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Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis | EURUSD | 5 of January

The EURUSD has dropped heavily after surging up to 1.0950 zone. USD went strong in new 2016 and we can see a sell off in USD correlated pairs. Technically we have 2 POC's to watch for.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | CRB Commodity Index | 5 of January

In this article we will look at CRB Commodity Index. This is important market to track for overall direction on commodities. What we see on the weekly chart below is a five wave of decline within wave C which means that current weakness can be coming to an end.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 5 of January

Yesterday’s disappointing drop in the US manufacturing index is unhappy but not fatal. As one analyst told Market News, manufacturing is not the key driver of the US economy. What’s more worrisome is the drop in employment that may affect Friday’s payrolls. Market News has a forecast range of 180,000 to 225,000 with a median of 205,000.... (Read more)

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Prospects for the euro zone in 2016

The economy of the developed countries shows growth in the last seven years. Market participants respectively worried about possible shocks of the economy in China, as well as acceptable recession in the US. It is still approaching the threat of increased geopolitical risks.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 6 of January

One of our yesterday's assumption is justified. Despite the positive data from euro zone, traders continued to buy the dollar. It should be added that the market last year was lower than this. Employment rates in the euro area were able to release better than expected. In Spain, the number of unemployed decreased by 55.8 ths against the expected 52.6 ths.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis | AUDJPY | 6 of January

As I have stated many times in the articles and analysis the AUDJPY is heavily correlated with Chinese data. Bad Chinese data and equities drop. AJ drops too. It is called a positive correlation.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | GOLD / USDCAD | 6 of January

Gold is trading higher, now finally took out the high of a former wave iii which has been expected. We see price now in a black wave v that can still touch 1088 from start of December before price turns down for a new correction. We think that this new corrective set-back will occur by the end of the week.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 6 of January

In normal times, one of the key data points is the PMI, used in recent years as a proxy for the robustness of growth. This is an improvement over earlier years when indirect data was the obsession, especially money supply and inflation (and before that, trade). From those you have to deduce business confidence and growth, whereas PMI’s are more direct.... (Read more)

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New shocks in the oil market

The tense political situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two OPEC members, creates a strong pressure on the oil market. Another time such news would cause a rise in oil prices, but as it turns out it is not so simple. A little chaos in the market illustrates how the oil market can be unpredictable.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis | USDJPY | 7 of January

The USDJPY has weakened making a bearish zig-zag and the weakness followed the World Bank report which cut Japan 2016 forecast growth. Against JPY, USD is losing the battle which I see as a risk off sentiment.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | EURAUD / USDCAD | 7 of January

AUD and GBP are very weak today while EUR is doing quite well against the USD which makes some strong move up on EURAUD and even other EUR crosses. EURAUD is trading nicely to the upside in impulsive fashion.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 8 of January

Yesterday there was published a block of macroeconomic data from Europe, which turned out to be quite positive. However, investors took them insufficiently optimistic. Retail sales in Germany showed an increase by 0.2% m/m against the expected growth by 0.5% m/m. German industrial orders in November rose by 1.5% m/m against the background of projected growth by 0.1% m/m.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 7 of January

As we wrote yesterday, market turmoil can trump boring old economics any time. The additional drop in the yuan today and the accompanying stock market drop and trading halt are becoming a crisis. The fast-and-easy interpretation is that the Chinese economy is slowing so much that assets are overpriced.... (Read more)

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Wall Street hopes for good data on the non-farms

Investors who have suffered from the destruction of the stock market this week, hope that Friday's employment data will come out better than expected and will be able to slow down the collapse. The number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in December could reach 202 ths against 211 last month.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 8 of January

Some say today’s payrolls is less important given the China story and others say it’s more important. The “more important” crowd, including the WSJ, say good numbers today would imply the US recovery is robust enough to lead the world out of recession. But aside from psychological effects, which are admittedly not trivial, the mechanism for “leading” the world would have to be trade.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 11 of January

Let's omit the significance of Friday's economic data, then we can say that over the last week exchange instruments purchased crisis correlation. The US dollar strengthens its position in relation to all currencies against the background of the stock market crash.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | Crude OIL / USDCAD | 11 of January

OIL fell even lower last week touching briefly 32 USD per barrel. We are tracking here US Light Crude price. Current structure suggest even further fall close or below 30 USD mark. On larger time frame we will start to look soon on a reversal on this commodity since we can count almost a 5 wave fall from last highs back a few years in time.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Daily Analysis | AUDUSD | 11 of January

The AUDUSD managed to recover after a big drop caused by equities, Chinese market and Yuan devaluation. As we know, Chinese markets correlate to AUD and a possible loss of competitiveness in Chinese export market is also negative for AUD.... (Read more)

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China's financial system - There is no reason for concern

Last week, the chief currency regulator of China said that the national financial system "generally stable and goes the right course." The Central Bank of China released such a statement, in order to try to calm the international markets, due to the fact that investors are going to repeat the market collapse at the beginning of last week.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 11 of January

The first week of the year was studded with emotion, chiefly fear, like cloves on a ham. Within hours of the splendid payrolls report, US stock indices were falling again. This week begins the earnings season, with Alcoa the usual starter name.... (Read more)