Yen-Trades (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)

Hello all!

I have noticed a lot of coverage on the GBP/JPY pair on this site however little to no coverage on the other two yen pairs. I am 24 years old and have currently been trading full-time for 6 months.

I vary from trading various pairs and have been involved with trading $/Y pair since November last year as I saw potential in it to rise. In February/March where it was in a consolidation phase I have held onto positions acquired at the 88 level and liquidated them at 92.50 in early April.

I am looking to re-enter since I believe we may see the 100 level by the end of the year. To reiterate, USD/JPY will be medium-term whereas EUR/JPY I am quite happy to trade for the short term as well.

I will post fundamental and technical research on this thread since when dealing with Japan there are a lot of fundamental forces that can elevate or suppress the Yen (politics, life insurers, fiscal year etc) therefore I believe it is important to consider both aspects when placing a trade.

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Happy Hunting!

Ok so let's get started, below is a chart of the daily USD/JPY.

Technically, these past few days the pair has gained enough momentum to decisively break through the pivotal 93.80 level (January 2010 high) so as long as it remains above this level, we could see a retest of the April highs at 94.80, initially it should cap the rise and the bulls should take a break at this level, allowing it to retrace a bit (perhaps back down to 93.80 support) which is a good entry level for the next push upwards.

Below 93.80 is a more neutral theme and should find solid support at the 200ema/50ema (around the 92.00 level). Below 92.00 would turn the outlook negative.

The favoured medium-term scenario is a push above the 94.80 level en route to 97.80 and eventually 99.84 (a few months down the road).

I am holding long positions at the following levels:

300k at 91.80
300k at 92.50

I am looking to exit the longs at 94.80 and re-enter short on a retracement from that level.

Will post up fundamentals on this pair later tonight (also eur/jpy)

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happy hunting

Following the election of the new Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama, Japan has been waiting, hopeful for a reform of the current economy. The facts remain however that Japan remains steeped in deflation and that a strong yen is counter productive to the Japanese economy.

Short-term risk aversion due to the Greece/Euro crisis could lead to some unwinding of Yen short positions however medium-long term the only way for Japan forward is to conduct a loose monetary policy which should significantly weaken the Yen - this would be done by intervention into the FX markets by the BoJ.

Furthermore Japanese life insurers have expressed their desire to increase unhedged foreign bond exposure which should also weaken the Yen significantly.

I plan to play the rise of the USD/YEN as follows:

Create a large long position of dollar/yen at levels varying from 88-93 (buying on any dips) and closing part of the position for a profit short-term while keeping the rest and riding out the longer-term rise to 100 by the year end (I have not yet decided whether or not to put a trailing stop loss on the strategic long positions), all my trades will be done in blocks of 500k, closing out 200k short-term and riding the 300k out.

I hope you guys find this journal useful, please feel free to shoot me any questions or comments!

What are you seeing long term for E/J? Im seeing 129-130 based on weekly

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aG_wSOFivAmM

Where is gone USD / JPY? King of the candles?