to enable high percentage of winning, how would you mathematically do it?

You give me $1

45% chance I keep your bet.
10% chance I give you $2
1% chance I give you $5
0.1% chance I give you $50
0.01% chance I give you $500
0.001% chance I give you $5000
0.0001% chance I give you $30000
Rest of the cases I give your money back

Big prize money. Only 45% losers. Come and play!
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Jul 22, 2017 10:25am Jul 22, 2017 10:25am
  •  Quickly
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting PipMeUp
Disliked
If everybody gets more than he gives where is the money coming from?
Ignored

Only from funds contributed by others joining in as the enterprise progresses.

In other words, by attaching the lottery component of it to something which rests for its ongoing funding on an illegal Ponzi scheme.

It could "work", in theory, until not enough people join for it to fulfil its alleged purpose. So eventually it would collapse. But "eventually" can be a very long time, with these things (look how long Madoff lasted).

There are huge numbers of "HYIPs" formed which rest on almost the same principle, though they typically pretend to be "investing" or "trading" with the funds until the inevitable collapse. The "advantage" of doing it that way rather than as a "lottery" is that fewer laws are broken and less visibly, and its organizers may manage to have a good run with it until the slow-moving legal processes catch up with them. A "lottery" without a license to operate one would be a very big red flag to the authorities.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Jul 22, 2017 2:49pm Jul 22, 2017 2:49pm
  •  fx111
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
let me explain, idea of this lottery is not greed, is not fraud, but some kind of altruism, we want math on our side, to more people get money, but also to be mathematical sustainable system --------- but how to calculate it?.....if we achieve at least 50% people get some decent money, it's also a big number........
when i try to calculate it i'm not moving from 0.2 % winning people, which is to small ..
20 euro x 10 000 people = 200 000 euro
decent money would be 10 000 euro so only 20 people could win it, which is 0.2 % winning people.....
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Jul 22, 2017 6:33pm Jul 22, 2017 6:33pm
  •  Quickly
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting fx111
Disliked
let me explain, idea of this lottery is not greed, is not fraud, but some kind of altruism, we want math on our side, to more people get money, but also to be mathematical sustainable system --------- but how to calculate it?.....
Ignored

You seem to be missing the point of PipMeUp's (perhaps rhetorically-intended) question above.

There isn't a way to calculate it, because it doesn't exist.
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Jul 23, 2017 5:17am Jul 23, 2017 5:17am
  •  PipMeUp
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Member | 1,325 Posts
ex nihilo nihil fit
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
 
1
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jul 23, 2017 7:13am Jul 23, 2017 7:13am
  •  Quickly
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 164 Posts
Quoting PipMeUp
Disliked
ex nihilo nihil fit
Ignored

Not to mention nemo dat quod non habet.
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Jul 23, 2017 7:19am Jul 23, 2017 7:19am
  •  Catch-22
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Member | 528 Posts
As mentioned before, the only way to do it so every gets money is to get money from somewhere.

If the idea is just making more people winners, it's just a case of making the losers lose more than the winners, so that there can be more winners.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jul 23, 2017 1:47pm Jul 23, 2017 1:47pm
  •  Scotty B
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,640 Posts
When this discussion falls back into the realm of trading, I think the question might become, in a market, can we have 100 winners and just 1 or 2 losers? That question and number is a bit extreme, but how about 10 winners and 1 loser (liquidity source)? Hot potato!
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Last Post: Jul 23, 2017 5:50pm Jul 23, 2017 5:50pm
  •  fx111
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Quoting Scotty B
Disliked
but how about 10 winners and 1 loser (liquidity source)?
Ignored
1 lose 1000$ and 10 people gets 100$.
in lottery a lot of people lose and only 1 wins.

but what about 50% winners? (but those who lose, lose only small amount)
 
 
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