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EUR/TRY

  • #1
  • First Post: May 3, 2010 12:20pm May 3, 2010 12:20pm
Hello,
As I couldn't find a thread for EUR/TRY I have decided to open one so we can discuss the pair here. It's really interesting pair right now and I'm in a short position. The EUR is overvalued in my opinion when compared to the TRY because of the good fundamentals on the Turkish economy, the interest rates as you earn while keeping the position even if it doesn't change. So far the TRY has gained aprox 15% against the EUR since the peak at 2.3 but I think the trend is still down for the EUR and this is a good opportunity. Saxo bank and also RBS recommend this position this year.

Regards,
Octacomm
  • #2
  • Jul 19, 2011 1:32pm Jul 19, 2011 1:32pm
Hello
...and what your opinion one year later?

PR1
  • #3
  • Sep 12, 2012 3:29pm Sep 12, 2012 3:29pm
long 2.3000
target 2.4000
Never change your position without a good reason
  • #4
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:39am Nov 2, 2012 11:39am
Hey guys does anyone think this is good carry trade?
  • #5
  • Nov 5, 2012 6:04am Nov 5, 2012 6:04am
Fitch just upgraded Turkey's credit rating. I like a long TRY/JPY position, as the boj seems to talk about more stimulus these days. Or even a short position on EUR/TRY. Rolls aren't too bad

Here is the upgrade article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-by-fitch.html
  • #6
  • Nov 5, 2012 6:06am Nov 5, 2012 6:06am
What is your spread for TRY/JPY and EUR/TRY? I am not sure if I have a good spreads for those pairs
  • #7
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:38am Nov 5, 2012 8:38am
The spreads are a bit higher than the major pairs, i have seen eur/try anywhere from 3.0-24.00 pip spread. i usually try to get in about 2 hours before the NY session starts. That is when i have noticed it is the lowest.

TRY/JPY usually has about 6 pip spread. I used a spread indicator to record the spreads to find out its low point during each session for each broker.
  • #8
  • Nov 9, 2012 1:21am Nov 9, 2012 1:21am
Morning all :-
I had a look on this via Oanda last night / this morning
The spreads where as follows (GMT)
8pm = 30 pips 9pm 60 pips 10.30pm 100 pips 7.30 am 10 pips
Anyway I shorted a lot at 2.2756 cost me 30 pips for 3.5 GBP per pip
I think watching PA is a lot more interesting when there’s money at stake.
This is not a scalping currency -)
  • #9
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:47am Nov 21, 2012 1:47am
Really good thread!
  • #10
  • Jan 25, 2013 12:44am Jan 25, 2013 12:44am
I'm really interested in a short carry with this trade as the rollover is nice and it happens to be at an area that can be traded. I've just started looking at this pair so it would be nice to have others share their thoughts. I've noticed this pair correlates nicely with EUR/USD but at the time of typing more euro strength could be arriving and could break resistance. Any thoughts?

the attached chart is eur/try with 3 moving averages for contrast and eur/usd price action to show the correlation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur_Try_EU_overlay.png Size: 75 KB
  • #11
  • Aug 29, 2013 10:22am Aug 29, 2013 10:22am
- TRY one of the biggest movers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURTRY H1.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY H1.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold H4.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Daily.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX500 H4.png Size: 24 KB
  • #12
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:44am Sep 10, 2013 1:44am
EUR/TRY is definately woth looking, nice moving actually! For carry trade I'm also looking at ZAR/NOK, another significant leg down in this pair and I'm a buyer!
  • #13
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:47am Sep 10, 2013 1:47am
is that true that those pairs can manipulated very easily?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #14
  • Jan 17, 2014 11:29am Jan 17, 2014 11:29am
USDTRY - EURTRY always gaining long position, as the central bank is watching dumber, more than the value of the Turkish lira falls
  • #15
  • May 7, 2014 9:34pm May 7, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting Dnytis
EUR/TRY is definately woth looking, nice moving actually! For carry trade I'm also looking at ZAR/NOK, another significant leg down in this pair and I'm a buyer!
I find it very attractive too, but the volatility is quite frightening. Not much analysis over it. So it is hard work piecing together the bits and pieces. From what I know Turkey's economy is stronger 4% but then its political situation is kinda unstable. EUR still needs massive injection of cash QE 1,2 to Infinity. Though it seems short looks good esp the carry trade, my main worry is a coup or something like that.
  • #16
  • Sep 3, 2014 12:39am Sep 3, 2014 12:39am
daily chart for mid term trading

All the data look for south...

1)price under the cloud
2)ma9 cross the ma26 from the top
3)senku span lag indi under the cloud
4)bearish abcd pattern

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: C0GILtz.png Size: 92 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #17
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:29am Sep 4, 2014 4:29am
Quoting spinozagr
daily chart for mid term trading All the data look for south... 1)price under the cloud 2)ma9 cross the ma26 from the top 3)senku span lag indi under the cloud 4)bearish abcd pattern Venceremos {image}
still very promising... and the swap is our friend here

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gvr5rcj.png Size: 97 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #18
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:04pm Sep 4, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting spinozagr
daily chart for mid term trading All the data look for south... 1)price under the cloud 2)ma9 cross the ma26 from the top 3)senku span lag indi under the cloud 4)bearish abcd pattern Venceremos {image}
In less than two days more than 500 pips...but the most interesting thing is that the chart shows more south

Lets see

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UpVEaOw.png Size: 135 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #19
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:23am Sep 6, 2014 1:23am
Quoting spinozagr
daily chart for mid term trading All the data look for south... 1)price under the cloud 2)ma9 cross the ma26 from the top 3)senku span lag indi under the cloud 4)bearish abcd pattern Venceremos {image}
OUT with a significant profit...

The icon still is very bearish for the mid-term traders

Venceremos
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DvpwS7R.png Size: 77 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #20
  • Sep 8, 2014 9:59pm Sep 8, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} OUT with a significant profit... The icon still is very bearish for the mid-term traders Venceremos {image}
Shorting on bounces myself on continued Euro weakness/easing.

Good swap on the short side, but oddball pip cost, and increased margin burden (unfortunately). Nevertheless, FXCM is currently quoting 1.07 on the short side for rollover/swap, which I am incapable of resisting.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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