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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

You talk the talk I walk the talk 8 replies

Attachments: Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
Exit Attachments

Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Quoting bullrock
I was listening, though you dont know. And went short at the trendline break. And then at the 20 day breakout....
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By Roger Cheng


Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The general economic conditions and weaker housing starts weighed on DISH Network Corp.'s (DISH) subscriber growth, according to Chairman and Chief Executive Charles Ergen.

In addition, competition was a factor, Ergen told analysts during the company's fourth-quarter conference call on Tuesday.

The delay in the launch of new satellites prevented DISH from going after certain local markets because it lacked the high-definition content, he said.
DISH expects to be competitive with other video providers with 100 high- definition channels by the end of the year, Ergen said. The company currently offers about 70 high-definition channels in 34 local markets. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV) were among the video players that did well despite the economic conditions, he said.

One positive is AT&T Inc.'s (T) decision to sell only DISH service in its territory starting in April, he said. AT&T previously sold both DISH and DirecTV because of an existing relationship inherited through its acquisition of BellSouth Corp.

DISH hasn't yet turned the corner for subscriber additions, Ergen said, noting that the company still has work to do in improving its customer service.
"In terms of answering phones to the standards we set, we're not doing it yet, " he said. DISH expects subscriber acquisition costs to rise in 2008 over a year ago because the company plans to buy customer equipment from a third party, according to DISH executive.

DISH declined to comment on any plans for a share repurchase, saying that while there are opportunities with the balance sheet and cheap price, the company is taking a more cautious stance due to the uncertainties of the economy.

DISH shares recently fell 3.6%, or $1.11, to $29.55.
-By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2020; [color=#003399][email protected][/color]


Yeah, Yeah, blame the housing mess on your crappy service!
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Borat on Letterman...

Inserted Video


Hilarious
Just had to check on all of my CHA CHING longs

CHA-CHING
Just Trade It
Euro just broke 1.50 ... new world worder?
Quoting branco
Euro just broke 1.50 ... new world worder?
SOB is kicking butt today... I though too much at 4900 and missed the train...

From 1.50 to 1.55 all we gonna read here will be "euro has topped, it's going down now" LOLLL
Quoting cesarnc
SOB is kicking butt today... I though too much at 4900 and missed the train...

From 1.50 to 1.55 all we gonna read here will be "euro has topped, it's going down now" LOLLL
Lets see if it isn't false break first... hoping it isn't since i entered at the break
Huge day today... makes one wonder if the Fed's panic cuts were actually enough to keep equities from crashing.

An important resistance level was broken around 12600 and now an even more important resistance level sits at 12800.

If we break 12800, I'm going to take a short vacation from trading the Dow to re-examine by bearish sentiment in a bullish market with absolutely no fundamental reason for bulls to be running wild. The market is really overdoing every rally/selloff on news. Seems the theme for February is that news for individual companies matters more than economic data.

Oil over $100, EUR/USD over 1.50... I guess $1000 gold is next.
Quoting youalreadykn
Dow to re-examine by bearish sentiment in a bullish market with absolutely no fundamental reason for bulls to be running wild.
"no fundamental reason"? Maybe in the United States of Jupiter!

- Bad housing - expected

- Further writedowns speculation - expected

- Bad consumer sentiment - expected

- Fed's monstrous statement saying "inflation not as much concern as economic growth" - A.K.A. further rate cuts

- Strong PPI doesn't help the recession cause at all

- Existing home sales - steady

- Insurers bailout

- Giant non-financial companies with strong earnings, outlook.

You can say that moves seem exacerbated, but you can't say there were no movers at all.
Quoting cesarnc
"no fundamental reason"? Maybe in the United States of Jupiter!

- Bad housing - expected

- Further writedowns speculation - expected

- Bad consumer sentiment - expected

- Fed's monstrous statement saying "inflation not as much concern as economic growth" - A.K.A. further rate cuts

- Strong PPI doesn't help the recession cause at all

- Existing home sales - steady

- Insurers bailout

- Giant non-financial companies with strong earnings, outlook.

You can say that moves seem exacerbated, but you can't say there were no movers at all.
cesar,

People don't read. Let me restate:

The bad news received today was old bad news, which had already been factored in as not so bad since it was old bad and not new bad. Therefore any old bad news that became new bad news is really good news as it was expected to be bad.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting DutchTrader
cesar,

People don't read. Let me restate:

The bad news received today was old bad news, which had already been factored in as not so bad since it was old bad and not new bad. Therefore any old bad news that became new bad news is really good news as it was expected to be bad.
But there are good news popping, too. Insurers bailout, rate cuts outlook, IBM profit forecast....

Fact is old bad news are as bad as old, while new good news are pumping fresh air into the markets.
Quoting cesarnc
But there are good news popping, too. Insurers bailout, rate cuts outlook, IBM profit forecast....

Fact is old bad news are as bad as old, while new good news are pumping fresh air into the markets.
Bingo. I joke but it is true, the bad news is the same as we've heard since last summer. "Subprime/Credit Crunch" is 1 yr old already.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting cesarnc
But there are good news popping, too. Insurers bailout, rate cuts outlook, IBM profit forecast....

Fact is old bad news are as bad as old, while new good news are pumping fresh air into the markets.
For every piece of good news these days, there are 10 pieces of bad news released alongside it.

Anyone can find glimpses of good in a situation, but the only good is on a case by case basis and that does little for the entire economy.

IBM forecasts... Google collapses.
Rate cuts... I think I already stated that Fed funds futures had cuts to 2.25% priced into the markets since the beginning of the month so that's nothing new or market changing.
Insurers bailout... that page hasn't even begun to turn yet. Wait until people start paying as much attention to the CDS markets as they should. The amount of debt owed will be obscene, major US banks are the counterparties to these default swaps, and there is no bailout imaginable to save the markets if even one of these defaults occur.
Quoting DutchTrader
Therefore any old bad news that became new bad news is really good news as it was expected to be bad.
and don't forget the lies behind the truth, and the truth that is behind the lies that are behind that truth.
Quoting youalreadykn
Wait until people start paying as much attention to the CDS markets as they should. The amount of debt owed will be obscene, major US banks are the counterparties to these default swaps, and there is no bailout imaginable to save the markets if even one of these defaults occur.
I wouldn't think it will be as horrible as you describe.
CDS markets will price in the cost of reinsuring this stuff over time. So what, debt gets expensive and hard to come by. Bailout? Why bailout? A little restructuring here, a little write-down there ,all over time and in a semi-controlled fashion, add a pinch of cooked books (as much as still possible), and the pot should keep from boiling over...
Quoting digitil
I wouldn't think it will be as horrible as you describe.
CDS markets will price in the cost of reinsuring this stuff over time. So what, debt gets expensive and hard to come by. Bailout? Why bailout? A little restructuring here, a little write-down there ,all over time and in a semi-controlled fashion, add a pinch of cooked books (as much as still possible), and the pot should keep from boiling over...
If there is ANY major default, there is no restructuring and no write-down to control the fallout because there will be money owed and paid. I'm not saying there will definitely be a default, but even with the current "bailouts" the odds are strongly in the favor of a default occurring in the next 12 months. Also, debt doesn't just get more expensive... the counter-parties must put up more and more collateral as that debt becomes more expensive.

Here's a quote from a respected economist from 2007:

"The Fed has found the rate of change of home prices is the best determinant of foreclosures. If house prices fall 20%, we will have 13 million houses with negative equity. If a 30% fall occurs, 20 million houses with negative equity. That's 40% of U.S. households.

Financial institutions are taking these losses and we don't know where it is. Fed tried to step in August like it was business as usual, similar to previous crisises. This time, it didn't work. We are facing today a solvency problem, not a liquidity problem. The Fed's policies are meant to step in and provide short term lending to prevent an unnecessary loss of confidence and a run on a bank. But this time we have a lot of loans not worth their full value."

Simply put, Fed cuts are just a slight offset in the form of liquidity to the inevitable losses of the housing/credit crisis. The Fed can cut to 0% if they want, but do you really think they want to deal with that kind of inflationary pressure knowing that they can do absolutely nothing to stop the housing crisis? It's like someone living paycheck to paycheck who has enough to pay the rent every month, but not enough to pay the cable bill or buy groceries.... and you give them a shiny new credit card that they max out over time to survive. You have given them everything they need/want in the short-term, but the problem still isn't solved until they finally realize that they cannot continue under the current conditions.

I think the Fed needs to start actually caring about the general public and make this the floor for interest rates to combat inflation. They have more control over inflation than economic growth and need to start acting like it. People, companies, and banks who over-leveraged into the wrong investments need to see a "margin call" before we all move forward. I don't think anyone on this board would applaud a trader who kept making deposits to an account to feed a losing trade with the idea of delaying a margin call until the trade goes in their favor, so why does anyone applaud a Fed rate cut or bailout or capital injection?
Just one of many areas of the economy to look at to understand why more bad news is not necessarily more bad news:

[Briefing.Com] On balance, the retail rally was driven by a sense that bad news had already been priced in and a measure of relief that the results weren't worse than feared. Home Depot typified this response as it ended the day little changed despite missing analysts' consensus fourth quarter EPS estimate by three cents and warning that it anticipates earnings from continuing operations to decline 19% to 24% on a per share basis in 2008.

The disappointing report from Home Depot was one of the excuses the market could have used to sell off. Tuesday's economic releases provided plenty of excuses too.

+ + +

4th qtr eps miss by 0.03 cents hmm. Now look at the chart for HD. This time last year it was around the low $40's. Now it is $29. I think many who wanted to sell have done so. Same with other retailers/banks/home builders/etc.

Now if things get really bad many times over what has happened to date then they selling will resume.
if euro hit 2.0000, it mean the u.s. economy will never recover and we are now a third world country.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
Quoting digitil
and don't forget the lies behind the truth, and the truth that is behind the lies that are behind that truth.
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Quoting Moe
if euro hit 2.0000, it mean the u.s. economy will never recover and we are now a third world country.
Not such a bad thing. In government circles, it is already expected that by 2029, we will no longer be the only super power in economic and military terms. Time to sit back and let the rest of the world solve their own problems. Our politicians created all the mess, let them try to clean it up. Otherwise, when we do turn into a thrid world country, what do they do to their politicians? They drag them into the streets, muddy their faces and to some extremes, cane them. In some countries, politicians get put to the gallows.
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