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The Swamp

Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this is it. so he is helping him and his friends - pumping price higher - they will produce more and prices will make the market ok so it's a short term deal but the get Saudi and Rusia on the table Trump and his friends will need to cut some of the production - so this will either not happen - and nobody is cutting production just bs so they have higher prices to produce more. rally was so big because a lot of people were shorting the market covering just made the biggest rally even or also prices jump higher because also corona is about...
You can't fix stupid. He is a moron, but with daddy's money.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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Quoting DMA Trader
this is it. so he is helping him and his friends - ?
I doubt DT really has a lot of personal friends who are oil producers. He's a New Yorker and most of his friends are other East Coaster oligarchs. (His daughter Ivanka and Chelsea Clinton were good friends at one time, I wonder if they still talk?) But Trump is a fierce partisan and he knows where his political war chest money comes from - from Republicans, of course. And oil producers are probably overwhelmingly Republican. >2/3 of US oil production comes from red States Texas, Oklahoma, and N. Dakota. And you can bet Trump has been hearing it from US congress people from those States and others who are in Oil's pocket. The average break-even oil price for US oil producers is $50/bbl. At $30/bbl oil men were grumbling long and loudly to their Senators - at $20/bbl they were getting ready to throw in the towel.

Problem has been particularly bad for shale oil producers. Their product is relatively light oil that is not needed so much by US onshore refiners. So they export. And have to compete with other light oil on the world market - the cheapest of which is Saudi oil.

Who could have thought bullying the world oil market was so complicated? SA is a major US client State - the rough deal is SA will buy $100's of billions of US military hardware and the USA will support SA militarily and buy their oil. Some of the largest US onshore refineries are jointly owned by the Saudis. They invest heavily in US assets and own millions of acres of US real estate. So who wants to get in the middle of a spat between them and Russia? The Russia-Saudi spat is not about oil production alone, but is mostly about Russia's hegemoniacal intent in the ME, their support for Iran and Syria, etc.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
SA bought $110 billion in 2017 and agreed to buy $350 billion more until 2027.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_U...abia_arms_deal
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
The largest US oil refinery is 100% owned by Saudi Aramco.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-Now-What.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Saudi money is everywhere, often working through a maze of investment banks from other countries....

https://indypendent.org/2018/11/saud...ng-up-america/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
The largest US oil refinery is 100% owned by Saudi Aramco. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-Now-What.html
WOW.... interesting reading sir, from the sounds of it the saudi's have got american oil by the nuts. I must say i always i appreciate your well informed insight in different subject's that i personally know little about, no matter what thread it appears on, green pips sir.
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Problem has been particularly bad for shale oil producers. Their product is relatively light oil that is not needed so much by US onshore refiners. So they export. And have to compete with other light oil on the world market - the cheapest of which is Saudi oil. Who could have thought bullying the world oil market was so complicated? SA is a major US client State - the rough deal is SA will buy $100's of billions of US military hardware and the USA will support SA militarily and buy their oil. Some of the largest US onshore...
Shale sands oil is more a tary type oil. It's more likely to be considered heavier, so is most ME oil. . Many of the older refineries in my area dont want the heavier oil. Because the cat crackers are older and not designed to run it. . In the last 20/40 years some other newer refineries like Marathon, Valerio (Some refineries have added a unit to run heavy oil) have started to process the heavier crap. Years ago Saudis oil was considered sour or heavy. The better lighter oil (less sulphur) came from The Southern region. That's how (louisiana sweet or Pennsylvania sweet meaning lighter with less sulphur) took the name. Many refineries cant run the heavier sour oil. West Tex is lighter than Saudi oil.

At least it has been told to me this way for many decades. That may have changed, maybe they do want the heavier stuff now. But the description of light to heavy remains the same. The heavier oil cost more to refine. Of course many refineries have a threshold and blend oil. They try to mix what they can run to whatever is cheaper.

The Saudis may have cheaper oil. But when transportation and refining cost was considered. Those Southern refineries stuck with domestic oil for decades. Some did convert to the heavier stuff and built new units. But its not a black and white issue. They are not the same comparably. Energy is large cost in refining. T
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting chipsngravey
WOW.... interesting reading sir,
cheers.

Barron has really shot up.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...074412209.html

Trump says he wants to re-open the economy. He says, "The cure can not be worse than the disease." This is a concept that most everyone is thinking about. Regardless of how people feel about Trump, most people will feel this resonate to some extent. At the same time, the itchiness to get back to work is going to coincide in time with the most alarming numbers coming from the 24/7 virus-watch media: the death tolls. There are going to be alarming numbers coming out of NYC, NOLA, Detroit, Atlanta, Miami, etc etc - similar to what has been seen in Spain and Italy. 1,000's of death a day....

What to do? Here in WA, the "stay-at-home" program is now in place til May 4. My work life hasn't changed much. Things I am involved with take years to plan and execute, are considered essential, have not shut down. I drive to my office most days, do work over the internet, etc - same as normal. I have noticed in the last week though - more traffic on the roads. People are out and about because they are getting stir crazy. Many are going to work again. (The list of "essential businesses" in WA state is 15 pages long - essential businesses not required to close.)

I am pretty impressed that people have done the social distancing thing as much as they have, so far. But there is only so much of it that people will submit to, regardless of the implications. That's just human nature.

Hopefully, the next month will see a flattening of the "new infections" curve, maybe a turndown. Maybe there will be new fast test kits made more widely available. Maybe new therapies will be available. All of us are living through a gigantic experiment in social engineering...I can think of lots of unintended consequences...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting chipsngravey
{quote} WOW.... interesting reading sir, from the sounds of it the saudi's have got american oil by the nuts. I must say i always i appreciate your well informed insight in different subject's that i personally know little about, no matter what thread it appears on, green pips sir.
Oil is just sunlight energy stored. If the middleman is bypassed. You get the same energy. It's not rocket science. We have been taught our lifetime to value oil. Till some little child points a finger and says "the king isn't wearing any clothes". I hope Musk can do that. Because than the U.S. can stay out of ME wars. Russia and the Saudis won't influence the world so much. Neither will these politicians oil paid for.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I doubt DT really has a lot of personal friends who are oil producers. He's a New Yorker and most of his friends are other East Coaster oligarchs. (His daughter Ivanka and Chelsea Clinton were good friends at one time, I wonder if they still talk?) But Trump is a fierce partisan and he knows where his political war chest money comes from - from Republicans, of course. And oil producers are probably overwhelmingly Republican. >2/3 of US oil production comes from red States Texas, Oklahoma, and N. Dakota. And you can bet Trump has been hearing...
Republicans and Texas friends or donors still going into scenario 1 looking for his friends

About Saudi's buying a lot of stuff and owning them in US. this complicates thesis. that can mean also Saudis are Trump Friends and will look for their interest. and yes old relation here, Middle East and so on.
If you remember he just call the New Prince - his Friend

Now Twitter it's just a place for Propaganda.

But conclusion I am trying to get is is BS talk to pump up the price or we can have a deal between USA + Saudis + ( rest of OPEC) + Russia
if history is a guide with Super Trade of the Century with China there were months until a deal so he would just pop up the Stock Market
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting gatorinla
In the last 20/40 years some other newer refineries like Marathon, Valerio (Some refineries have added a unit to run heavy oil) have started to process the heavier crap. Years ago Saudis oil was considered sour or heavy. The better lighter oil (less sulphur) came from The Southern region. That's how (louisiana sweet or Pennsylvania sweet meaning lighter with less sulphur) took the name. Many refineries cant run the heavier sour oil. West Tex is lighter than Saudi oil. At least it has been told to me this way for many decades. That may have changed,...
I'm not an oil trader really and not in the biz at all. I know some petro engineers and geologists....it's a big and complicated subject. I think generally US refiners have moved to heavier stocks because they were cheaper and readily available from various sources in this hemisphere (Canada, Venezuela, etc).

There was considerable over-supply before corona. Now there is sudden and massive under-demand. There will have to be production cuts. It just remains to be seen who cuts and by how much. Perhaps the coming week will see some agreements hashed out between the big 3.

I still think the stage is being set for a large oil price increase. Basically a reversal of the above: the lack of demand will be met by production cuts. Then demand will resume faster than supply can catch up. Big question is how to time a trade to catch that, And, of course, that scenario might not play out at all. Demand might be many months or years in coming back.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Oil is just sunlight energy stored. If the middleman is bypassed. You get the same energy. It's not rocket science. We have been taught our lifetime to value oil. Till some little child points a finger and says "the king isn't wearing any clothes". I hope Musk can do that. Because than the U.S. can stay out of ME wars. Russia and the Saudis won't influence the world so much. Neither will these politicians oil paid for.
It's complicated with Musk - because he is not Cesar friend yet. He has a hard time kissing a$$ so he wasn't even mention for providing support for Hospital. But Mike Pillow was... so And if we get to TSLA empire. he got some support now from China and also Saudi invested in them but then got out before the all time highs in TSLA ... maybe they are coming in again. Musk can and will be a game changer but not sure how Trump sees him, relation went down after Trump exit Paris agreement and after that no mention. I think if it is to chose a way Trump will go to Oil friends rather then Musk.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm not an oil trader really and not in the biz at all. I know some petro engineers and geologists....it's a big and complicated subject. I think generally US refiners have moved to heavier stocks because they were cheaper and readily available from various sources in this hemisphere (Canada, Venezuela, etc). There was considerable over-supply before corona. Now there is sudden and massive under-demand. There will have to be production cuts. It just remains to be seen who cuts and by how much. Perhaps the coming week will see some agreements...
I lived through the 1980ies depression here. I think it will be worse than people think. I also dont think it will be as bad as it could be, if government stays out.

Someone borrows 1 billion $ to drill oil sands. Oh well he couldn't pay the bill. He and the investors go bust. Why should we bail them out?

A new group of investors will come in for .10 cent on the dollar. As the price of oil rises. They dont need the 40$ per barrel to break even. They can pump oil fo 10$ and make money. Let the cycle work. oil will seek its price level. The Russians and Saudis lose power each time. If we let the free market work.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting The Fool
{quote}cheers. Barron has really shot up. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...074412209.html Trump says he wants to re-open the economy. He says, "The cure can not be worse than the disease." This is a concept that most everyone is thinking about. Regardless of how people feel about Trump, most people will feel this resonate to some extent. At the same time, the itchiness to get back to work is going to coincide in time with the most alarming numbers coming from the 24/7 virus-watch media: the death tolls. There...
imho we are all doing exactly what you say for instance I didn't get out but my wife was out this weekend and said the same thing on traffic even if measures are crazy here, but we will just get to a point where we will all force getting out, we will be as I've said more into heard mentality/immunity. but we gave doctors and hospitals and researchers some time to come up with something. but this thing is very contagious it's just impossible to have it contained. Even if we go with economy stopped so much at one point it will again go to heard immunity you cannot just shut things down for 12-16 months to get a vaccine and then another 3 months until everyone has it. so little by little everyone is forcing in one way or the other.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It's complicated with Musk - because he is not Cesar friend yet. He has a hard time kissing a$$ so he wasn't even mention for providing support for Hospital. But Mike Pillow was... so And if we get to TSLA empire. he got some support now from China and also Saudi invested in them but then got out before the all time highs in TSLA ... maybe they are coming in again. Musk can and will be a game changer but not sure how Trump sees him, relation went down after Trump exit Paris agreement and after that no mention. I think if it is to chose a...
When we are driving electric race cars.. We save on war cost.

Besides that the true cost of a barrel of Saudis oil to the u.s. is likely 1000 pb, maybe 2000$. We subsidised oil with treasure/blood in war. We got naval fleets gauding sand. Let them eat the sand and drink the oil. We are programed to believe a bunch of garbage.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm not an oil trader really and not in the biz at all. I know some petro engineers and geologists....it's a big and complicated subject. I think generally US refiners have moved to heavier stocks because they were cheaper and readily available from various sources in this hemisphere (Canada, Venezuela, etc). There was considerable over-supply before corona. Now there is sudden and massive under-demand. There will have to be production cuts. It just remains to be seen who cuts and by how much. Perhaps the coming week will see some agreements...
this is what i see also that's why it's very important to see if there will be a deal to cut (because this is just ruin the US strategy of market share) so maybe he is just pumping. But I think cutting production now is very risky for US, from all this discussion I think he is again bluffing until demands come back - he doesn't want huge increase in price just keeping him and his friends on a small loss break even
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imho we are all doing exactly what you say for instance I didn't get out but my wife was out this weekend and said the same thing on traffic even if measures are crazy here, but we will just get to a point where we will all force getting out, we will be as I've said more into heard mentality/immunity. but we gave doctors and hospitals and researchers some time to come up with something. but this thing is very contagious it's just impossible to have it contained. Even if we go with economy stopped so much at one point it will again go to...
The issue dates back to "Sir James Goldsmith" where GPD and indexes are more important than people..
instead of the economy being used for the people they are used to create profits..
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Quoting gatorinla
{quote} When we are driving electric race cars.. We save on war cost.
Oil lobby power clearly has diminish from 20 years ago. but as we seen this week there is still a lot of power.
Incompetence or interest can stop a nation progress. also corruption. So even if everything makes sense on the short term it's still not easy
LIke for example how come you can grill so easy on Zuckerberg or Google or others on technology and tell them to testify and nobody from Airlines or Oil.

we still need time, same thing with Elon
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting DMA Trader
But I think cutting production now is very risky for US
....many US producers are operating at a loss for many months, burning through cash. If they are not pumping, they're dying. If they have to shut in wells, that's an expense. They are spending money to keep people on, etc etc. If we see continued low oil prices, surely more of the weak hands will go like Whiting (Ch. 11) or worse, Ch. 13. Everyone is expecting those shoes to start dropping, any day.

But if smaller producers go belly up, that will only add to the undersupply that is cooking and a price spike when demand starts coming back.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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