Only EURUSD

Key NFP Data Highlights

1. Headline NFP: 143,000 jobs added (below the consensus of 170,000 and revised December figure of 307,000).
2. Unemployment Rate: Fell to 4.0% (from 4.1%).
3. Wage Growth (YoY): 4.1%, exceeding expectations of 3.8%.
4. Labor Force Participation Rate: Rose slightly to 62.6%.

Immediate Market Reaction
EUR/USD Movement: The pair dipped to 1.0350, testing key support levels, as the USD gained short-term strength despite the weaker headline NFP!

Eurozone Risks

1. US-EU Trade Tensions: Potential tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration threaten Eurozone growth, with Cipollone warning tariffs could lead to deflationary pressures

up or down, hmmm up down up down, she loves me she loves me not

1.035 remain strong for now.

I don't have a clue what is going to happen next!

The payrolls number failed to beat forecasts but wages and unemployment came better and that good for the dollar.

Also this is 1.00% after Trump tarrifs! Dollar positive short term or long term until something cracks in US!
University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Prelim Actual 4.3% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.3%)

1.0348 and 1.0411 is the range!

Here we go again!

Trump told Republican lawmakers he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday

DXY H1
update
trendlines

everything according to plan, bounce from the blue line, we are approaching resistance (green line)
if we stay below, the euro can rise again

Downside targets: 1.0320 - 1.0300 - 1.0272

EURUSD H4
trendlines

and a small look at the euro chart...

EURUSD has been trending downward, breaking below the 1.0352/50 level today amid increased volatility after reaching a high of 1.0411. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data released today was mixed, leading to consolidstion. However, the threat of new tariffs announced by Trump has pushed the pair below this support level, heading towards 1.0300.

Buyers should remain cautious as further tariff announcements could influence the market. However, once the dust settles and positive sentiment returns, we might see the pair start to consolidate.

It was great trading with you all this week. I'll have to close now, but I wish you all a wonderful weekend ahead!

how nicely done between the trend lines
Have a good weekend all

SL at BE+spread

Already placed pending Buy at 0241, just incase...

Expectations of additional ECB rate reductions, coupled with ongoing U.S. tariff talks, have impacted the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data was strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve's monetary policy unchanged, bolstering the dollar.

Currently, the pair is bearish, trading below the resistance at 1.0411. Support is identified between 1.0300 and 1.0271, but a drop below this could push the pair towards further lows around 1.0200/1.0211. On the upside, 1.0411 is pivotal, a break above this level could challenge resistances at 1.0442 and potentially 1.0467 if the initial resistance is breached.

Happy weekend!


Weekly volatility (range) 122 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0450 (EU3.18b), 1.0550 (EU2.69b), 1.0400 (EU2.04b) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US CPI, US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Retail Sales & US Industrial Production.

4H

The EU started the day lower due to Trump's threats of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports for all countries . The EUR/USD pair found support at 1.0282 and has since recovered, trading above the round number of 1.0300. The pair reached a weekly high of 1.0318, just below the resistance levels at 1.0338/60, which could be the next target if the upward correction continues. Key support levels to watch are 1.0300, 1.0282, and 1.0272, which might be tested again. More on the 1 hour chart below.

Happy new week!


Daily volatility (range) 56 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0450 (EU3.18b), 1.0550 (EU2.69b), 1.0400 (EU2.04b) Source: financialjuice.com

Hello all wishing you all a lot of pips this week
As of all this tariff thing this week i expect that we may see 1.02 if not lower this week. I will jump in to short position as soon as I see good resistance

Good morning traders!

Price Action and Key Levels

1. Current Price: EUR/USD is trading near 1.0310, 1.0320, struggling to recover after breaking below the critical support zone of 1.0365, 1.0350

1. Resistance Levels:
   1. 1.0355, 1.0357, 1.0365, 1.0400, 1.0440: Immediate resistance
   2. 1.0530, 1.0575: Major resistance zone

2. Support Levels:
   1. 1.0300, 1.0290: Psychological and technical support
   2. 1.0220, 1.0177: Long-term bearish target (January’s monthly low)

Breakdown Risks:

1. A sustained close below 1.0350 could accelerate declines toward 1.0200, with parity (1.0000) becoming a realistic target if structural weaknesses persist
2. A bullish reversal requires a decisive breakout above 1.0458, targeting 1.0530, 1.0600

Trade War Impact

1. Trump’s Tariffs: New 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and threats of EU/UK tariffs have fueled USD safe-haven demand. Retaliatory measures from China (15% on U.S. energy imports) add uncertainty
2. Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions and U.S.-EU trade disputes continue to favor USD strength

Upcoming Events:

1. Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony (Feb 10–11): Markets will scrutinize his stance on inflation and rate cuts.
2. U.S. CPI Data (Feb 12): A hotter-than-expected reading could solidify Fed hawkishness, pushing EUR/USD lower.

Long-Term Outlook

1. 2025 Bearish Bias: EUR/USD remains near annual lows (1.0330). A sustained break below 1.0470 risks a test of 1.0200 and eventual parity (1.0000)
2. Institutional Forecasts: Median year-end target at 1.0500, contingent on Fed easing and EU recovery

& Risk Management:

1. Use tight stop-loss orders ahead of high-impact events (CPI, Powell testimony)
2. Position sizing should account for heightened volatility

H4: S&R!

Hi Greg! Green pips to you, thanks!

I agree 1.0200/22 must be tested unless we see it back above 1.0360. Good luck!

Long @1.0300

EURUSD H1
trendlines

pattern: falling wedge
we can fall below 1.03
if we get above the yellow line, eurusd can rise

Yup, Then it will become support!