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Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

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Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Another little tiny demand level on the pound for a nice 5:1 TP. It triggered this morning, hit its 5:1 take profit. I didn't want to be greedy.
Again, imbalance is not great, refer to my last posts to understand why I take this of trade. I love big imbalances, I will be there as well if I can. We'll cover this on tomorrow's webinar.

In the last 2 days, the new H1 account trading it's been like 20%, which is great! Some losses, but happy with the results. Results is what matter at the end of the day. Upper green supply area was used-up, respecting trendline, there I go.

I also closed my AUDUSD H1 long triggered yesterday, almost 6:1.

I'm done for today! Will disconnect for some hours, some beach and friends. Will look at the markets at the end of the day and answer some of your questions later.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting panoramia
Another little tiny demand level on the pound for a nice 5:1 TP. It triggered this morning, hit its 5:1 take profit. I didn't want to be greedy. Again, imbalance is not great, refer to my last posts to understand why I take this of trade. I love big imbalances, I will be there as well if I can. We'll cover this on tomorrow's webinar. In the last 2 days, the new H1 account trading it's been like 20%, which is great! Some losses, but happy with the results. Results is what matter at the end of the day. Upper green supply area was used-up, respecting...

well done alfonso ! we are all with you.
Hi Alfonso,

since you have 2 different accounts for swing trading (entry on H4) and intraday trading (entry on H1), how do you synchronize your templates with the s+d zones? Or do you draw them only in one account and only use the second account for entering trades?
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi Alfonso, since you have 2 different accounts for swing trading (entry on H4) and intraday trading (entry on H1), how do you synchronize your templates with the s+d zones? Or do you draw them only in one account and only use the second account for entering trades?
I do have a VPS. I use google drive to synchronize folders between my local MT and my VPS. When I choose to load templates on my VPS, the default folder will be my Google Drive shared templates folder which is connected to my local MT, so I will always load the latest template, will do my analysis once on one account, load it on both accounts and trade it. I am building an objects cloner, so whatever lines, rectangles or anything I draw on my local MT will be drawn on my VPS, so no need to load any templates! That will help me a lot!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Excellent solution!
Alfonso,

I am in the gold trade. Did you enter?

And on my chart, that gold speedbump doesn't exist, so I'm now using a second client from an American broker to double check my charts.
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, I am in the gold trade. Did you enter? And on my chart, that gold speedbump doesn't exist, so I'm now using a second client from an American broker to double check my charts.
No, I can't enter gold. Mentioned it earlier when replying to you. My EA is not working well on metals and indexes and it f*** me up a few times trippling the risk, etc. So I am working on a solution before I trade metals and indexes!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting panoramia
{quote} No, I can't enter gold. Mentioned it earlier when replying to you. My EA is not working well on metals and indexes and it f*** me up a few times trippling the risk, etc. So I am working on a solution before I trade metals and indexes! Alfonso
Oh I see.


Here is my chart on Nikkei225. I know you can't trade it, but I am wondering If I should enter on this retrace. We are high in the curve, but we have not touched daily demand yet.



Daily:

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1h:


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Entry on demand at 13875?
GBPCHF entry long at 1.457 demand?

We are high in the daily curve, but have not touched daily supply yet.


1H :



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Daily:

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My EURCAD hit TP at 3,3:1.
USD high impact trade balance soon. Wonder if I should get out of my gold trade?
Quoting Axlz
GBPCHF entry long at 1.457 demand? We are high in the daily curve, but have not touched daily supply yet. 1H : {image} Daily: {image}
Hi Axlz,

Ask yourself if taking a long trade high on the curve is the best trade you cab find.

best regards
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Hi Axlz, Ask yourself if taking a long trade high on the curve is the best trade you cab find. best regards
You're right.

And I exited my gold trade. Trade balance news for USD coming out soon.
Quoting panoramia
Another little tiny demand level on the pound for a nice 5:1 TP. It triggered this morning, hit its 5:1 take profit. I didn't want to be greedy. Again, imbalance is not great, refer to my last posts to understand why I take this of trade. I love big imbalances, I will be there as well if I can. We'll cover this on tomorrow's webinar. In the last 2 days, the new H1 account trading it's been like 20%, which is great! Some losses, but happy with the results. Results is what matter at the end of the day. Upper green supply area was used-up, respecting...
Alfonso,

Did that green supply zone though not fresh right overhead not concern you? Or did you look at the zone as being cleared to at least the highest red fractal?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
Quoting pres78
{quote} Alfonso, Did that green supply zone though not fresh right overhead not concern you? Or did you look at the zone as being cleared to at least the highest red fractal?
I'd also like to know this.

If i remember correctly, Alfonso used to say that when a candle wick went through a portion of the zone, he did not consider that portion valid anymore.
My take on that TP placing on GBPUSD:

The original and fresh D1 demand is in control (though not fresh anymore due to first bounce) vs. a H1 supply with the 4th retracement (so pretty much used up already). Fresh and original H1 supply above it plus last week's high acting as resistance, TP below resistance seems logical.
Does anyone know whether daily speedbumps are valid supply/demand as extremes?
Quoting Axlz
Does anyone know whether daily speedbumps are valid supply/demand as extremes?
Axlz,

It has been mentioned on numerous occasions and is in Post 1 on Page 1. Please read and re-read and make notes. It's the best way to learn rather than asking others to answer for you. If you do get stuck after doing this then we will certainly help you.
If you act surprised, then you probably missed something
Quoting outapips
{quote} Axlz, It has been mentioned on numerous occasions and is in Post 1 on Page 1. Please read and re-read and make notes. It's the best way to learn rather than asking others to answer for you. If you do get stuck after doing this then we will certainly help you.
I have been searching the thread for the answer, and looking at Pictures from Alfonso's posts. I can't find a definitive yes or no.

He has a picture on post 1, where he marks daily supply in control, but that is in the context of daily/weekly charts.

I want to know for sure, whether or not only basings count as valid supply/demand in extremes (D1 chart, taking entries on H1), or speedbumps count too.

This is because I often see D1 speedbumps fail, as they are weak countertrend, but I sometimes see them make price bounce, as we currently are seeing on EURCAD.


EDIT: Nevermind. I found a post explaining the answer. They do not have high probability. Only valleys/peaks.
I put my long order on second speedbump on gold. First dont look like a speedbump in my chart because of brokers difference. Also, h1 trendline wasn't broken yet for me. Price almost hit my sl. Let's see what happens.
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