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Writing Naked Call Options... w/Martingale

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jan 16, 2008 5:56pm Jan 16, 2008 5:56pm
  •  jones247
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
An individual could have been making about 15% - 20% per month writing (selling/shorting) naked call options over the last 3 - 4 months. If after a huge upswing break-out, one would write a call option in/at-the-money, it would yield a reasonably safe return. The common belief that selling options, especially calls, is VERY RISKY is a "red herrin". Although one is allowed to sell puts in an IRA, the selling of calls in an IRA is disallowed. The logic is really unreasonable. Although the market trends upward over the course of time, the reality is that it plummets in a short span of time, but rarely skyrockets in a short span of time. I would be VERY NERVOUS selling puts because any number of "black swan" events could occur that send sheer panic thru the market; thus causing a castostrophic collapse of the market. In the selling of calls, one need not worry about any geo-political or natural disasters, as such events would only secure the position of an individual who sells calls.

Now the obvious question.. what if the market goes up against my position, especially if I'm selling ATM or ITM? Good question... that's where the notorious martingale system comes into play. I know, I know any mention of the word martingale is considered an anathema of the worst kind; however, if used in moderation and with discretion, it can be a powerful tool. So, how would I use the martingale strategy? Well, I'm glad you asked... if the trade goes against you by twice the value of the premium received, then cut your loss and sell twice as many contracts/lots. Remember, the entry point comes after a big break-out, and the 1st liquidation after a 8% - 13% increase on top of the break-out.

HOW MANY TIMES HAS AN UNDERLYER RISEN MORE THAN 30% IN A MONTH? HOW MANY TIMES HAS AN UNDERLYER FALLEN MORE THAN 30% IN A MONTH? Euphoria will cause the market to rise slowly, but consistently, with a few sharp upward surges. However, fear and panic will cause the market to plummet in a fast freefall!!!
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:17pm Jan 16, 2008 6:17pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Quoting jones247
Disliked
HOW MANY TIMES HAS AN UNDERLYER FALLEN MORE THAN 30% IN A MONTH? Euphoria will cause the market to rise slowly, but consistently, with a few sharp upward surges. However, fear and panic will cause the market to plummet in a fast freefall!!!
Ignored
This is a very good point...

I was wondering which brokers allow you to write naked calls for forex? I thought they were OTC.

TrevA
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:30pm Jan 16, 2008 6:30pm
  •  jones247
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
IB or Optionsxpress allow for writing options (including currency pairs); however, it's traded through the ISE or PHLX exchanges, not OTC. Nor does it include the cross currencies. Saxobank allows OTC option writing against the spot currency market.
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:07pm Jan 16, 2008 11:07pm
  •  jones247
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
I'm surprised that no one has an opinion about this thread. Are there any 1kt FF traders or others familiar with options who'd care to weigh-in on this topic?

Walt
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:11pm Jan 16, 2008 11:11pm
  •  jones247
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
Is there anyone here at FF who is experienced in writing options in the forex, equity or futures market?

Walt
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:41am Jan 17, 2008 12:41am
  •  WHTenn
  • Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 1,758 Posts
This is more of a spot forex forum
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:27pm Jan 17, 2008 1:27pm
  •  natejax
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Student of the Markets | 413 Posts
i write both calls and puts from time to time in my equity account. you have to have A LOT of capital though and really need to diversify your approach. you sell the calls when a stock gets overextended to the upside and buy them back on a correction. conversely, you sell the puts when a stock tanks really hard.

i did not know you could write puts in an IRA, that actually surprises me. i agree that puts are more risky to write than calls. i guess it is the theoretical "infinite possible loss" that creates greater restriction on call writing.

options are priced to inherantly favor the seller, so by writing them, you are turning odds in your favor over the long run.

long options can still be an excellent strategy in certain cases. i only use them if i am looking for an immediate change in price on something.

i never tried any martingale stuff with the options but would like to see a specific example of how this would work, if you don't mind, Jones. thanks for this thread. i like options but you don't see much discussion about them.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:38pm Jan 18, 2008 5:38pm
  •  PFXGlobal
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jul 2007 | 22 Posts
If you are interested I just finished a webinar on that very subject. I posted links to it in the news forums here on Forex Factory. I have been writing options for a long time and with the introduction of exchange traded options in the US last year it has become a great strategy in the forex. I am a big fan of selling options personally.

John Jagerson
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:42pm Jan 18, 2008 6:42pm
  •  TIckerShuffl
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 2,903 Posts
Quoting jones247
Disliked
An individual could have been making about 15% - 20% per month writing (selling/shorting) naked call options over the last 3 - 4 months. If after a huge upswing break-out, one would write a call option in/at-the-money, it would yield a reasonably safe return. The common belief that selling options, especially calls, is VERY RISKY is a "red herrin". Although one is allowed to sell puts in an IRA, the selling of calls in an IRA is disallowed. The logic is really unreasonable. Although the market trends upward over the course of time, the reality is that it plummets in a short span of time, but rarely skyrockets in a short span of time. I would be VERY NERVOUS selling puts because any number of "black swan" events could occur that send sheer panic thru the market; thus causing a castostrophic collapse of the market. In the selling of calls, one need not worry about any geo-political or natural disasters, as such events would only secure the position of an individual who sells calls.

Now the obvious question.. what if the market goes up against my position, especially if I'm selling ATM or ITM? Good question... that's where the notorious martingale system comes into play. I know, I know any mention of the word martingale is considered an anathema of the worst kind; however, if used in moderation and with discretion, it can be a powerful tool. So, how would I use the martingale strategy? Well, I'm glad you asked... if the trade goes against you by twice the value of the premium received, then cut your loss and sell twice as many contracts/lots. Remember, the entry point comes after a big break-out, and the 1st liquidation after a 8% - 13% increase on top of the break-out.

HOW MANY TIMES HAS AN UNDERLYER RISEN MORE THAN 30% IN A MONTH? HOW MANY TIMES HAS AN UNDERLYER FALLEN MORE THAN 30% IN A MONTH? Euphoria will cause the market to rise slowly, but consistently, with a few sharp upward surges. However, fear and panic will cause the market to plummet in a fast freefall!!!
Ignored
Equities take the stairs up and the elevator down...heard someone say that on Fast Money hehe
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:05pm Jan 18, 2008 7:05pm
  •  ragingbull94mtx
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 115 Posts
I write options on forex. Originally I start out writing naked calls and although I experienced a 30%+ return in one month, I gave it all back within a short time thereafter. So from there I tried limited risk spreads... namely a put time spread, and then a diagonal spread (none of these trades involved spot transactions).

Currently I am writing *covered* options only (spot + option). My strategy has proved profitable, but I did deviate from it at times when I thought I had a high probability trade. For example, I wrote a naked CAD/JPY call back when it was trading around the 116 level... but gave back all those gains when I wrote a deep in-the-money covered call on GBP/JPY (essentially a naked put).

Personally, I'd rather sell covered options based on my experiences. Your idea sounds interesting, but I wouldn't risk it on my personal account. It has nothing to do with the strategy itself... more to do with the broker... and I don't feel like switching to try something that isn't my own [strategy].
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jan 19, 2008 2:15pm Jan 19, 2008 2:15pm
  •  jones247
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
I believe the safest course is to write calls against the indices in the futures market. I would not double up more than once or twice, depending on market sentiment. I would only write an option after a big upswing.

Walt
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jan 19, 2008 10:56pm Jan 19, 2008 10:56pm
  •  ragingbull94mtx
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 115 Posts
Quoting jones247
Disliked
I believe the safest course is to write calls against the indices in the futures market. I would not double up more than once or twice, depending on market sentiment. I would only write an option after a big upswing.

Walt
Ignored
Sounds interesting, I agree. And indices would be the better option (no pun intended) vs forex. Later in the year, I'm going to look into futures and futures options... mainly for interest rates, though. I might try this on an index to see what happens. Thanks for the tip.
 
 
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