DislikedHow will you be able to obtain P(stopped out) or P(take profit) without using historical data of walks for pinbars at a swing high? Mere deviation from a central price based on probabilities of random walks? I like the idea, but forex isn't random, it isn't like flipping a coin. GBP/USD has run up ~1500 pips from the low a few months ago. We can examine the random probability of it doing this, and the odds are very small by random (given p,q=50%), but as you know, historically the pair has moved this much and more in the past. This is how we know...Ignored

Homeruns and capital preservation.