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Quoting tashkent
{quote} you may also want to check this one: {image}
Important RBA event tomorrow.. all will surely move to some extent.
I would love though if there is least talk of any rate cuts (or rate cut as such..very less likely) and least dovish comments too...Wud love to see the aussie fly and shock the market...
bcoz whatever i read around ..peeps are just too short commodities and associated CCY's (thanks to multiyear low commodity index) and that wud be perfect for a good squeeze (temporary or kinda permanent (for some time)). Anyhow major movements/directional changes/continuations across the board.... gonna happen around december mid only..have to WaitnWatch)



Could have minted more on Kiwi (or better aussie longs)..was waiting for a minor retrace which didnt come.. Lovely Daily Candles till now (and ofc lets see how MN TF candles end up)
Bears are indeed feeling the ugliness today
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  • Post #202
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:08pm Nov 30, 2015 11:58am | Edited at 12:08pm
AUDUSD

Just a quick note..esp for AUSSIE BULLS
- On H4 TF, Typical & perfect bearish H&S forming (right shoulder can be in formation right now). Neck line around @ 7160's
Any break/movement will happen around RBA rate statement only IMO (currently shd consolidate only..after this current nice upmove)
- So any more dovish comments/allied action wud simply open flood gates straight for next Gr AA SUP @ 7060's (which is a ascending TL on D1 TF and
interestingly would completely form a typical bearish H&S on D1 TF.. which if breaks.. less likely soon...wud be very bearish

Just a bigger (technical) picture


P.S. Further the way the price is moving.. i wont be surprised if it somehow even tries to runs stops over past week's highs, before rate statement
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Quoting forexsaint
{quote} Important RBA event tomorrow.. all will surely move to some extent. I would love though if there is least talk of any rate cuts (or rate cut as such..very less likely) and least dovish comments too...Wud love to see the aussie fly and shock the market... bcoz whatever i read around ..peeps are just too short commodities and associated CCY's (thanks to multiyear low commodity index) and that wud be perfect for a good squeeze (temporary or kinda permanent (for some time)). Anyhow major movements/directional changes/continuations across the...
aud and nzd are really surprising me. but my overall bias is short on both currencies. right now short audusd and audcad. daily on aud and nzd looks good for bulls. it is all really confusing. sellers must be careful. let's WnW want to see how daily will close.
As Above, So Below
NZDUSD & AUDUSD

- Ripping thorough ceiling & Bear stops (and ready for squeeze esp AUD)
- NZD still the hotter hand leading than AUD. NZDJPY is the biggest gainer in last 24 hours
- AUNZD still under pressure
- Chinese CAIXIN PMI next..
- and YES , in AUD, this is the same stop running going on before the RBA

WATCHOUT
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  • Post #205
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:48pm Nov 30, 2015 11:31pm | Edited at 11:48pm
AUDUSD
- Nothing unexpected from RBA.. a DUD release
- Bulls wud need more reasons/catalysts to follow up with new highs (generally in the form of broad USD weakness and/or Next Day GDP data (which is expected to be lot better)). Gr B RES 7290, Gr AA RES 7335 & Gr AAA RES Zone 7450-7500 on upside
- Bears wud need it back below 7210-7200 for any momentum again and for those bearish patterns to play (H4 H&S kinda got invalidated with right shoulder up by a pip or so..but i still wud consider it in larger picture). Same old Gr A SUP 7160 and Gr AA SUP 7060 on Downside
- Would consolidate IMO going into NFP (except if commodity complex;CAD;Oil;Gold; etc trigger some important moves)
- Not to forget any RBA Governor jawboning tomorrow; possible

NZDUSD
-Failure to hold highs and retrace back below 6560's would infer bears coming in howling
- If abv happens, completed Bearish wedge(which just broke to upside(fake or not time will tell)) on H4 TF, could play out with lower TL SUP around same IMP 6530 TUG of war zone (which is now 6560 actually IMO)
- For bulls, if 6600 held (and broad USD weakness(NFP)/Commodity recovery happens; or Milk price auction related), upside to same old levels mentioned Gr AA 6690 and Gr AAA 6900 (with least resistance in between)
- Personally can enter longs on retrace to 6600, otherwise on the sidelines

AUDNZD
- RBA's dud kind rules out any major downside possible. SLow and steady slide can happen if NZD keeps leading in upmove / shows resilience to downmove

GBPUSD
- Really nice PA. Loving the downside consolidation.
- See a good opportunity (esp by NFP) . Looking to collect longs @ 1.5000-1.5050 zone (any spike below 1.5 with bleak/no follow through should be a great opportunity to load up longs IMO
- Any good NFP misses (and thus pressure of no fed HIKE) can start a Good BEAR SQUEEZE with EXTREME bear squeeze if no FED hike happens on Dec 16th
- PAIR to BUY on USD slaughtering would be GBPUSD for me.
- Will try posting some charts

EURUSD
- Similar downward consolidation( since 3 weeks or so) like GU with not so great follow through (ofc ECB and Fed actions are awaited)
- NOT touching it, even with 10 feet long pole, till DRAGHI comes out with what he wants to do on THURSDAY
- No unusual QE or so-so steps might push it to new lows only to be BOUGHT IMO (around early 2015 lows...1.05 etc,)
&
any good NFP misses can squeeze EUR bears.. & SQUEEZE them royally (in case of no fed HIKE)


Lets WnW
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AUD RBA Policy Statement difference (left of November; right December)

No change on AUD related views though (options open)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clipboard02sssss.jpg Size: 979 KB
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Quoting forexsaint
Looking to collect longs @ 1.5000-1.5050 zone (any spike below 1.5 with bleak/no follow through should be a great opportunity to load up longs IMO
- Started collecting GBPUSD longs since 1.5005 & under
- 1.4975 is a very IMP confluence Gr AA SUP.
- 1.5 ofc is a very IMP round SUP

If i would be only a technical trader (i am mostly) and no major inflection point in sight (NFP/Fed hike)...i would buying it in quite far big sizes
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
  • Post #208
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:22am Dec 2, 2015 9:52am | Edited at 10:22am
Tomorrow is an IMP day (esp for EURO) & day after too
2 Interesting charts & 2 interesting links to read (FWIW)

Via Citibank's Brent Donelly
Attached Image



Via ChrisVechhio
Attached Image


Dollar Risks Grow as Hedge Funds Make Greenback Most Favored Bet
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...st-favored-bet

Hedge funds have never bet this much on a falling gold price
http://www.mining.com/hedge-funds-ha...ng-gold-price/
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Update 60 & 61 done in 1st post.
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Agreed GBPUSD could be a winner soon, but so far it looks ugly

Still adding ? or waiting lower?
COT : the precious data ignored & FX investing: mid/long term ideas
Quoting kuroro001
Agreed GBPUSD could be a winner soon, but so far it looks ugly Still adding ? or waiting lower?
https://twitter.com/ForexSaint/statu...69412325748736
5005,4978,4958 (& relatively larger size @ 4944 (not yet triggered))
stops below 4900 (still waiting for NFP)
ofc not part of these tiny attempt acc's


P.S.
To all,
i really dont want this thread to be a calls thread. and dont go by my name i am not a "saint" with trade directions.99% wrong
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
  •  yji
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Update 62 & 63 done in 1st post.

Last attempt was prolly the crappiest entries ever (on gbpusd). ofc tiny accounts cant handle drawdown..esp whem margin requirements for pair like GU are highest among majors

New attempt has taken AUDUSD sniper longs and Looking for new swinghighs. (even trade balance numbers not keeping it down; goodinterest down there)
LVLs on upside (as mentioned before)
Gr AA RES 7335
GR AA RES 7385
Gr AAA RES Zone 7450-7500

Heavily scaling for move soon

Lets WnW
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Quoting forexsaint
Tomorrow is an IMP day (esp for EURO) & day after too 2 Interesting charts & 2 interesting links to read (FWIW) Via Citibank's Brent Donelly {image} Via ChrisVechhio {image} Dollar Risks Grow as Hedge Funds Make Greenback Most Favored Bet http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...st-favored-bet Hedge funds have never bet this much on a falling gold price http://www.mining.com/hedge-funds-ha...ng-gold-price/
Another Interesting flowchart for Euro Traders

Source- UBS
Attached Image
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Update 64 & 65 done in 1st post.

So a New Year has come starting with a nice risk OFF 1st trading day (commo currencies and indices spanked head to toe). Lets see what the year holds.
Interesting january till now. (Does anyone has a data on price trends/direction relative to trend/direction in 1st month..bcoz from my PA experience, early moves are often fakey's..and so can be january. Just a thought).
Personally see a lot of instruments and pairs ready for a retrace/reversal short to medium term. Further for me the extent of GBPUSD pounding across the board has indeed surprised me.

Anyway,
- Currently looking for commodity currency retraces back up (on higher TF's)or reversals (on Lower TF's). I feel Aussie can lead Kiwi (in case that happens).
- IMO In bearish case too aussie downside (technically atleast) will ne less pronounced
- Looking @ BULL case of AUSDUSD collecting longs from 6960 (with deeper retrace even till 6920's).
- Above 6900 remains a BUY for me for Upside LVL's of 7050 (Gr A), 7170 (GrAA), 7400 (Gr AAA),. 7530, (Gr AA), 8000(Gra AAA)..yeah far fetched i know..but just in case (Upper LVL's are on monthly TF's)
- Will post charts soon. I am checking out a different online charting app. That looks good than mt4 publishing


Lets WnW


P.S. Wishing a Profitable(and MORE importantly happy) New year to all good human beings
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Quoting forexsaint
Update 64 & 65 done in 1st post. So a New Year has come starting with a nice risk OFF 1st trading day (commo currencies and indices spanked head to toe). Lets see what the year holds. Interesting january till now. (Does anyone has a data on price trends/direction relative to trend/direction in 1st month..bcoz from my PA experience, early moves are often fakey's..and so can be january. Just a thought). Personally see a lot of instruments and pairs ready for a retrace/reversal short to medium term. Further for me the extent of GBPUSD pounding across...
Hi FS,
I agree with your views on AU. it has build some strong support around 692x's and i am watching this level for possible long.
GU is no man's land, though i have a bearish bias on this pair. More details in my journal.
Bot AU and GU waiting for FOMC and i guess only then we will have more clear direction.
Meanwhile watching JPY, whatever the outcome from FOMC, i will be looking for long this currency. Later this week BOJ will have it's say and we will see if JPY will have deeper correction or continues to rule over all other currencies across the board.
Happy pipping
As Above, So Below
  • Post #217
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:50am Jan 26, 2016 3:37am | Edited at 3:50am
AUDUSD

- Didnt really expect to see 6920's (wanted price to end retrace @ 6950's) but it hit and as posted till 6020's remains a buy on Dip for me
- Currently hitting 6950's..lets see the PA. Would want a quick move to 6980's first telling interest of bulls. holds above then 7050 retest likely soon
- IMP LVL's as mentioned in previous post remain same

H4 TF
- Inv H&S right shoulder forming
- Liking the current long wick on H4 bar if forms
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016_01_26_AUDUSD_H4_Longs_PossibleHigherTFReversal.jpg Size: 321 KB


W1 TF
- Blue Line is a Multi-Year SUP Cum RES LVL (shd have drawn as a range zone rather)
- 7170-7200(GrAA zone) wud again act as a SELL accumulation zone for bears..have to see how much its kicked down there
- Monthly Close around and above 7100 would really give boost to bullish BIAS (confirming a fakey 1st month breakdown to multiyear lows to be kicked back up)
- Whole BULL case (as mentioned in last post) can also be a quick retrace for new multi year lows but i dont think so except if CHINA screws up a lot
- Slow and steady upmove wud also point to a tired bear pressure being taken over by early move bulls
- Commodity slump is being talked on streets now by every tom dick and harry. When then happens regarding anything...you know what markets do (its all mass psychology)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016_01_26_AUDUSD_W1_Longs_PossibleReversalorCorrection.jpg Size: 220 KB


Last attempt got down the drain and another too (kinda hurried one trying to not miss the same Aussie move; u kinda get carried away with these tiny accounts with who-cares mentality..not good i know..anyway )..didnt even update
- Another one is live now. will update later

Lets WnW how the Daily Ends (anything around 6980 wud be really nice)


@tashkent yes FOMC is an event (but kinda a non event) i feel it wud be $ negative (whether to large extent or small or best case neutral...it cant be $ positive IMO. Whole rate rise crap is a farce and US markets especially are nicely showing that since december)
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Quoting forexsaint
AUDUSD - Didnt really expect to see 6920's (wanted price to end retrace @ 6950's) but it hit and as posted till 6020's remains a buy on Dip for me - Currently hitting 6950's..lets see the PA. Would want a quick move to 6980's first telling interest of bulls. holds above then 7050 retest likely soon - IMP LVL's as mentioned in previous post remain same H4 TF - Inv H&S right shoulder forming - Liking the current long wick on H4 bar if forms {image} W1 TF - Blue Line is a Multi-Year SUP Cum RES LVL (shd have drawn as a range zone rather) - 7170-7200(GrAA...
Pardon me, but can i know what does GrAA zone means?

Thanks!
AUDNZD

This pair is a Long TF pair for me as it chops a lot and often has trends if wicks are kinda mitigated

- Keeping a WATCH on it with medium sized long positions ON
- Pretty close to a Weekly TF TL above around 1.0850. Break would be IMPORTANT
- On Monthly TF has a kinda bullish Inv H&S (with right shoulder forming now (i feel trough of right shoulder is done)
- NZD might be forward guided by RBNZ this Thursday (wont cut imo) that will also kinda giving boost to AUDNZD
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Pardon me, but can i know what does GrAA zone means? Thanks!
- Have this habit of Grading LVL's (SUP & RES both) regarding their Importance on charts, based on PA, Demand & Supply zones, confluence with simple patterns, TL's & sometimes Fibs)
- When two levels are close they form a range zone
- Lower TF charts give weak LVL's & higher TF chart analysis gives stronger LVL's

In order of importance/strength
Grade AAA (strongest)
Gr AA
Gr A
Gr B
Gr C (Weakest)


Nothing special. Just helps one keep things in perspective when looking to place SL. TP, Scale In, Scale out, etc


P.S.
and when i am quite drunk, i label high TF strongest ones as some Gr AAAAA (Penta 5) LVL
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->> www<DOT>goo<DOT>gl/oJUVdv
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