Italians Trade It Better

So, here we are again!

i'd like to share some of my improvements (both in english and trading ) with you all guys!


After a lot of practice i finally feel i have a real clue, because not only i know what to do, but i also have a clear idea of what makes us gain o what doesn't, and why i kept struggling with fluctuating results. Most of this game is about mental approach, i came to a deep understanding of this.

Obviously i keep learning day by day, but a large part of the job is done.

I'm confident, disciplined, with thousands of hours of study on my back. I'm ready.

Stay tuned, feel free to post whatever stuff can be productive. I use a Price Action approach but other methodolodies are welcome.

Flamers advice: you won't get to post twice.

AUDUSD.

The Weekly chart clearly shows a bearish momentum (blu line is not a trendline or a channel, it's just to label the swing with no technical purpose), last impulse ios just about to reach the 0.7599 support area.

Now, i've noticed that whenever the price is near to a clear support or resistance zone, it's very unlikely to be rejected with a strong move before even touching the area. So, most of the time it will either get into the zone or show a drecrease in volatility, with at least a couple of small candles before any move in the opposite direction.

Again, this is a tendecy, not an ever-working rule. So, we can assume AUDUSD will give us the chance to sell the pair with good possibilities to hit a target or close at BE.



D1 is not giving us much more informations. Strong impulse, that's it. I like to keep my charts and analisys simple as possible.



The 4 hours chart is slightly more interesting, as we can see every swing of the last move. Virtually all my entries are based on open or close levels of previous candles: the larger the candle, the better (but i prefer those with a big body). In this case, i like the one i picked on the chart.



Despite i like to look at the bigger picture when i do my homeworks, most of the time H1 chart is the one i use for my operative decisions. Is the faster TF i use, i hardly ever go down to the 15M chart. I always give a big importance to the last 1-2 days, higher TFs are for momentum and important levels detecting.

So, what did the price do yesterday?

First of all, look at the Open price (it is always a smart decision to check it): after the market fell down with the first bearish swing, it tried to break it again more than just once, but it was not able to do anything more than a double high before closing near the low of the candle: it's a very good signal for us. We look for short trades today, we can use red area for aggressive entries and the green one if more conservative. I'd like to see a fast return of price on the first green line to sell it.



Be aware of the 14:30 (GMT+2) news. We can expect great volatility, and i like to stay flat in that situations.

PAY ATTENTION TO VOLATILITY

EURUSD, D1 chart.

Not many traders use to check volatility regularly, and this is a huge paradox since it gives us precious informations.


One of the way i like to look at volatility, is by using a 1-period ATR, especially on Daily charts.

There always are 2 areas (or levels, if you will) volatility is most reactive to. One for explosions, the other for compressions.

Check this chart: Daily candle to close in less than 4 hours (GMT+1), very low volatility expected till session's end. Daily range is now about 37 pips, much less than previous days and totally in a volatility zone the market doesn't like to stay in for more than a day.

Look how this pair reacted to that area in the past months: basing on this, we can expect a huge increase in volatility within the next two Daily candles. It's a great opportunity for trades with high R:R, check on lower TFs for support and resistance.

EURUSD broke daily low, there is space to reach 1.1580

I'd like to say something about money management, 'cause it's clear lots of us still think they need superb winning rate % or RR ratio in order to succeed in trading, but that's just not true.

Look, money management is just an expression to refer to countless strategy to handle our money, be aware of it and find the method which fits you the best.

I like to trade with a "Set&Forget" approach: I do my homeworks, pick an entry and decide stop and target levels with a risk:reward of 1:1,10, then i wait for price to hit one of those. Definitely not the best way to handle a trade, but it makes me feel very confident and comfortable, good enough at this moment.

The following chart proves that in order to achieve great results:

1) You don't need thousands of trades;
2) You don't need to trade with at least a 1:2 risk reward ratio, as lots of books tell us;
3) You don't need a 70%+ winning percentage.



I suggest you to take a look at this chart every time you get too anxious for trading.

EURUSD

Today's candle was about the third / fourth smallest in the entire 2017. After each of those little bar, price reacted very well with an increase in volatility. So, we can expect the same thing to happen tomorrow.

I'll be looking a short trade, 'till price prove the opposite.





E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Same bullish trend, over and over again. Kind of boring

I'll be looking for opportunities to buy but I want to see price action in the morning before picking any level.

Still here, right on my path

EURUSD

D1 Tourtle Soup on Monthly support.

My view was already long, but this is an interesting pattern.

BE

Price missed my order for 0.7 pips. I just removed it.

EDIT

EU stop loss moved to BE.

Sold GBPUSD, SL at around previous week's high.

GBPUSD target was reached (kind of fast), EU short still running, stop at BE.

AUDUSD: there is a good chance it still has to mark June's high.

GBPJPY Pay attention to the labeled area. Short outlook, this is an interesting zone to monitor.

GBPJPY Sell order place at 137.732, TP today's low, SL week high. RR 1,10.