Mr. Oba says econ will recover
and if he is so sure, will he bet all his personal money and long the stocks from now at 5x leverage? (assuming 8000-> 6600 is sure bottom, assuming citi 3$ is sure bottom)
this is a good question we need to think about... how much percentage his word we can take.
is recovery what he expect, or recovery what he is sure of and he will trade his own money with?
I guess same thing apply to the premier Wen... he is seeing indications of recovery.... does that equal to now is the bottom and there is no 2nd drop??
although Wen proved 1 thing last year says china's CPI must reset to normal (Y2008 oil was 150$ / now 50$ and Cu was 8k / now <4k),
and it did happen, this gave him a little credibility in addition to the earth quake rescue. (lucky?)
(ps: chart was old dow... new number should be this + 50 or so, see double top at 8k)
I think before a 8k break-out confirmation, it's not safe to do any 1 day long or short in stocks... because possibility of 2 way break-outs.
and if he is so sure, will he bet all his personal money and long the stocks from now at 5x leverage? (assuming 8000-> 6600 is sure bottom, assuming citi 3$ is sure bottom)
this is a good question we need to think about... how much percentage his word we can take.
is recovery what he expect, or recovery what he is sure of and he will trade his own money with?
I guess same thing apply to the premier Wen... he is seeing indications of recovery.... does that equal to now is the bottom and there is no 2nd drop??
although Wen proved 1 thing last year says china's CPI must reset to normal (Y2008 oil was 150$ / now 50$ and Cu was 8k / now <4k),
and it did happen, this gave him a little credibility in addition to the earth quake rescue. (lucky?)
(ps: chart was old dow... new number should be this + 50 or so, see double top at 8k)
I think before a 8k break-out confirmation, it's not safe to do any 1 day long or short in stocks... because possibility of 2 way break-outs.
Attached Image