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The Swamp

Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I may of gotten pinned out... Admittedly my stops were aggressive... 1.1941 was the original one but the smaller stop level was 77. I chose poorly. Still flat Fibre, waiting on something bullish.... Anything Event risk is clearly Powell today. He should kick the dollar and force the play at this big inflection point we are at. The number is 103.88....but it's a quarterly so it's drawn with a fat crayon.
Not seeing an algo till 103.86 or 103.99. Add some slippage.. That could drop eu a little deeper. Its looking like the usd is gaining power closing above 103.49...It and 1.07 is probably key. The usd bulls already closed a day above 103.49. EU is right on that edge.. The euro/usd is most of the usdx basket. This is the place that decides it. I dont blame people for being short. I'm usd bullish to 0.770. If not for 1.1186.. I would be short. Right here at this spot should decide. I had several scalp triggers on shorting here. But the tp would be 1.0688. The EU very close to dropping, or bouncing.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Hi Gatorinla,
Can you throw some of your analysis on AUDUSD pls?
Quoting sidhgenius
Hi Gatorinla, Can you throw some of your analysis on AUDUSD pls?
I did half already.. The usd is bullish above 1.03.49. It closed 1 day above so far.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting sidhgenius
Hi Gatorinla, Can you throw some of your analysis on AUDUSD pls?
.6816 is like eu 1.07.. Aud may find some support there. But the USD can run for months. If .6816 dont hold.. Don't fight it. China open may help that support..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Not seeing an algo till 103.86 or 103.99. Add some slippage.. That could drop eu a little deeper. Its looking like the usd is gaining power closing above 103.49...It and 1.07 is probably key. The usd bulls already closed a day above 103.49. EU is right on that edge.. The euro/usd is most of the usdx basket. This is the place that decides it. I dont blame people for being short. I'm usd bullish to 0.770. If not for 1.1186.. I would be short. Right here at this spot should decide. I had several scalp triggers on shorting here. But the tp would...
We'll see. Its definitely not an area to sit on our hands though.... I hhave a much more bearish view on the dollar in the short term, as in a target at 82.70 on the dxy before a much much more substantial move to maybe 140+(In which case Im without on 0.770)

Due to the size of these swings clearly the cost of swap makes trading with size impossible so Im mainly making those macro plays with futures options on /6E. As always, these things dont move in a straight line.

Im cloe to placing a pending limit buy for an overshoot at 1.0653 SL 1.0632 TG 1.1336
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Stopped out again. Really didn't have enough time to move the stops up. Just dead wrong the last few buys on cable and Fibre.
second day was enough for me to be somewhat hesitant on longs, all stops tight and moved quickly

Look for shorts higher up… if it gets there

1.0681 is about as good as I have round here.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had several scalp triggers on shorting here. But the tp would be 1.0688. The EU very close to dropping, or bouncing. {image}
tp would of worked.. EA is smarter
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} We'll see. Its definitely not an area to sit on our hands though.... I hhave a much more bearish view on the dollar in the short term, as in a target at 82.70 on the dxy before a much much more substantial move to maybe 140+(In which case Im without on 0.770) Due to the size of these swings clearly the cost of swap makes trading with size impossible so Im mainly making those macro plays with futures options on /6E. As always, these things dont move in a straight line. Im cloe to placing a pending limit buy for an overshoot at 1.0653 SL 1.0632...
If the dollar is near, and above 103.49.. Don't fight it.. That's usd bullish. It just needs the EU to play ball. The Eu has cooperated since last week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the dollar is near, and above 103.49.. Don't fight it.. That's usd bullish. It just needs the EU to play ball. The Eu has cooperated since last week
Fat Crayon.... I have 103.88 as my 103.49 for trade entries....

But Im certainly in no hurry to take another trade after suffering back to back stop outs
Quoting Don96
{quote} second day was enough for me to be somewhat hesitant on longs, all stops tight and moved quickly Look for shorts higher up… if it gets there 1.0681 is about as good as I have round here.
i lost 4 on gu at 1.1967.

i will look to short EU 1.0710 ish and GU 1.2005
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Fat Crayon.... I have 103.88 as my 103.49 for trade entries.... But Im certainly in no hurry to take another trade after suffering back to back stop outs
Its not looking like "Tuesday takeback day." Lets see what the fix does. I already bet on a horse. I need to see it loose. OR not. If it looks dire, i will shoot it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I may of gotten pinned out... Admittedly my stops were aggressive... 1.1941 was the original one but the smaller stop level was 77. I chose poorly. Still flat Fibre, waiting on something bullish.... Anything, my preference for a trigger would be a push into the 1.0692-1.0674 area and subsequent momo bar out.... Might be the last stand for the bulls for a few hundred points... Although this pullback has already covered a lot of ground fast, can't get caught up in the tape and get too bear-ed up. Event risk is clearly Powell today....
Got a little momo.... and a 4HR close above the zone....But its not great, 15 min doji...

U.S. open loves to set the highs/lows of the day before retracing.... so cant rule out another flush of the lows wether at the open or during powell...
For all you fat asses stressed out trading. Try to improve your health. Its as hard as it seems.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
For all you fat asses stressed out trading. Try to improve your health. Its as hard as it seems. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wzmacu2TgFg
stop yelling at me
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its not looking like "Tuesday takeback day." Lets see what the fix does. I already bet on a horse. I need to see it loose. OR not. If it looks dire, i will shoot it.
I pushed my chips in long off the 15 min doji... 1.06935... same macro target...

whatever happens, it shouldnt hang here too long
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I pushed my chips in long off the 15 min doji... 1.06935... same macro target... whatever happens, it shouldnt hang here too long
equites open in a min.. Dow down 100+ already.. That's not the best look for a eu long. Lots of adr
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} equites open in a min.. Dow down 100+ already.. That's not the best look for a eu long. Lots of adr
Yeah, sometimes it ends up being the best time to buy, when everyone is heading for the doors...

But probably not this time....

At the end of the day we gotta trust the numbers.... Risk/reward long from here is pretty good either direction honestly....
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Got a little momo.... and a 4HR close above the zone....But its not great, 15 min doji... U.S. open loves to set the highs/lows of the day before retracing.... so cant rule out another flush of the lows wether at the open or during powell...
welp, answered that quick....

Waiting on the zone to show the next direction. 1.0692-1.0676 if you tighten up the zone.... waiting for the fake and shake
I shot my horse before stop
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Don96
{quote} second day was enough for me to be somewhat hesitant on longs, all stops tight and moved quickly Look for shorts higher up… if it gets there 1.0681 is about as good as I have round here.
1.0672, took a long 5 above SL below the low

SL @ b.e… small res here just under 1.07… will still look to short 1.0710
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