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Most Volatile & Crazy Month? 6 replies

Anyone try using XAU/USD - XAU/EUR as proxy for EUR/USD? 4 replies

The most volatile pairs? 5 replies

the most volatile instrument 4 replies

Most volatile over the long term? 0 replies

Attachments: Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading
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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

Quoting papadas
{quote} thank you Ryu for clarifying it. maybe was not expressing the idea correctly. What I meant with limit>market and limit<market was low and high volume. Thank u however for the clarification. Apart from that are the other statements “correct” or not really . btw thank you for sharing the resource on orderbook and volume . It is really helpful
Limit orders are wishes. I wish to buy at X price, I wish to sell at X price.
They are like goods in Mercadona. Customers with money are market orders. They come to the supermercado and buy goods.
If the prices are good there are a lot of customers and a lot of trades. The volume (turnover) is big.
Also there are some "gambling agreements". Like "if some will buy this apple at X price you have you buy 1000 apples at that price too". This is stops.
So people with money came, but some lost the game and bought 1000 apples and there are no more apples at that price in the shop.

That's why when people say that "market is manipulated" it looks like nonsense. There is no need to manipulate it. Just calculate everything and buy/sell in right moment, because 99.99% of "traders" around are just degen gamblers with fancy colored lines and talks about correct trader's mood (but with zero math knowledge).

About all other statements. Just remember this:

1. Trade only when volume is high. Because in this case the chance that price will jumps hard away from you is minimal.
2. Trade only when average candle size is big. Because the bigger the average distance the higher the chance to close the trade in profit.
3. Trade only cheap assets. The cheaper the asset more free margin you have, less risk. Less risk = more profits overall.

This like first step filtering. After your trade passed it then you can apply all other things like orderflow and orderbook data and so on.

This is Jan23 live stats:
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Trading using rules above.
Observer effect
Guys, I'm playing with docker now. Who knows how to use it? I'm running docker-compose but it runs as root somehow. So docker desktop don't show anything and vscode can't attach to live session too (because vscode also runs as non-root)

Who can help me a little to clean the mess?


UPD: FIXED (few hours later)

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That I call "THE POWER OF COMMUNITY"


One guy is my discord chat just told me how to fix that issue. Now my docker container runs under user and my docker desktop shows it.
Now I can load it to my vscode and proceed coding my bot version 5.
When I'll finish I'll upload it to github.
Observer effect
My trading dashboard looks crazy now
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Now I'm using ultra fast ClickHouse in-memory database to save real-time live trades

We are going FASTER and HARDER!!!
Observer effect
I have create new simple bot. It use simple moving average. If the price higher it will open the long. If lower than short. Of course you can change ema to sma, or LWMA or any you like and change the logic (for example open long when under the MA and so on).

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The main purpose of this code is to show for to get more than 200 candles of data. Bybit has limit max 200. So in this code you can set any MA length you want.

p.s. Unfortunately I can't post link to my github here, because greedy losers start to complain that I'm promoting something (but I'm not, all code is free). So you can try google it.

This project is for informational and educational purposes only. You should not construe this information or any other material as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or offer by us or any third party provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. If you intend to use real money, use it at your own risk. Under no circumstances will we be responsible or liable for any claims, damages, losses, expenses, costs or liabilities of any kind, including but not limited to direct or indirect damages for loss of profits.
Observer effect
How to trade 3-in-a-row?

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1. Set TF to 15m and lower. It is not good to set higher TFs.

2. Wait for green triangle appear (for short) or dark orange (for long).

3. Open the position and wait until ma order will change. Then you can start closing your position.
Observer effect
I have created new indicator for TradingView - MA Order. It helps to detect trend and "mixed areas" - to avoid entries when there is no trend (it is risky).
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Free TradingView account allows to use 3 indicators max at once. So you can add 3 moving averages, for example. Here you have 8 (ma3 low, ma3 high, ma6 low, ma6 high, ma33 close, ma60 close, ma120 close and ma240 close). And only 1 slot of 3 will be used. If you want the indi please PM me I'll give it to you. It is totally free of course.

P.S. Also if you check the source code you can easy change simple moving average to exponential for example. Or you can add more MAs, or remove some, or change the length, colors and so on. It is pretty easy to understand how it works.
Observer effect
Can anyone explain a range expansion move? When does it happen, why does happen and how does it happen.
#IDDQD Return Today: -0.2%
Quoting Ferna
Can anyone explain a range expansion move? When does it happen, why does happen and how does it happen.
Easy my friend. First we have to understand what candle is.
Candle is a convention, a contract. We say that open is the value of the first second, close it the value of second #59, high is the highest value between and low is the lowest.
But what we can see here is the average candle size. Let's measure it in percentage. For example it is 0.25%. Okay, good. And now it is 1.5%
Wow. Why?
Because we have limit orders in the orderbook and hidden stops there too. And also we have market orders that use limit orders from the orderbook to fill. Also they trigger stops and they use limit orders to fill too, double the effect let's say. That' why expansion happened. Remember we talked how candle forms? Not the distance between open/close, high/low is wider.

Why range expansion happened? Because when price was in range stops were placing higher and lower. And when the density of the stops become good then big player start to hit market buy/sell button to trigger stops. Because stops are free fuel for big player. Free money to push the price to desired level.
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Easy my friend. First we have to understand what candle is. Candle is a convention, a contract. We say that open is the value of the first second, close it the value of second #59, high is the highest value between and low is the lowest. But what we can see here is the average candle size. Let's measure it in percentage. For example it is 0.25%. Okay, good. And now it is 1.5% Wow. Why? Because we have limit orders in the orderbook and hidden stops there too. And also we have market orders that use limit orders from the orderbook to fill....
Okay cool,i thought of it as a herd of traders trying to ride the wave up, but the big money are already long many pips ago.
Since everybody, thus with (old) positions are long, and now the new players also long, there are no new people to go long = everybody is long. And since there isn't any new people coming in to continue the move up, the professionals start selling and they have much bigger positions, so they sell em little by little causing market to go sideways and now and then do a smaller upswing to lure in a few other suckers, when they are sure there are enough smaller players long they just sell it all and let the market dip, after adding some shorts too maybe?.

But how can big players see density of stops? i thought only broker could see the stop-loss.
#IDDQD Return Today: -0.2%
Quoting Ferna
But how can big players see density of stops? i thought only broker could see the stop-loss.
If you have 199 999 lots on the market, but there are 200 000 - then how many lots not yours? You can't see stops because you have 1 lot size, but big player for example has 90% of the orders on the market. So it is not a problem to understand how many order are greedy stupid degen gambler's orders. That's why orderbook data is not the data you can rely on. Because there can be 90% of big player orders, so it all fake. It can remove it in few milliseconds and smash your position triggering your stop order.
Big player use limit orders to stop the movement or to create a range. It place the wall higher and lower not allowing small retail traders to eat it and trigger stops higher and lower. But when big player will decide that there are enough liquidity around, then it remove self limit orders and hit buy/sell market button to remove limit orders and trigger stops. When stops triggered then there is no more need of spending money. Stops will do it for you. They will eat more and more limit orders and trigger more and more stops. And the price will jump to desired level. When it came there then big player will put limit orders wall to stop the movement and start the "sale".
Observer effect
BTW I have created new free indi. It is very simple.
It check what was the highest high and the lowest low for example 240 candles back (you can set any you like)

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The key is when price hit it then you trade countertrend

So you can create a bot (or trade manually) using this rules:

if ask > highest_high then go short
if bid < lowest_low go long

In most cases it works like a charm. Just go short on the top and then go long at the bottom.

But sometimes, rare, price jumps hard. People ask me what to do then?

Easy in fact. Let me show you it step by step.

1. Place you entry here

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it will be triggered and you position appear. Now you have to check the distance to the lowest_low. Distance from your position to LL:


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It is 5.97%, so add 5.97% higher your position and place additional order with the same size higher. This way

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Now magic. How you think what will be lowest price in few hours?
Correct. It will be EXACTLY like you new entry point - between.


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Exit here immediately. In average you will have 2-3 chances to exit (check the chart, price always come back to that level 2-3 times).

if you greedy and believe that RRR works, you can set any TP you like. But no one cares about your dreams and about how much you want to earn. You will earn 10 times in a row and then the situation like this happened. You must be ready for that and forget all the shit. All you need is to close your position with min profit (or even with small loss) when it came to your position.
Observer effect
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Okay cool,i thought of it as a herd of traders trying to ride the wave up, but the big money are already long many pips ago. Since everybody, thus with (old) positions are long, and now the new players also long, there are no new people to go long = everybody is long. And since there isn't any new people coming in to continue the move up, the professionals start selling and they have much bigger positions, so they sell em little by little causing market to go sideways and now and then do a smaller upswing to lure in a few other suckers,...
Why do you think of that upside down?

The market has to make a decision which way to go, that decision is based on the imbalance of Resting orders sitting on the books. These orders may be real or may be fake - it doesn't matter. There is at least a dozen US based firms Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or Renaissance Technologies just to names a few who run HFT Algo's that act like Market Makers that are always attacking Resting orders all the time. Some of these orders they attack may even be from a office down their corridor or Larry accross in 51st Street - but attack is what they are programmed to do. Then you have small time retail traders like RickM who sits on a brown computer chair at the back of a spare bedroom in his pyamias also attacking Resting orders and hoping to get lucky with his wife if the $$$$ comes in.

We both want the same thing, an imbalance of the order book real or fake - who cares a toss.

In a Bullish trend, new traders are actually placing Short limit orders on the books - they are Selling not Buying. It doesn't matter if Goldman Sachs in their flash office in 200 West Street, or the guy in pymaias from Brisbane is long - not reverant.

We are both just attacking Short Resting Orders for very small gains - probably over 50% of all profits dragged out of the markets is by trades lasting only a few seconds. We control direction, the value is made in the office above them with their long term positional traders rolling with the trend but its still the Market Maker traders causing the markets to move and providing 70% of the liquidity to the markets (ok I add fuck all liquidiy ha ha ZERO but you get the picture)

Resting Orders provide the liquidity which generally runs against the trend and the money is made by attacking these orders, the bonus is we trip a stop cascade event and really get a good winfall.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
True or false: probability is low that price will spend much time in zones that has already been ”cleared” today again.
Price goes through these zones, or spends less time in them than before.
if price goes to limitorder bias at end of market and ends up in a zone that has already been ”cleared” odds are that it will jump to the next uncleared zone.
#IDDQD Return Today: -0.2%
Quoting Ferna
True or false: probability is low that price will spend much time in zones that has already been ”cleared” today again. Price goes through these zones, or spends less time in them than before. if price goes to limitorder bias at end of market and ends up in a zone that has already been ”cleared” odds are that it will jump to the next uncleared zone.
False

Ryuryu and myself have tried to prove that they’re is very little liquidity on a chart at any one time. Most liquidity sits close to price because market makers add liquidity only as required.
70% of liquidity on EURUSD right now at 12.43am sits within 9 pips either side of spread.

My point is big players don’t leave liquidity on a chart, they use it for other business activities and use their HFT bots to re enter the market when required.

Basically there’s nothing out there except a few stop pools which we can’t see anyway.

Thats my 2 cents worth
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting Ferna
True or false: probability is low that price will spend much time in zones that has already been ”cleared” today again. Price goes through these zones, or spends less time in them than before. if price goes to limitorder bias at end of market and ends up in a zone that has already been ”cleared” odds are that it will jump to the next uncleared zone.
There are no probability and there are no zones. Market orders move the market. If there will be a lot of free fuel called stop orders in your "zone" then big player will return and wipe it again and again. No one will spend money for "probability". They calculate every cent and every 0.01% move. They 100% sure what they do, how and when.
Observer effect
Quoting RickM
{quote} Why do you think of that upside down? The market has to make a decision which way to go, that decision is based on the imbalance of Resting orders sitting on the books. These orders may be real or may be fake - it doesn't matter. There is at least a dozen US based firms Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or Renaissance Technologies just to names a few who run HFT Algo's that act like Market Makers that are always attacking Resting orders all the time. Some of these orders they attack may even be from a office down their corridor or Larry accross...
Resting order and short limit order is the same?
#IDDQD Return Today: -0.2%
Quoting RickM
{quote} False Ryuryu and myself have tried to prove that they’re is very little liquidity on a chart at any one time. Most liquidity sits close to price because market makers add liquidity only as required. 70% of liquidity on EURUSD right now at 12.43am sits within 9 pips either side of spread. My point is big players don’t leave liquidity on a chart, they use it for other business activities and use their HFT bots to re enter the market when required. Basically there’s nothing out there except a few stop pools which we can’t see anyway. Thats...
How do i calculate motivated value for a currency? Which limits are given by the central banks to the smaller banks?
how does central bank earn money for the state to spend on for example military?
sry tell me if i ask too much
#IDDQD Return Today: -0.2%
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Resting order and short limit order is the same?
Resting orders is just a general name given to limit orders.

Limit orders however could be “fill or kill” or many other limit types so it’s best just to use the term Resting Orders to avoid describing the exact order type it may be.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting Ferna
{quote} How do i calculate motivated value for a currency? Which limits are given by the central banks to the smaller banks? how does central bank earn money for the state to spend on for example military? sry tell me if i ask too much
Your’’e asking the wrong guy, never worked for a bank
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting ryuryu
BTW I have created new free indi. It is very simple. It check what was the highest high and the lowest low for example 240 candles back (you can set any you like) {image} The key is when price hit it then you trade countertrend So you can create a bot (or trade manually) using this rules: if ask > highest_high then go short if bid < lowest_low go long In most cases it works like a charm. Just go short on the top and then go long at the bottom. But sometimes, rare, price jumps hard. People ask me what to do then? Easy in fact. Let me show you it...
Looks good Ryan, I need to find time to investigate this strategy
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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