The Swamp

I wouldn't measure a day candle against a month candle. This and below 9570 is something to not ignore. My 6 mth 3 mth 1 mth are bullish. The wk bearish on the edge. 1.9345 area is not out the possibilities.
Day chart
I dont have to short it. I can place a pending if it falls.

I took a eg short against my 12h R at 8484. The high left is 8499 on June 28.
Its also a 88.9 retrace. Wish me luck

I will close if it before stop is hit. If it dont look like it will fall. Its close to adr .8487 too.

I closed

I want to go with 1.9353.. Anywhere 1.960/30 is a place to look. GBP/AUD

bad for usd

1.096 with extension to 1.098 might be the top considering the imminent risk of regional war. If nothing happen during this weekend, risk will fade out and a continuation up is expected.

A bounce/reversal here would be nice.

EU 0928/29 area is a potential top, or it may support. YPP

I got my big boy panties on.
MESU4

A very large bull/bear fight over usd is taking place here. Fundamentally the world's best economy had data showing slowing. The rest of the world economies compete with the u.s. If the u.s. is slipping, what about the others?
Why not at a very large place..
This would still be within a upper summer EU range. The lower being being 06xx.. PA may be near there for the Q3 close. If below 0689 94 or less it may break it.

ATM the eu has a large green candle on the day. If it slips (closes below) below 0870. That's probably a bad sign for bulls.

pa is already 3x adr + 10 pips today.

closing s/p.. have a good one

The usd is testing a POBO 103.20 that could launch it to a HH. It's on the edge. The POBO can fail to support. That could put it on the bear side. ATM it is not on the bear side (closed week at 103.22). It closed the quarter and the mid year above 103.22. Of course it can slip closer to a more recent 102.99 that can also support. The news Friday has many thinking more about a rate cut. It won't be the U.S. thinking of cutting rates alone.


The EU is near that 1.0928 ypp. Its hard to get an exact ypp Oanada has it at 0920. In this general area could be a top for the EU. But if it fails it could be support. On Friday pa was in this area for the EU. It held so far. The Friday close below 0922. On Friday USDX pa was near the possible support bottom at 103.20. ATM both held off a week close, atm both are on a close favoring a stronger usd. week month quarter mid year, to include the day time and lower. The 2023 close does not agree. To make a long story shorter. It aint broke till its broke. The only path for a higher Euro has to go through 0929/20 and hold it. ATM the 6 month and lower have not. The same with the USDX. I'm not saying they wont/or cant break and hold. They can do that and much more. They are being tested. During a test more news from other CB may have a repeal affect. It's a unknown. If they do break pa can run. I cant argue with that. PA can also repel these several hundred pips.

As soon as these IR drop a point or so. The U.S. housing market should take off.
There was a shortage before the Fed rise. 3 years later it just got more compression with demand. When that demand opens again home prices should rise.

It did gap open slightly above the ypp.

Attachment g

S/P possible futures buy 5.289.. Stop below 5288.5 support.
This may happen this week. Risking 2% to make 6%.

S/L at b.e. +