DAX Futures September 2021

In your experience can you guess or estimate
(a) Does Friday Close give any clue for next weel Monday gap?
(b) If yes, taking it up Friday . why?
Is to pull it down.on Monday?
If no, want to rush to.ATH?
(C) if yes, what could be the pip size of the gap?
I find on.each Monday weekend gaps do strike.

a. ther's no a rule about friday close, but lower close on friday, specially exaggerated lower close, brought a good recovery on next monday, but not necessarily with a gap up on monday. I talked many times on my journals this typical peak down on fridays and a strong recovery during next mondays.
Then a peak low, a sharp peak low on wed or thursday leaded to higher close on friday. But again, it's not a rule, sometimes happens.

b. and yes, sometimes or often a higher close on friday pushed up prices on gap up monday only to start a sell off day.

c. I don't know, but if I had to bet, better to calculate in %, let's say 0,25% or 0,5%, even 0,75%, but it's only an assumption.

Anyway I underline 2 important points you better take into account;

1. we are in full of rollover weeks, so usual suspects only want a specific price for nex friday and they'll get it, whatever it takes!
So if they want 15900 for instance they will get it, so an higher close the week before could be crucial to clean the road ahead.

2. I posted after last wed the chart here below: prices not able to break down 1st retracement level (515) lead to 730 zone again, no way!
and that was the price, more or less, on late friday after hours in Europe.

Thank you for sharing your views.
I guess it is going to be a cocktail of rollover and expiry of the options creating dances in the coming week until Friday. Good opportunity for
option buyers.

2. Options sentiment - Bulls betting strong. Not sure if Buyers outnumber sellers. Open Interest gives no indication about buying and selling. In Germany, if market makers have sold those options, they will try to take the market down. If buyers have done these transactions for hedging or as part of spreads, they are not going to go away.

Option speculators, like me, will get out the moment market makers start cleaning up to avoid payouts to the buyers. As a speculator I am prejudiced in assuming most of the selling is done by the market makers and that they will bring down the prices closer to the buyer's strike price or less than that, so that the buyers will lose by time decay or may lose the entire premium paid if the price goes down below the strike price.


3. Calls (bulls) outnumber Puts (bears)


4. Bulls optimistic

5. VIX is all about "implied" volatility and measures the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days.
Unlike Options, it does not use a Black Scholes formula to calculate it.
Have you used Vix analysis before? I have never done. I don't have the practical experience of any vix product to share.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

VIX as I see is saying Be prepared for short covering.

Good week for DAX 30 options buying speculators

A 10-minute complete course on buying of options requiring no understanding of Greeks, Formulas, or funny terms like butterfly, iron condor, or strangles

Capital required: Euro 500.

If you think the price will go down in just one day buy ODAX Put at a strike at or very close to the current futures price. Let us say the strike price is 15,700.

3 scenarios

1. If your view fails, you will lose time decay substantially. You will not lose entire money because the options will expire on Friday.

2. If your view wins and the market does drop but not to a big extent substantially, you may not make any money in spite of your directional view being correct. In that case, you are free to take chance the next day.

3. If your view of a big drop prevails, and if the index drops by 100 pips, your profit will be at least 50 pips. Example If you have paid 100 pips for 15700 (assuming you bought a Put Option with this strike price), you will sell it back to the market at 150 pips. 50% profit in a day

4. Buying in the money options means you are speculating on two fronts

(a) On the direction of the index
(b) On an option being bought on a discount gaining more value as the futures price keeps dropping

In options term, futures is called the underlying, The market or spot price is called At the Money. Your forecast price is Strike Price. When you buy options at a higher price than the spot price, you are paying an extra premium (called extrinsic value) more for speculating on the spot futures price (which starts counting from 0 of intrinsic value).

If you buy Put at strike price of 15,750 (spot price is 15,700) that means you are expecting to get in future extra 50 pips by investing 25 pips, if the Put price goes down and hits your strike price.

In other words, you are paying 25 pips extrinsic value for gaining 25 intrinsic value based on the market price of the underlying futures.

5. Buying a lottery ticket: If you think the price will crash to 15,300, (your strike or forecast price) you buy the Put option for about 25 pips at a 75% discount to the current market price of 100 pips premium. At the strike price of 15,300, the market has valued the probability of this price being touched at 10% (in options terminology it is called Delta) but the option sellers are not taking chance and expecting 25 pips (or 25%) to be paid for an option whose probability of hitting is 10% only. It is not cheap but I have a strong view that the market will.drop. The logical reason for an overvalued option.

If the index market price drops by 400 pips to 15,300, then your option will gain a big increase in premium value because the probability has jumped from 10% to 50% while there are 4 more days for the option to expire. You can expect to get paid 100 pips for an option bought at 25 pips - a net profit of 75 pips or 300% gain (trading costs very small and are ignored for calculation purpose)

Similar analysis need to be done for buying of Call if you have a bullish view?

15720 KEY LEVEL for today morning for DAX CASH INDEX.

Prices above will lead to an accelaration towards new ATH, otherwise 1st station 68..zone, 66..zone.
Until 630/620 zone, uptrend will remain in place.

US FED next wed + Quaduple witching expiration next friday main event of the week.

EURO 2021 FOOTBALL, my brief comment so far.

TURKEY: can't park the bus whole match....they need play football, not only in defence. Zero serious attempt to score a goal, very poor performance.
ITALY: no real forwards, but many players had chances to score. Always on the attack, even on 3-0, great Mancini mindset. We'll see on real opponents.

WALES: Bale and Ramsey are not the same anymore, only youngster James a real danger. But team is solid and united, difficult to beat.
SWITZERLAND: not bad the attack, while defense seems not so strong. Lost the chance to beat Wales, next match almost crucial.

DENMARK:great match until Eriksen serious injury, after they were not on the pitch, and it is understandable.
FINLAND: a real team, each one working for the team. They have great chance to pass 1st leg.

BELGIUM: Lukaku after Inter Conte seasons is now almost unstoppable, one of the strongest forward in the world. But the opponent team was very poor.
RUSSIA: disappointing performance, very poor and no real attempts to score a goal. Next match they could even be out of the competition.

ENGLAND: solid team,with great players. Kane great central forward, and youngsters unstoppable Grealish on the bench show the high class players Southgate.
CROATIA; after some years, current generation seems tired and not ready to high rpofirl competition. They need fresh blood.But it will difficult to find a new Modric.

AUSTRIA: they had to win, and they won. Concrete and ready to score when they had the chance. Good for now.
MACEDONIA: at some point they deserve not to loose the game, but when you have the chance and you do not score, you easily loose the match.

NETHERLANDS; they were able to win a difficult match against a difficult opponent. But defense showed some weakness, De Ligt must recover soon from the injury.
UKRAINE; probably they deserved not to loose the match, but the strongest player they have from MAN CITY, made a tremendous mistake on last Netherlands goal.

buy orders placed below and well below 700 zone...we'll see after 9CET.

703.8, last friday high, gap to cover at the official open for DAX CASH INDEX

750 2shorts triggered now

new ATH for DAX, stable pricea bove 750 will lead to 79../810 zone.

770 added 2 shorts now

782 added 3 positions shorts now

I have now 7 DAX CFds short 770.

800 zoen and above placed FDXM SEPT short

additionals DAX CFds 79..85..zone placed

790 triggered another short

I hold now 8 DAX CFDs 772,5.

805 added 3 shorts now

I hold now 11 DAX CFDs short 781,5.

prices will not go down soon, they will cook as many shorts they can, me included.

always gap opean at 704, but it could wait days....

they probably want a higher price for next friday

777 now reduced for 4 positions