Trend Lines and Analysis

In this journal I hope to be able to record my trades when I can for the simple fact of being able review my history. I have called this "Trend lines and Analysis" because I mainly deal with TL BO's. I have a scope of trading systems however and wont limit myself to just one type of analysis.

I trade mostly from the hourly charts but break it down to the 5m and even 1m when I spot a potential trade. I am looking for 20 pip BO's risking roughly 5-10 pips at a time. Depending on the BO I can increase my TP if I see potential further movement but this has also got me in trouble in the past and it is part of my strategy that I am looking to analyse here. I watch all majors and a few of the minors but importantly I try to stay away from highly volatile pairs eg GJ unless I can justify a low risk trade. I have found the best time to trade is the Asian session but often stare at the charts for many more hours.

I have no specific rules about drawing my TL's except to say that I am looking for where the price action stops most commonly whether that be the wick or body of the candle. In drawing the TL's, often a pattern becomes apparent which is a big part of my strategy. Common patterns I use are the Wedge, Flag, Cup & Handle, Head & Shoulder, etc.

To identify trade set ups I also use the Trading Made Simple template ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622 ) on hourly charts. I am looking for specific setups with the TDI cross over that's not over bought/sold in the direction to trade and also that isn't running into S/R zones. I will provide an example later. If I identify a TMS trade setup I will go to my normal charts and look for a possible low risk trade.

I am trying to find consistency in my method because I am trying for high risk (leveraged) gains. Each trade I am risking roughly 10% of the current balance. I traded consistently for around 10 weeks at the end of last year but the first 6 weeks I was gaining then losing. I finally figured that it was the highly volatile pairs that were getting me into trouble (GJ, Gold etc) and after I realised this my account grew 1400%. However leading up to the Christmas break I began taking losses so stopped trading believing it was "just the market". I have started trading again this week but am still dismally taking losses. I am beginning to think that a part of the strategy that I was employing during my success is being left out. Perhaps I was using more correlation or maybe I am trading the st charts too much atm or maybe it is just a difficult time to trade being the new year and the NFP week (I have always struggled on this week of the month).

Anyhows, I will be posting my charts when I can but probably wont give too much description in my posts due to time issues unless it is needed. They should be pretty self explanatory. If anyone happens across any of my posts please feel free to ask questions or comment. If people want to post their own TL's on any currency it is always welcome- I often have the same TL on two of the same charts but is a little different in comparison. All angles are good.




Edit (19.2.15): I have started using Harmonics and more awareness of Order Flow with my trading.



Edit (22/9/2015): I am using larger pip R:R, with 2:1 R:R for this strategy: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=557430 Starting from here:http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8495898

An example of the TMS setup. Not overbought, TDI cross over and a possible break above consolidation.

Break down on normal chart. There is a H&S setup.

Looking for low risk entry on 5m..... USD ADP news release approaching along with other high impact news, probably wont enter.

In. Risk 8 pips

Would have hit TP but I jumped out 10 seconds before release with +11. The ADP was positive as I suspected it might be due to the TA but I'm not a gambling man.

Break of support. Risk 7.5

Moved stop to BE due to break in falling TL.

Out +1.2. I don't always move to BE but AU is approaching lt LL's so there is potential for a spike up.

My support (now resistance) horizontal line held and PA would have hit my TP. Profit would have been nice but not too worried as there was a bit of uncertainty. Just noting for future analysis.

NU broke support. A bit over sold but should be continuation of trend. Risk 7.8

Freaking BS trade that turned out to be. USD decided to turn and become bearish on all pairs.... -8 pips. I might of seen it if I had of used fibo, gah what a crappy year so far. Done for day, will sleep it off.

Watching for the break on the st charts of rising TL with the hourly pin bar. Am quite cautious on this trade however due to positive AUD news and also support region close by, will cover quickly if traded.

In Risk: 8.1. EU has broken support slightly but yet to be confirmed, maybe a FO.

Faked out. This is where I have struggled from just before Christmas, the pullbacks are vicious with harder moves than the BO itself when quite often it returns back into the direction of the BO. I thought initially it had to do with low liquidity and stop hunting but perhaps the market has changed and I may need to revise my system.
The trade didn't even it make it to the support region before turning again...

Missed trade. Was about to hit the button but it moved too fast and is now too much risk to enter. I may enter on a pullback.

I decided to enter anyway and use just under the support level as the SL (I normally like to use one level below support to give room to move).
Risk: 6

Watching the AU 4hr falling TL. If the NU trade survives this pullback will be waiting for market response if/when it touches.