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Guaranteed win?

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Nov 27, 2015 6:31pm Nov 27, 2015 6:31pm
  •  roel13
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
Think grid.

Theory: with a spread of 0 (and tradecost of 0), if we trade at varied levels (i.e. think two grids intermixed, or think multiple orders allowed), with varied lot sizes, and hedging is allowed, then it is never possible to ensure a profit - however small - provided the number of trades are limited/is finite (i.e. rules out mGrid/Williama).

True or false?
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
  • Post #2
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  • Nov 29, 2015 11:26pm Nov 29, 2015 11:26pm
  •  roel13
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
With near 100% confidence: for non-varied levels, the statement is true. One can achieve a 75%, even a 81.25% win rate, but the big losses will offset the big winners if enough trades are made.

How about varied levels?
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Dec 18, 2015 8:41pm Dec 18, 2015 8:41pm
  •  roel13
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
With 100% confidence now: for non-varied levels, the statement is true. One can achieve a good win rate %, but the big losses seen (less often) will offset the big winners (more often) if enough trades are made. The end result always hovers towards 0.
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Dec 22, 2015 12:31am Dec 22, 2015 12:31am
  •  roel13
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
Hum. Maybe it is possible.
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Last Post: Dec 25, 2015 3:54pm Dec 25, 2015 3:54pm
  •  jmmn
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Learning while making money... | 528 Posts
So, it is better not to trade... Right?
 
 
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