PUPrime In-Depth Market Analysis (Discussion)

1. Rebounded on Federal Reserve's caution towards interest rate cuts.
2. Strong US economic data including Services PMI, Existing Home Sales, and Manufacturing PMI bolstered confidence.
3. Contrasted with dovish stance of other major central banks.

Gold:

1. Retreated sharply on better-than-expected US economic data.
2. Selloff occurred as improved Manufacturing and Services PMI boosted US economic outlook.
3. Investors shifted away from safe-haven assets like gold amid stronger US Dollar.

Crude Oil:

1. Prices dipped slightly due to stronger US Dollar.
2. Dollar appreciation reduced appeal of dollar-denominated oil.
3. Long-term outlook remains optimistic; potential for central bank rate cuts to stimulate oil demand.

US Equities (Nasdaq):

1. Saw profit-taking after Federal Reserve's hawkish tone and strong US PMI data.
2. Investors sold high-risk equities amid uncertainty over Fed's monetary policy direction.
3. Market cautious ahead of upcoming US inflation report for further guidance.

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1. Continued to extend losses amid rising US economic uncertainties.
2. Reduced demand ahead of key US data releases, including PCE Price Index, GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims.
3. Japanese yen's record lows increased expectations of intervention, impacting the Dollar.

Nasdaq:

1. Dropped from record highs due to profit-taking and focus on crucial US economic data.
2. Nvidia shares fell 6.70%, extending losses for the third session, dragging down the tech-heavy index.
3. Weak risk appetite due to upcoming key economic events and US political debate.

Bitcoin:

1. Slumped below $60,000, experiencing lowest trading volumes since US Bitcoin ETFs approval.
2. Recorded its second consecutive week of outflows.
3. Bearish momentum driven by diminished expectations of Fed rate cuts and recent hawkish Fed tones.

Crude Oil:

1. Extended gains amid US Dollar depreciation and demand optimism.
2. Positive sentiment supported by anticipated easing monetary policies from major central banks.
3. Investors to monitor US crude oil inventories for further trading signals.

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1. Rebounded slightly on better-than-expected US economic data and hawkish Fed remarks.
2. US Consumer Confidence reported at 100.4, above the expected 100.0.
3. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman supported holding the current policy rate steady but open to raising borrowing costs if needed.
4. Fed Governor Lisa Cook mentioned rate cuts "at some point" due to progress on inflation and labor market cooling.

Gold Prices:

1. Retreated slightly due to hawkish Fed comments and positive US economic data.
2. Focus remains on upcoming US economic data, including GDP and Core PCE Price Index, for further trading signals.

Crude Oil Prices:

1. Retreated following a bearish inventory report.
2. API reported a 0.914 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories, against the expected decrease of 3.000 million barrels.
3. Gasoline inventories also rose by 3.843 million barrels, raising concerns about potential oil demand outlook.

Nasdaq:

1. Rebounded slightly, driven by strength in Nvidia and other tech megacaps.
2. Nvidia climbed 6.80% after a three-session selloff, boosting the broader chip sector.
3. Alphabet and Meta both rose over 2%, lifting the US equity market.
4. Caution advised ahead of US economic reports, including Core PCE Price Index and future monetary policy expectations.

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1. Extended gains due to rising US Treasury yields and widening yield differentials with major central banks.
2. Yield differentials fueled by potential rate cuts and easing monetary policies from ECB, BoE, and BoJ.
3. Appreciation seen as a technical rebound; investors await crucial US economic data including GDP, Core PCE Price Index, and Initial Jobless Claims for further trend clarifications.

Gold Prices:

1. Retreated slightly due to the appreciation of the US Dollar and a bearish technical breakout.
2. Rising US Treasury yields reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated gold.
3. Upcoming US economic data will be critical for future trading signals.

Japanese Yen (JPY):

1. Plummeted to a 38-year low against the US Dollar, driven by wide interest rate differentials between the US and Japan.
2. Potential for currency intervention by Japan Ministry of Finance and BoJ, similar to past interventions.
3. Close monitoring of Japanese authorities' actions is essential for market participants.

Crude Oil Prices:

1. Remained flat as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US economic data.
2. Bearish sentiment influenced by a bearish EIA inventory report showing a 3.591 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories, against expectations of a 2.600 million barrel decrease.

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1. Strengthened on positive US Initial Jobless Claims and GDP data, surpassing market expectations.
2. Market awaits US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data for potential pivot in dollar direction.
3. US Treasury yields eased, potentially signaling market anticipation of a September rate cut, which could weaken the dollar.

Gold Prices:

1. Rebounded from recent lows amid geopolitical tensions and potential trend reversal.
2. Breakout above $2,335 resistance level could indicate a bullish trend continuation.

Japanese Yen (JPY) and Pound Sterling (GBP):

1. Both currencies traded lower against the strengthened US dollar.
2. Focus on Japanese CPI data and UK GDP figures for potential currency movements today.
3. Positive UK GDP could support GBP, while higher than expected Japanese CPI might bolster JPY.

Oil Prices:

1. Edged higher due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Lebanon.
2. Concerns about broader regional conflict involving oil-producing countries like Iran increased fears of supply disruptions.

Ethereum (ETH):

1. Supported by speculation around the launch date of the ETH ETF, expected on July 2nd.
2. Analysts anticipate significant inflows into the ETH ETF, potentially boosting demand for Ethereum

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1. The Dollar Index retreated following a report indicating continued disinflation.
2. The US Core PCE Price Index dropped from 2.80% to 2.60%, meeting market expectations.
3. The CPI and PPI also confirmed the disinflationary trend.
4. Market participants expect potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve by September, according to CME FedWatch Tools.

Gold:

1. Gold prices surged initially due to easing US inflation data.
2. Retracted later due to stronger-than-expected economic reports like the Chicago PMI, which rose from 35.4 to 47.4.
3. Gold likely to consolidate until the release of the US jobs report later this week.

Euro:

1. The Euro faces potential volatility due to France's snap election.
2. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) led the first round, adding to market uncertainty.
3. Rising debt crisis in France and potential expansionary fiscal policy from RN could affect the bond market.
4. Investors are closely monitoring the situation for further trading signals.

Oil:

1. Oil prices retreated amid weak US fuel demand and profit-taking.
2. US oil production rose to a four-month high in April.
3. Gasoline demand fell to 8.83 million barrels per day, the lowest since February.
4. Easing inflation report boosted chances of central bank rate cuts, potentially supporting oil prices.

1. The Dollar Index gained momentum due to higher-than-expected US Treasury yields.
2. Increased investment in the US dollar as major currencies like the Euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc weakened.
3. Developed economies are leaning towards easing monetary policies and lower interest rates.

Gold:

1. Gold prices remain bullish, supported by rising geopolitical uncertainties globally.
2. Political instability in the Eurozone and potential currency intervention by the Bank of Japan contribute to market uncertainty.
3. Investors are shifting into safe-haven gold, anticipating further volatility with the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate reports.

Euro:

1. The Euro experienced volatility amid the uncertainty of France's snap election.
2. The Euro hit a two-week high following the strong performance of the National Rally party in the first round.
3. Rising French Treasury yields indicate potential yield premiums, but aggressive fiscal policies could strain the bond market and harm long-term economic growth.

Oil:

1. Oil prices extended gains due to stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data.
2. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 51.8, surpassing expectations and overshadowing earlier government PMI data indicating contraction.
3. Traders are monitoring the potential impact of the Atlantic hurricane season on oil and gas production and consumption.

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1. The Dollar Index retreated slightly due to dovish expectations from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
2. Powell indicated stable inflation in the US, suggesting a potential easing cycle for the US central bank.
3. US 10-year Treasury yields pulled back following Powell's statements.
4. The retreat was limited by the US jobs report, which showed an increase in JOLTs Job Openings to 8.140 million in May.

Gold:

1. Gold prices continue to consolidate within a range amid mixed sentiment.
2. Support from dipping US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar after Powell's dovish comments.
3. Gains were limited by a better-than-expected JOLTs Job Openings report, complicating the outlook for upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports.

Euro:

1. The Euro remained flat following comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde about the euro zone's progress on the disinflationary path.
2. Lagarde mentioned further easing of monetary policy depends on economic performance.
3. Significant volatility is expected ahead of the French elections.

Crude Oil:

1. Crude oil prices retreated slightly as fears of supply disruption from Hurricane Beryl diminished.
2. The storm is expected to avoid most oil fields as it heads toward Jamaica.
3. Losses were limited by upbeat oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), showing a sharp decline of 9.163 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected 150K decline.

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1. The Dollar Index dipped sharply due to weaker-than-expected US economic reports.
2. Expectations for Fed rate cuts increased following Jerome Powell's dovish statements.
3. Disappointing ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI contributed to the dollar's decline.
4. Investors await Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate reports for further insights.

US Equity Market:

1. The US equity market rebounded sharply amid falling US Treasury yields.
2. Pessimistic economic outlooks raised expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting equity prices.
3. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in June Nonfarm Payrolls with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4%.

Gold:

1. Gold prices rebounded sharply due to the depreciation of the US dollar.
2. Rising risk-off sentiment from US and French elections further supported gold.
3. Downbeat US economic data increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

Crude Oil:

1. Crude oil prices extended gains on a better-than-expected US oil inventory report.
2. US crude oil inventories declined sharply by 12.157 million barrels, exceeding expectations.
3. Dollar depreciation also supported oil prices, as crude is priced in dollars.

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1. The Dollar Index remained flat but extended slight losses ahead of the US jobs report.
2. Downbeat expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls report contributed to the dollar's slip.
3. Economists anticipate a modest increase of 190,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls with unchanged unemployment at 4.0%.
4. Market volatility expected as investors await the crucial jobs report for trading signals.

Gold:

1. Gold prices stayed steady amid US holidays and lack of market catalysts.
2. Previous dovish Fed statements and weak economic performance supported gold.
3. US election debates and upcoming Presidential election could increase volatility, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal.

Japanese Yen:

1. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar amid speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities.
2. Near-zero interest rates in Japan create pressure on the yen's exchange rate.
3. Markets are monitoring for potential intervention measures to stabilize the yen's value.

Oil:

1. Oil prices peaked to a two-month high on optimism over increased summer demand.
2. Speculations of supply disruptions also boosted oil prices.
3. Strong summer demand and better-than-expected inventory data supported the oil market.
4. Continued dollar depreciation further bolstered dollar-denominated oil prices.

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1. Rebounded in the Sydney session on geopolitical issues.
2. Safe-haven demand increased due to potential Trump victory implications.
3. Trump’s policy stance could lead to higher bond yields, strengthening the dollar.

Wall Street:

1. U.S. equity futures remained calm as traders digested recent events.
2. Market participants cautious on aftermath of geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin:

1. Rose above $60,000 following the recent attack.
2. Boosted by Trump's increased odds of winning the election due to his crypto-friendly stance.

Japanese Yen:

1. Experienced significant price movement likely due to suspected intervention.
2. Bank of Japan's likelihood of raising interest rates decreased from 59% to 51%.
3. Traders monitoring Friday’s Japan National CPI release for potential moves in BoJ’s monetary policy.

New Zealand Dollar:

1. Hovered within a sideways range over the past week.
2. Upcoming New Zealand CPI reading on Wednesday could strengthen the Kiwi against its peers.

Gold:

1. Nearing the $2420 level due to heightened geopolitical tension.
2. Expected to trade strongly above $2400 amid uncertainty from Trump-related incident.

Oil:

1. Prices edged lower on weaker U.S. consumer sentiment data.
2. Chinese GDP report, due later today, pivotal for oil prices.
3. Positive GDP reading from China expected to fuel upward momentum for oil prices.

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1. Dropped due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at possible rate cuts.
2. No specific timing for interest rate moves provided.
3. Investors focusing on the upcoming FOMC interest rates meeting for further signals.

Gold:

1. Prices rose due to increased risk-off sentiment ahead of the US Presidential elections.
2. Concerns over the assassination attempt on Trump added to market uncertainty.
3. Recent slowdown in US inflation supports dollar-denominated gold.

Oil:

1. Prices dipped on weak Chinese economic data.
2. China's GDP grew slower than expected in Q2.
3. China's refinery output fell by 3.70% in June.
4. Losses limited by Middle East tensions and OPEC's stabilization efforts.

Bitcoin:

1. Surged to a two-week high following the assassination attempt on Trump.
2. Increased odds of Trump winning the upcoming election boosted crypto market sentiment.
3. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $62,508, bringing its year-to-date gains to 47%.

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1. Extended losses on dovish Fed tone.
2. Powell indicated progress in stabilizing US inflation, suggesting potential rate cuts.
3. Fed decisions remain data-dependent; investors await further US economic data.

Gold:

1. Rebounded on depreciation of the US Dollar and rising political tensions.
2. Investors shifting to safe-haven assets like gold ahead of US Presidential election.
3. CME FedWatch pricing in over 90% chance of September rate cut, boosting gold's appeal.

Oil:

1. Tumbled on concerns over weak Chinese economic growth.
2. China's GDP report for Q2 was worse than expected, signaling pessimism.
3. Focus on upcoming US crude oil inventories report for market direction.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD):

1. Eased after downbeat inflation report.
2. NZD/USD rebounded on dip-buying as market anticipates Fed rate cuts.
3. New Zealand Q2 CPI dropped to 0.4% QoQ, below market consensus of 0.6%.

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1. Extended losses due to dovish remarks from Fed members.
2. Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled closer timing for rate cuts.
3. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted broader slowdown in inflation.

Gold:

1. Prices retraced sharply on profit-taking and technical corrections.
2. Managed to hold support at $2,450.
3. Supported by rising market volatility, risk-off sentiment, upcoming US Presidential elections, and dovish Fed statements.

Crude Oil:

1. Rebounded sharply on bullish inventory report.
2. EIA reported US crude oil inventories declined by 4.870 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of a 900,000-barrel drop.
3. Indicates strengthening demand and lower supply outlook, supporting prices.

Japanese Yen (JPY):

1. Surged amid intervention speculations.
2. Rebounded from a 38-year low, sparking significant volatility.
3. BoJ data indicated intervention with 2.14 trillion yen spent last week, and nearly 6 trillion yen estimated in total.
4. Weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair, coupled with the dollar's recent downward trend.

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1. Rebounded on strong US manufacturing data.
2. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged from 1.3 to 13.9, highest in over two years.
3. Robust retail sales report contributed to positive economic outlook.
4. Gains limited by downbeat jobs report, with US Initial Jobless Claims rising to 243K vs. expected 229K.

Gold:

1. Dipped on profit-taking and strong US manufacturing report.
2. Slight rebound in the dollar weighed on dollar-denominated gold.
3. Political uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts still present risks.

Crude Oil:

1. Retreated on a stronger dollar and weak Chinese growth.
2. Strengthening US dollar reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated oil.
3. Pessimistic economic performance in China, with leaders signaling a steady but vague economic policy course, contributed to the decline.

Euro (EUR):

1. Dipped after ECB left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
2. Decision was widely expected due to ongoing inflationary concerns, particularly from the labor market.
3. Eurozone headline inflation dipped to 2.50% in June from 2.60%, slightly higher than expected.
4. Investors anticipate possible rate cuts in September, monitoring economic performance for further guidance.

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1. Rebounded slightly on optimism surrounding Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency.
2. Markets hopeful that Trump’s economic policies could bolster the US economy.
3. Federal Reserve’s dovish tone and upcoming economic data releases, such as the inflation report and US Core PCE Price Index, will be crucial in determining the Dollar's future trajectory.

Bitcoin:

1. Surged in response to Biden’s withdrawal.
2. Market participants betting on Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency stance leading to favorable regulatory conditions.
3. Rally in Bitcoin pushing it to new highs.
4. Investors should monitor political developments and potential regulatory changes.

Gold:

1. Rebounded slightly as investors move toward safe-haven assets amid increased political uncertainty.
2. Longer-term effects of the US presidential election on gold prices remain unclear.
3. Investors advised to monitor further developments closely for additional trading signals.

Crude Oil:

1. Continued to tumble due to rising market volatility and uncertainties over China's economic performance, which have weighed on oil demand.
2. Investors should monitor potential OPEC+ supply cut decisions and upcoming oil inventory reports.
3. Focus also on wildfires in Canada for potential supply threats that could support oil prices.

Upcoming Economic Data:

1. Multiple crucial economic reports to be released, including the inflation report and US Core PCE Price Index.
2. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts; investors will closely watch these data releases for further confirmation and guidance.

1. The Dollar Index remained flat as investors digested Biden’s withdrawal and awaited crucial economic events.
2. Focus on preliminary GDP data for Q2, with many economists expecting an uptick.
3. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a preferred inflation gauge for the Fed, will be released on Friday.

Gold:

1. Gold prices experienced a slight rebound due to technical correction and bargain buying amidst rising election uncertainties.
2. Analysts expect the overall trend for gold to be slow as investors await crucial US economic data to gauge likely price movements.

Hang Seng Index and Chinese Equities:

1. The Hang Seng Index and other Chinese equities rallied following the People's Bank of China’s unexpected cut in key lending rates.
2. PBOC reduced the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.7%, the one-year loan prime rate to 3.35%, and the five-year loan prime rate to 3.85%.
3. Rate cuts aim to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and support Chinese equities.

Oil Prices:

1. Oil prices extended their losses due to diminishing risk appetite in the global market.
2. Biden’s withdrawal from the election and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris added to political uncertainty, prompting a selloff in oil assets.
3. Concerns over China’s economic growth persist despite Beijing's promise of more stimulus measures.

1. The Dollar Index edged higher but remained below 104.50, pressured by rate cut expectations despite better-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims data.
2. The dollar traded relatively flat this week within the 104.10 to 104.60 range.
3. Today's PCE data is expected to provide direction for the dollar, with potential for retreat from the current price consolidation range.

Gold:

1. Gold prices hit their lowest level in two weeks, hovering at another liquidity zone.
2. Awaiting crucial PCE data, which may influence gold prices if the data suggests US inflation is being curbed, potentially allowing for a technical rebound.

US Equity Market:

1. Wall Street was mixed, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declining while the Dow eked out gains.
2. A rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks into small caps, evidenced by the Russell 2000's rally, continued to shape the market.

Japanese Yen:

1. The yen has soared over 5% this month against the US dollar, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials with the US and unwinding of carry trades.
2. This surge has created liquidity strains, weighing on gold and Bitcoin.
3. High-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have also been pressured.

Crude Oil:

1. Crude oil prices settled higher in the last session, gaining more than 1% following upbeat US economic data.
2. A significant decrease in US crude stockpile data released days ago provided a catalyst for higher oil prices.

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1. The Dollar Index is consolidating as investors await key US economic data releases.
2. Recent strong US economic data contrasts with potential Fed rate cuts.
3. Upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate data will be crucial for market direction.

Gold:

1. Gold prices rebounded from two-week lows due to technical corrections and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
2. Mixed US economic data and unchanged Core PCE Price Index from the previous month contributed to market volatility.
3. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data for further trends.

Japanese Yen:

1. The yen surged 5% against the dollar since July 11, driven by rate hike speculations and market intervention.
2. The yen's rally faces uncertainty due to recent strong US economic data.
3. Focus on potential BOJ policy decisions and their impact on yen strength.

Crude Oil:

1. Oil prices rebounded slightly from a six-week low due to positive Chinese economic signals and reduced US crude stockpiles.
2. Monitoring OPEC+ decisions and upcoming economic indicators will be important for oil price trends.
3. Long-term bearish outlook due to economic concerns in China and potential geopolitical developments.

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1. Extended losses due to geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data.
2. Market awaits further direction from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting.
3. Recent economic indicators have added to uncertainty about future rate hikes.

Gold:

1. Prices edged higher as safe-haven demand increased amid rising geopolitical tensions.
2. Market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on upcoming US economic data.
3. Technical indicators show potential for further consolidation before significant movements.

Crude Oil:

1. Prices slipped due to concerns over weakening global demand and increased non-OPEC supply.
2. Ongoing concerns about China’s economic recovery weigh on oil prices.
3. Upcoming OPEC+ meeting could provide further insights into production policies.

Japanese Yen:

1. Consolidated as markets await Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions.
2. Recent bullish moves driven by speculation about potential rate hikes and policy adjustments.
3. Investors should monitor BoJ statements for further trading signals.

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