Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

The asian range today was quite large. I haven't done anything today (just looking) but going short at the end of the Tokyo session at 11:00 my chart time would have gotten me into trouble it seems as it now already retraced all the way up again to hit the higher end. It broke out short for about 2 Pips.

The BillyBar broke to the low for Billy's 1%, 1 Pip or even the +5 Pips. However without knowing how to fix in advance, risking a 19%, 19 Pips (size of the range high/low) it's stupid in my eyes. I would then need a plan how to recover these 19 Pips i potentially would have lost on price retracing there. Locking in the trade with a counter order doesn't make it any better. You are then still down -19 Pips

Anyhow. Have a good day.

Good start to the 500's line

t 06-42
Cable, yesterdays daily range = 123. Todays 00-00 4 hour bar range =42.

Keeping your eye on the daily range is important, especially if you trade my style.
AND 00-00 4 hour range, most definitely important.
Trade Well All.
t 06-47

t 06-47 00-00 4 hour bar range. The High has broken and we have a slight dip. Just saying.
t 06-48

t 07-37 a bit more info.

the 5 day average daily range = 137.
we have my modest 70 range and so far today the range is 60.
Sooooooooooooo today we should get at least another 10 or if we use the average daily range it is possible we can get another 70+.
Dont forget it is an average, th at is why i stick to a shorted range ie
t 07- 40.

t 08-00
Cable 07-45 15 min bar break. high broke yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay i got my 1% and a bit more,in a matter of seconds.
i want the low now.
t 08-02

t 08-14
Cable 1 minute chart just copied.
X = the 07-45 15 min range.
1 = high broke for ????
2 = we had a retrace back into the 07-45 range, we could of gone long again . I didnt as i have got my shere.

My bias is long , that black line with arrow is the high of the 00-00 4 hour bar range.

I will short if price drops even with a long bias. otherwise my day is done. lol.
Trade Well all.
t 08-18

oops, ill add chart
t 08-19

t 08-20
The 08-00 15 min bar. the high broke for enough ,but i didnt touch it.
lol

Asian Session. we have many methods online on how to trade the Asian session, using just a breakout or confirming candle for entry.
Most methods agree that the range should be narrow, we need that consolidation to break from.

as you all know i go off the 00-00n 4 hour range..

I found a video of a guy last night again after searching for more information on the london breakout approach and if/how it could be become profitable to me an. Now according to his quite extensive backtests it doesn't looks like a consistent profitable idea. However, it reflects my own tests so far that no matter what I try, none of it is so far working.



Like said. "Fixing" a first failed entry for god sake to come out with my expected x% at the end of every day won't help as long as i don't even know in advance how my next trigger will look like and what i will have to put on risk every day.

In my earlier message i said last time the BillyBar would have been -19% in range (according to the 1% a Pip logic). So if you would set your counter order / stop loss at the opposite end of such range and face a retrace/fail you will be effectively down -19% right? So the real question is how you then going to make up for that. You will then need to make a +19% (or +19 Pips) just to balance 1 failed entry. For the second, third or what ever next entry following the failed one you will have to risk x% again.

So if you then don't even have any kind of daily limits in place what holds you back from having two or three more failed entries at such intense risk % you would then need to risk to fix it. Don't forget you will have to then target at least +19 Pips for the rest of the day and making another +1 Pip winner won't help to make up for such earlier loss unless you would drastically increase your position size on the next trade/s.

Anyhow i think i used to have said so already quite a few times in the past. I respect i won't see an answer to it.

May i ask why you use the 00 - 04 range for your "bias" and how it affects you on entering on a 07:45 bar or 08:00 range break entry? Why leaving out the last 4 hours of the day before the london open to define such range?

Time: 09:04 UK time. The official Tokyo session just ended and we have a low and a high. Price now already touched the high. Toughing the high you will go long, touching the low you will go short, that's the easy part. What you will risk, what you will target and if that is leading to a consistent x% win at the end of each month doing the same thing every day is on a complete different picture.

Both the 07:45 as well as the 08:00 range broke for quite a few Pips without much retrace.

Good luck to you all. I am out for today as i still have no clue what to do lol.

Can anyone tell me why i am getting a different high price when i am looking on a MT4 M15 chart instead of M5?

I already wondered because on M15 the yellow session box indictor (Tokyo) doesn't show price breakout out of the range while scaling down to M5 it then looks like price broke out of the range after it closed at 11:00 my chart/broker time.

I then looked at the data window and it is indeed giving different prices? Shouldn't high/low prices stay the same no matter the time frame looked at?

M15

M5

t t 10-36
Example, we will trade off a Cable 3 hour candle. 00-00 to 03-00 range.

We have a High and Low Range. the range is 30.
Yesterdays daily range =123 and the average daily range =137 .

ideally we want the high OR low to break and keep moving that direction for lots and lots of pips.

example, if we short and it fails we will have the adr - 30 pips fail to fix = 107 pip potential gain.
If we use my 70 pip modest range. that will be 70 - 30 fail = possible 40 pip profit. IT'S ALL MATHS..
Fair enough price might turn again and it does. But it is all fixable.

edit at 10-46 this is what happened, high broke . How many pips we after is up to the individual.

T 10-58
daily range so far today = 73..... it could well pop up to 12250, or drop down to 12090 just going off the adr


edit t 11-45 the above figures are not 100%, but i am not changing it. lets see what happens.

Good to see some things never change...Still banging head against wall expecting something to drop from the sky.....

Hi Bud, i hope you are well.
erm erm yes, you are right. lol
Trade Well.

t 13-44 so nothing has happened lol. typical.
But it will, if not today. we will go through the same procedure tomorrow. Price will move.

it did lol

just a quick one.
Cable 4 hour chart
1 = 12250
2 = 12090
that arrow is where i posted the original post at 10-58 when price was approx 12170.

This post is not about making lots of pips.
BUT fixing a failed trade. at time of posting we had the 00-00 4 hour bar range high to go long. and the 08-00 15 minute bar to go either high or low (or both).

If either long had failed, this is where the average daily range comes into play.

it was a bit late in the day for my 70 range, as id already traded yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
Trade well all and we shall do it all again tomorrow.

t 06-57
Cable, yesterdays Daily Range =107. the average daily range = 126 and todays 00-00 4 hour bar range =32.

So far nothing has happened.
Trade well all.
t 06-59

t 07-22
Cable 4 hour chart just copied.
A = the 00-00 4 hour bar range =32.
1= the the 00-00 low has just broken. Its up to you to decide for many pips.
BUT , should price move back up to break high , it could go to =2. That is my modest 70 range.

This is an example before anything happens.. we can get retrace again but we know what we have to play with.
Also,we should be adding the average daily range marker =126.
t 07-26