If I'm understanding post 628 and 633, the1H is the final trigger when it closes past 50 and 4H is used only for exit when it closes past 50.
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DislikedSpud,
I think I missed a few posts, so do mind clearing something up for me please?
Are we only entering now when the 4hr either comes down from the 80 (Short) and going up from the 20 (Long)? And prior to this, lets use a short for an example... The 4hr is above the 80 and price is still climbing slightly or ranging. The 15min crosses down through the 50, then the 30min crosses down through the 50, and finally the 1hr falls through the 50... Now we wait for the 4 hr to curl down and penetrate the 80 to enter short?
This is how I'm understanding it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks!
BagovinoIgnored
DislikedTHE SPUD MTF STOCHASTIC SYSTEM
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Many people have asked about an exit strategy, given this is the hardest part of trading. I've been doing some experimenting and have combined the 80/20 rule with the 50 rule to develop what I think is a very good enter/exit strategy.
All trades start with the 4H entry by the 80/20 rule. Support comes from having the 15/30/1H supporting with their 80/20 crosses before the 4H. Optionally you can enter at the Spud50 if you are more conservative. Trades should go in direction of Day stochastic.
Trades are followed through the "50 Rule" (aka the Spud50), where 15/30/1H/4H cross the 50 line.
Exits can be done by choice on the 15/30/1H or 4H chart. Exit area on a long is when the 15/30/1H cross the 20 down but before it recrosses the 20 up. This is an "area" that the trader will have to determine as optimum for exit. The 4H exit is quite different. That exit on a long is done when the 4H crosses the 38.2 line. Short exits are the opposite.
The picture below demonstrates a trade. It shows all 4 time frames (15/30/1H/4H) so that you may study the interaction of each. You will see that as we move into longer time frames, our indicators converge so that we have less vertical lines showing by the time we hit the 4H chart.
In this example the only entry confirmation was the 4H crossing the 80 for a short! There was no clear confirmation from the 15/30/1H with the 80/20 rule prior to the 4H confirmation. Probably can be classified as a high risk trade. However all time frames hit the Spud50 which would have been a good indication to ride the trade to exit.
I have backtested this on GBPJPY and will include more examples on going of using this method.Ignored
DislikedResults from the first live trade of Spud's MTF Stochastic System
GBPJPY Short 8:00 GMT
Maximum Draw Down: 15 Pips
Entry at 4H 80 cross @ 239.41
15M Exit +40 Pips
30M Exit +69 Pips
1H Exit +61 Pips
4H Exit +81 Pips
My result: +35 PipsIgnored
DislikedTeb,
I agree, trend lines are very important. However they are very subjective. Meaning everyone draws them differently. Give 3 traders the same 4 hr chart and they will all draw their trend lines a little differently.
Would you be so kind as to share how your draw yours? I see from your charts that you are very accurate with them!
Thanks,
B.Ignored
DislikedSpud,
Did you trade your original system this week, or were you testing your newer methods?Ignored
DislikedHi Spud
you are better at back testing these things then me
I have had a lot of time to think this weekon vacation
Started playing with an Idea
very simple 3 things
4 hour channel--- its the trend never go against it
4 hour stoch 533
& 30 stoch 533
& darn if it didn't work- it is simple simple
I also tried 1 hour & 15 mins - & 30 mins & 5 mins.also worked
other people want to look at it
TEBIgnored
DislikedI just refer to the default stochastic indicator included in MT4.
More troubling was the discovery in our chat group of the time differences between feeds. For example I am using MoneyTec and the 4H candles were closing 1H ahead of those on FastBrokers. There is alos a rather large discrepency in stoch levels. During the GJ dive on Thursday, there was a 25 point discrepency in stoch levels during the open candle! On Friday my 4H closed at 21.8 (an entry) while FastBrokers closed at around 18 (meaning they had to wait 4H's for the next candle to close above 20).
I am not sure what the overall impact of these differences between feeds has on overall statistics. I would think over the long haul it would average out.
Anyways, it now explains why people kept thinking I was trading on open candles or could not see the trade signals I saw. Lesson learned is if trading in group sessions...make sure the entire group is using the same feed!Ignored
DislikedI've also noticed a significant involvement of the 38.2 and 61.8 levels on 4H entries with lesser time frames. For example in long successful trades there is a high number of trades where one of the 15/30/1H time frames will hit the 38.2 level as the 4H breaks the 20 level.....almost the exact opposite is true of failed trades where none of the 15/30/1H time frames are at 38.2.Ignored