Disliked{quote} Well with a potential interest hike then I guess it's always going to gain. Only confusing thing is what level could it reach. 1.50 by year close?Ignored
I look for value wherever it can be found
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Disliked{quote} Well with a potential interest hike then I guess it's always going to gain. Only confusing thing is what level could it reach. 1.50 by year close?Ignored
Disliked{quote} I really dont think so... IMO we may need lots of things to go well for UK for that to happenIgnored
Disliked{quote} Well, it could. But my guess is that either BoE wont be so daring in their rate hike, or that the fed will be further ahead.Ignored
Disliked10/04/2018 --- Today's theme seem to be one of risk-on. Intuitively, it seems that concessions by China has helped to sooth trade war fears. That said, I do have my doubts that the optimism will last. With the volatility and sensitivity in the recent months, it wont take much to spark another selloff. My particular attention has been diverted to AUDJPY. A classic currency to trade risk sentiment. Specifically, a short AUDJPY seems like a potential value bet. Im betting that with the recent sensitivity to headline events, markets will be easily spooked...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I agree with your Aud analysis but short Aud/cad. The nafta agreement will drive the Aud way more down than the jpy. Oil is doing very well and this will contribute to cad also. The jpy is going to remain risk on sentiment periodically and only be useful in providing pullbacks which it has done. It doesn't have the legs to cause a long term down trend. So there will be alot of aud selling and cad buyingIgnored
Disliked{quote} Well CAD as a counter currency could be a possibility. But it slightly skews away from the risk sentiment play which was intended.Ignored
Disliked{quote} You mentioned 1-3 months. Are you saying 1-3 because the white house said that's when trade negotiations would be finalized? I hope the below helps you: At their March meeting, the RBA kept monetary policy unchanged with the Cash Rate remaining at 1.5% as expected. In their accompanying statement, the RBA reiterated that they judged holding policy rates is consistent with sustainable economic growth and reaching the inflation target. Furthermore, low rates continue to support the domestic economy and that the outlook is for faster growth...Ignored
Disliked{quote} It was an arbitrary horizon. Ideally, I want to see feds decision in june. Which could have implication on US equities and consequently, risk sentiment. Trade negotiations are under consideration. I view it as being exposed to more downside risk due to the recent relief rally. Due to the volatile nature of this speculation, i decided not to extend my trade horizon too far. Aussie wise, I am rather convinced that the lack of interest rate growth will hamper AUD strength. IMO, the economy is still not growing in any meaningful way. If it were,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Are you also keeping an eye on China? This could have an effect on your short as well. China CPI came out bad so lets see if it takes its toll on AUD. I made quite a few pips going long on Aud last month due to positive cpi from china.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yeah im watching China but taking their economic data with a grain of salt. From what I have been reading, China is rumoured to be gaming their economic data to serve their interest. A safer way for me is to monitor their major trade partners or data which is not under their control.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Synicz, "A safer way for me is to monitor their major trade partners or data which is not under their control. " When you get time, could you please list the data that you watch/major trade partners to assess China? ThanksIgnored
Disliked{quote} I dont rely on a particular source haha. I usually read analyst reports, especially those by banks, and rely on the data they provide in their report. But i do take their opinion and view with a grain of salt (You never know what their agenda is). From my knowledge, Aussie economy has quite a large dependence on exports to China, South Korea too. Data regarding exports of construction/industrial materials to China serve as a proxy to the pace of expansion in China. Import data should be relatively "clean" too. These data are harder to fake...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks Synicz... One follow up Question: "Data regarding exports of construction/industrial materials to China serve as a proxy to the pace of expansion in China. Import data should be relatively "clean" too. These data are harder to fake as it involves data from other parties." In your experience, does analyzing Import/Export Data serve as a proxy for pace of expansion in general for any country? Is the method effective {or} are there any direct metrics one can utilize?Ignored
Disliked{quote} It is true to a certain extent that imports/exports data can be used as a proxy to assess the health of a country's economy. But IMO more so for China. As i am unsure how trustable are their local data release. Generally there are "better" metrics to follow. I quote the word better as each metric has their pros and cons. IMO one must know what are the strengths and weaknesses of each metric. For example, Manufacturing Output data does not account for service sector performance. Thus if the country is highly relient on their service industry,...Ignored
Disliked13/04/2018 --- I can't help but notice the risk-on sentiment in asian session today. Sentiment play seems very strong today. Possibly a continuation of US session. I spot an opportunity to capitalize on this market sentiment by longing gbpjpy for today. Riding on BoE's rate hike speculation plus yen's risk sentiment attribute. Both factors seems to be in play strongly the past week and today. I will be holding this position latest till the end of asian session. Don't want to risk dabbling with US market moves on a friday.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Very good idea but take into consideration they will announce today potential attacks on syria which will create safe haven play so this trade is only valid maybe until afternoon. I am long gbp/aud. Reasons are in my fundamental thread.Ignored