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The Swamp

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Ukraine has been detoured from putting a drone sinking ships in the oil ports of Russia. They could block shipping.. Taking out storage tanks in those ports can do the job too. Those drones are bad ass. Ukraine can take away Putin's credit card. I suspect they will at some point. Than China/N Korea will have no use for him. His people will bring out the gallows Israel can stop Iran from pumping if it came to that. The rest of the non opec dont want that.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The non oil rise, may be the thinking that things are not so bad ( ME war wise). Can anyone remember a time when Israel and M.E. tensions did not cause a rise after a bombing? In that price chart, one can see the price dropping since June 22. That covers last October till now. The week of October 7 closed at 71.81, on October 10 2023. 1 year later after bombing Iran (last week). This month may close below 71.81. ATM that doesn't look good for oil. When it's broken down with the fundies before a possible adding of Tariffs. Oil is volatile...
With 2 weeks left to go this month. We may see oil slip. Russia is likely in trouble below 54.82 sustained for a year or more. The lower it goes, the faster the trouble for Russia. This week did close below 70.78.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Storage is in the low area of the last 5 years. Yet price is so far, not rising. The last time storge was this low was july 2022. Price was near the high of the last 5 years.
With storage at the lows 2024-25. And price at the lows. Does anyone think oil companies want to "drill drill drill"? Price is on the edge of falling. It can go up. Storage is growing slightly. That's just the reality. A dropping price, on rising storage = less demand. Or at least the demand is not causing a rise in price. On a rising storage. So if we see a further drop in price. It stands to reason the demand is less. With with more build in storage. We may be seeing a recession in the early stages. Caterpillar stock price lines up to this. Copper has not atm. Although it did slip some later last week. Storage has not been this low in 5 years. price should have risen as storage dropped.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
Storage is in the low area of the last 5 years. Yet price is so far, not rising. The last time storge was this low was july 2022. Price was near the high of the last 5 years. With storage at the lows 2024-25. And price at the lows. Does anyone think oil companies want to "drill drill drill"? Price is on the edge of falling. It can go up. Storage is growing slightly. That's just the reality. A dropping price, on rising storage = less demand. Or at least the demand is not causing a rise in price. On a rising storage. So if we see a further drop in...
Today's storage is less than July 2022. But the price is 57% less. Price was 121$ pb in July 2022. Today about 71$ PB. Something is going on. Price should of risesn as storage fell. That so far has not happened. If "drill drill drill happens. We may see negative prices again. Price should be going up. The reality is, its not. Subject to change.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Today's storage is less than July 2022. But the price is 57% less. Price was 121$ pb in July 2022. Today about 71$ PB. Something is going on. Price should of risesn as storage fell. That so far has not happened. If "drill drill drill happens. We may see negative prices again. Price should be going up. The reality is, its not. Subject to change.
Copper did retreat about .20$ Friday. Its in a bullish uptrend. If that stops, its not a good economy outlook. If oil slips its another sign. Cat stock may have already pointed to a fall.
With things so fragile. Those tariffs can set this in motion.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont want to give you false hope. You should always have a stop loss when the trae it taken. You should always know your risk limitation and have it set before taking the trade. Anyway 1.4106, 1.4133, or in this chart. The 1.4136 area may give you something back. Here you can go back to the year open close or quarter. Just fill in the blanks to see what it has in the larger fibs. https://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/#google_vignette The ypp is 1.4027 it may be pulling it there. {image} {image}
Its given some back since the low. You want it to hold above 1.4178.. Friday closed the week above.
Quoting Dhruv2002
please any one give me some advise i am long in USDCAD from 1.46742 and it is becoming night mare i am wating to see if in march USD might get stronger i am in big loss
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its given some back since the low. You want it to hold above 1.4178.. Friday closed the week above. {quote} {image}
Yes, because 1.41 can be a strong support level.any way keeping DXY index and other factors in mind it will hover around these levels ,even short further.the key is march and april ,also FOMC
Quoting Dhruv2002
{quote} yes i accept that it was big mistake that being said i still have 250% margin level , i can wait till march perhaps till 1st april,the last hope is reciprocal tariffs and it will hit CA economy , at that time even i manage to recover 50% i will have no regret
Yeah the tariff should be inflationary (usd/cad rise). If investors from other countries are selling their U.S. holdings. That may stop the usd from rising. Crazy shit is happening out of normal. We dont know if treasury games are being played. Plus at any moment jawboning the interest rate can happen. An attempt to fire Fed members could sink the usd. We will hear more jawboning. I expect tweet X pressure on Powell. When that happens, not if. You dont want to be on the wrong side of the reactions.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah the tariff should be inflationary (usd/cad rise). If investors from other countries are selling their U.S. holdings. That may stop the usd from rising. Crazy shit is happening out of normal. We dont know if treasury games are being played. Plus at any moment jawboning the interest rate can happen. An attempt to fire Fed members could sink the usd. We will hear more jawboning. I expect tweet X pressure on Powell. When that happens, not if. You dont want to be on the wrong side of the reactions.
Jawboning can shake the market short-term, but Fed policy is data-driven, not just political noise i guess..
  • #121,110
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  • Edited 11:59am Feb 17, 2025 11:48am | Edited 11:59am
A up swing in commercial air fatalities, and near fatalities. 300 more aviation employees fired this weekend. More pressure on the remaining. What could possibly go wrong?
The morons fired the guys in charge of the Nuke stockpiles Thursday. On Friday they tried to get them back. The sent for them emails to come back. To the government email address they were locked out of after being fired. You can't make this shit up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Dhruv2002
{quote} Jawboning can shake the market short-term, but Fed policy is data-driven, not just political noise i guess..
Most traders dont have a few hundred pips in cushion.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Most traders dont have a few hundred pips in cushion.
agreed i play xauusd in that tight condition,but cad,eur and chf i always have 300 to 350% margin. no matter how good your fundamental & technical this things are uncertain
I had hoped the eu would come back to 0429/0442 area. So far, nothing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah the tariff should be inflationary (usd/cad rise). If investors from other countries are selling their U.S. holdings. That may stop the usd from rising. Crazy shit is happening out of normal. We dont know if treasury games are being played. Plus at any moment jawboning the interest rate can happen. An attempt to fire Fed members could sink the usd. We will hear more jawboning. I expect tweet X pressure on Powell. When that happens, not if. You dont want to be on the wrong side of the reactions.
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Quoting gatorinla
I had hoped the eu would come back to 0429/0442 area. So far, nothing.
are you shorting ??
Quoting Dhruv2002
{quote} {image}
You mean like Carrier, and Foxconn did last time?
Those auto parts are moved several times through the borders. Car prices will surely rise. That taxes me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Dhruv2002
{quote} are you shorting ??
no
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You mean like Carrier, and Foxconn did last time? Those auto parts are moved several times through the borders. Car prices will surely rise. That taxes me.
right now i just hope for best,anything can happen one thing sure is you can't trust USA .sometimes trump him self don't realise what he is speaking i live in canada ,interest rate are cut down for now becasue of that idiot and i saw no changes in that and i will only exit my position once it below 1.39 (y not take risk if i already fall this much)
Quoting Dhruv2002
{quote} right now i just hope for best,anything can happen one thing sure is you can't trust USA .sometimes trump him self don't realise what he is speaking i live in canada ,interest rate are cut down for now becasue of that idiot and i saw no changes in that and i will only exit my position once it below 1.39 (y not take risk if i already fall this much)
I had hope this 12h candle would yield a 2X at 1.4282 for ya.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had hope this 12h candle would yield a 2X at 1.4282 for ya. {image}
Let see how 4178/72 reactants.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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