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Hedge and Correlation Strategy

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  • Post #1,241
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  • Sep 12, 2009 3:44pm Sep 12, 2009 3:44pm
  •  shinny
  • Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trading The Matrix | 819 Posts
Hello All,

I am a trend trader most of the time, thats how I make most of my money.

But the thing about trend trading is I watch my 600 pip profit turn into a 400 pip profit before my system gets me out.

So, I use a very similar method to this whereby I hedge 80% of my trend trade after a big move.

For example, I am currently long gbpusd, and up over 400 pips from this trade. In my experience, I normally get between 400-600 pips on position, so when i get to this number I look hedge this profit in, and in this case I now have a short cable position of 80% of my trend position. Also, I am short eurjpy on trend, but only just entered that. So, I am short cable and long eurjpy at 80% of the trend position size, which a) protects my profit in the long cable position b) Negates the eurjpy trend position if wrong c) Gives me some added profit potential.

A few scenarios could now happen:

a) Cable could continue higher - locked in the 400 pips and will gain 20% from the 100/80% cable hedge

b) Cable could go lower, only exposed to a 20% position loss, as 80% hedged

c) eurjpy could continue lower/eurjpy could go higher, same scenario as above

d) gbpusd could go lower and eurjpy could go higher at same time - I lose the same as I would have done on my eurjpy short trend, lock in most of my gbpusd profit on trend and make money on both my short cable and long eurjpy hedge.

I have traded this for ages, and unless you are using it to complement another system (like a trend following system) you will struggle.

Hope that helps!

Shinny
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
 
 
  • Post #1,242
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  • Sep 12, 2009 4:01pm Sep 12, 2009 4:01pm
  •  pujolshomerun
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
Quoting renski911
Disliked
charts changing yea i noticed that happening.. i dont think i will live trade this idea anymore.. just due to this. if you watching a pair then the chart changes you have nothing to go by anymore.. so i got completely lost.

i like the idea chamane....
Ignored
Exactly. Chart changes and it makes it look like the lines have crossed but in many cases, they have not.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
 
 
  • Post #1,243
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2009 4:56pm Sep 12, 2009 4:56pm
  •  bravester
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: No Guts No Glory | 340 Posts
Quoting pujolshomerun
Disliked
Exactly. Chart changes and it makes it look like the lines have crossed but in many cases, they have not.
Ignored

Out of the various charting systems, indicators and other things discussed here , are there any that are reliable enough not to shift or repaint or other stuff so that we can reliably use?

Marketscope overlays,MT4, StaticOverlay indicator .... anyone ?
 
 
  • Post #1,244
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  • Sep 12, 2009 4:57pm Sep 12, 2009 4:57pm
  •  bravester
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: No Guts No Glory | 340 Posts
Also , i observed that the repainting and chart shift happens very less on 30 m and higher timeframes, you think that might be the way to go withe higher tf?
 
 
  • Post #1,245
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  • Sep 12, 2009 5:27pm Sep 12, 2009 5:27pm
  •  shinny
  • Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trading The Matrix | 819 Posts
Quoting bravester
Disliked
Also , i observed that the repainting and chart shift happens very less on 30 m and higher timeframes, you think that might be the way to go withe higher tf?
Ignored
Definately, no less than 30 mins. I only ever use the 30 min for the overshoots just to pick where to place my hedge.
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
 
 
  • Post #1,246
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2009 6:08pm Sep 12, 2009 6:08pm
  •  renski911
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 17 Posts
ive only noticed it on under 30m timeframes.. it happened on a 15min timeframe though too.
 
 
  • Post #1,247
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:12pm Sep 12, 2009 8:55pm | Edited 9:12pm
  •  pujolshomerun
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
Quoting renski911
Disliked
ive only noticed it on under 30m timeframes.. it happened on a 15min timeframe though too.
Ignored
It will change eventually. It looks like it is fixed right now because timeframe is bigger but as time goes by, it will repaint it self and it will change
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
 
 
  • Post #1,248
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  • Sep 13, 2009 1:19am Sep 13, 2009 1:19am
  •  IamTHAT
  • | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
Quoting chamane
Disliked
If this works out, I would be tempted to use 3 stdev.
Ignored
There is lot of information available on this on correlation thread by spieler.
He basically focuses on EURCHF stdev for EURUSD and USDCHF and entry steps of 0.25 std ev.
Here is the indicator (by swing man)used.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SpielersHedge DivergenceStdDev_v3.ex4   14 KB | 658 downloads
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
 
 
  • Post #1,249
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:37am Sep 13, 2009 9:37am
  •  chamane
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 1,986 Posts
Quoting IamTHAT
Disliked
There is lot of information available on this on correlation thread by spieler.
He basically focuses on EURCHF stdev for EURUSD and USDCHF and entry steps of 0.25 std ev.
Here is the indicator (by swing man)used.
Ignored
Thanks. I will have a look at that.
 
 
  • Post #1,250
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 1:14pm Sep 13, 2009 1:14pm
  •  chamane
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 1,986 Posts
If I understood correctly Spieler's method we watch for a divergence of at least ±0.25% between actual price and previous day's close of EURCHF. If the divergence is negative, we buy 1 lot of EURUSD and 1.5 lot of USDCHF. If the divergence is positive, we sell 1 lot of EURUSD and 1.5 lot of USDCHF. If the divergence is increasing after entering, we enter again. According to Spieler, the divergence goes rarely above 0.45%. Aim for small profits in the range of 50 pips. There is no stop loss. That strategy is another way of getting a signal when the spread is getting wider than average. I will certainly demo it this week.
 
 
  • Post #1,251
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:09pm Sep 13, 2009 6:09pm
  •  Gothamcity
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 128 Posts
Hello forex community,

I entered a trade gbp /usd gbp chf

last monday...

I was down 200 pips today so I finally pulled the plug

Be very careful with this strategy please...

I don't think I will implement this strategy for a long time
unless adjustments are made...

Good luck everyone
 
 
  • Post #1,252
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:39pm Sep 13, 2009 7:39pm
  •  pujolshomerun
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
Quoting Gothamcity
Disliked
Hello forex community,

I entered a trade gbp /usd gbp chf

last monday...

I was down 200 pips today so I finally pulled the plug

Be very careful with this strategy please...

I don't think I will implement this strategy for a long time
unless adjustments are made...

Good luck everyone
Ignored
What you traded was actually USD/CHF.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
 
 
  • Post #1,253
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:43pm Sep 13, 2009 7:43pm
  •  bravester
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: No Guts No Glory | 340 Posts
Quoting pujolshomerun
Disliked
What you traded was actually USD/CHF.
Ignored
so did he play long or short the USD/CHF?

He probably went Long GBP/CHF & Short GBP/USD on that trade.
 
 
  • Post #1,254
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:47pm Sep 13, 2009 7:47pm
  •  pujolshomerun
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
Quoting bravester
Disliked
so did he play long or short the USD/CHF?

He probably went Long GBP/CHF & Short GBP/USD on that trade.
Ignored


If you long GBP/CHF and short GBP/USD, that means you actually long USD/CHF.



GBP/CHF X USD/GBP = USD/CHF (because you divide GBP/USD, you have to multiply USD/GBP)
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
 
 
  • Post #1,255
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:54pm Sep 13, 2009 11:54pm
  •  bravester
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: No Guts No Glory | 340 Posts
Quoting pujolshomerun
Disliked
If you long GBP/CHF and short GBP/USD, that means you actually long USD/CHF.



GBP/CHF X USD/GBP = USD/CHF (because you divide GBP/USD, you have to multiply USD/GBP)
Ignored
What you say is quite right. I just checked this out on another set and it almost is like doing a directional trade of that underlying pair. But , it seems like there is always an arbitrage opportunity between the 2 trading pairs and the underlying actual pair which can be exploited for small number of pips almost everytime. When you have a big gain with your trade, it actually means that the underlying pair has gone in your favor thus creating all those +ve pips for you. Likewise when you have a 200 pip drawdown, you just need to look at the underlying pair to figure out the cause of your dd.

Thats just the way i understand it. If it were as simple as we think it is, then there wouldn't be famine and poverty on the earth. Unless there is something i am not understanding very well from a fundamental point, i think the bubble has burst for this thread atleast in my mind. But i would like to be proved wrong and would like a healthy argument from the more knowledgeable folks, most of all Dreamliner.
 
 
  • Post #1,256
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2009 1:45am Sep 14, 2009 1:45am
  •  T.E.Lawrence
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 3,071 Posts
I closed my gbp/usd / gbp/chf trade - -64 pips. I don't know if I would profit if I'd stay in this trade. I saw -300 pips in Friday, so when I checked today and there was 'only' -64 pips loss I just closed it, happy that was only 60 pips loss.
 
 
  • Post #1,257
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2009 4:11am Sep 14, 2009 4:11am
  •  hotstorm
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 148 Posts
Quoting bravester
Disliked
What you say is quite right. I just checked this out on another set and it almost is like doing a directional trade of that underlying pair. But , it seems like there is always an arbitrage opportunity between the 2 trading pairs and the underlying actual pair which can be exploited for small number of pips almost everytime. When you have a big gain with your trade, it actually means that the underlying pair has gone in your favor thus creating all those +ve pips for you. Likewise when you have a 200 pip drawdown, you just need to look at the underlying...
Ignored
Yes, you are right, it's been said many times but here is the link that will help you understand it better http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...64&postcount=7

It is from this thread here at FF http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=106711
 
 
  • Post #1,258
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:00am Sep 14, 2009 6:00am
  •  madscalp
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: French Trader | 895 Posts
Quoting billbss
Disliked
Bollinger Bands will do what you say.

In the case of EURUSD-GBPUSD, put up the EURGBP chart with Bollinger Bands. It is a 20MA with the upper and lower bands set at 2 standard deviations.

When it touches the top band, it means the EUR is strong and the GBP is weak.
When it touches the lower band it means just the opposite. There are your gaps. Real gaps, not flaky superimposed charts.
Ignored
Excellent and true, Bill.
It's really a good tool.
 
 
  • Post #1,259
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:36am Sep 14, 2009 6:36am
  •  T.E.Lawrence
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 3,071 Posts
Quoting billbss
Disliked
Bollinger Bands will do what you say.

In the case of EURUSD-GBPUSD, put up the EURGBP chart with Bollinger Bands. It is a 20MA with the upper and lower bands set at 2 standard deviations.

When it touches the top band, it means the EUR is strong and the GBP is weak.
When it touches the lower band it means just the opposite. There are your gaps. Real gaps, not flaky superimposed charts.
Ignored
OK, so now eur/gbp touches the upper band and there is a gap on overlayed eur/usd / gbp/usd chart - euro on top, cable at the bottom. What now? Sell euro and buy cable? From what you've said - no, because euro is strong, and we should wait for a better entry. Right?
 
 
  • Post #1,260
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2009 6:39am Sep 14, 2009 6:39am
  •  T.E.Lawrence
  • Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 3,071 Posts
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Disliked
OK, so now eur/gbp touches the upper band and there is a gap on overlayed eur/usd / gbp/usd chart - euro on top, cable at the bottom. What now? Sell euro and buy cable? From what you've said - no, because euro is strong, and we should wait for a better entry. Right?
Ignored
Here are the charts:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: bollinger.jpg
Size: 136 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: euro-cable.jpg
Size: 113 KB
 
 
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