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  • Post #601
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  • Aug 27, 2021 7:59pm Aug 27, 2021 7:59pm
  •  TimeTells
  • Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 1,907 Posts
Spot on BW, spot on Pumi, spot on RickM imo.


By using an indi, or TA, or FA to predict WHICH way price is headed is for, what …

To getting in PRIOR to a definite directional confirmation.

Maybe for the thrill of having a crystal ball?


But for the trader, why not just WAIT. Until price shows its direction. It HAS to at some point.

(While price might spike, fake, flip, tight range itself or consolidate etc and any other tricks it can, until it delivers direction)


And when price delivers its direction (confirmation), the beauty is that price IS then going SOMEWHERE.
(Well at least it has for pretty much the past 13 years that I could see).


Once price IS going to its ‘somewhere’, pick up your extra pips then, rather than by some pseudo “prediction” before the actual event.

Past data has shown often (well, to me that is) that price can easily go UP against a ‘down’ news or political statement’.
OR vice versa (and sometimes both up & down, in the same period lol).


Easier (for me) to just wait till price tips its hand.

And for price to move to its ‘somewhere’ it has to ultimately tip its hand. It HAS to.
(For me that can often be during the later NY session when I am already in the cot for the night)

Traders who get caught in the wrong direction have often just entered ‘direction’ too early.

imho that is

GU a classic move last night, as BW said, 100 pips. Algo repeating level to next directional algo repeating level.

.
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  • Post #602
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  • Aug 27, 2021 8:33pm Aug 27, 2021 8:33pm
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Quoting bilal1947
Disliked
{quote} Hi BW nothing to loose i am already working hard for my living, and no harm if am able to master this forex industry for a later time, and i enjoying this learning journey. i would like you to put up the chart and explain because what i know, i already know, lets see what you wanna highlight, and please do not forget to mention your entries if you would take any as per your system. lets open up a a bit on the system if your okay. regards bilal
Ignored
From Asia low the market moved up 65% of adr before Powell's speech.

Price hit the target 15mins later. You asked for the trade I took in NY session. After the high for the day is established I waited for the buying activity to subside then take the short entry expecting a quick plunge in price. I normally don't show my trades because the complain is that they look photoshopped, perhaps they are
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Happy trading everyone.
 
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  • Post #603
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  • Aug 27, 2021 8:53pm Aug 27, 2021 8:53pm
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Quoting Pumi
Disliked
News were used as an excuse... {image}
Ignored
If the retail trader relies on FA, the final push to target day high in 15mins. That's 15mins window to listen to the speech then at some point heard the keynote aspect of his dovish taper speech that indicate bearish dollar to execute a long entry.

Billal's question again,

Quoting bilal1947
Disliked
... a system which should explain me what ever side market moves: - does my system helps me identify that - once identified does it allow me to capitalize it or decided to stay sideline. otherwise i am on a failed system.
Ignored
Happy trading everyone.
 
1
  • Post #604
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  • Aug 27, 2021 9:04pm Aug 27, 2021 9:04pm
  •  GEfx
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,465 Posts
Quoting BWilliam
Disliked
{quote} From Asia low the market moved up 65% of adr before Powell's speech. Price hit the target 15mins later.
Ignored
A text of Powell's speech was released 15 minutes before he spoke, which was 7:00 am PST. I was reading reports of the dovish nature of his speech at 6:50 am. The market knew what was about to be said and they started trading it accordingly.

If anyone is interested in conspiracy theories, then I'd suggest investigating the timing of the 2 Fed govs who stoked the sell between 6 and 6:30 am. They helped create the dip just ahead of the big buy.
 
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  • Post #605
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  • Edited Aug 28, 2021 2:24pm Aug 27, 2021 9:35pm | Edited Aug 28, 2021 2:24pm
  •  bilal1947
  • Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 2,255 Posts
how i was looking at it, its good we are brainstorming. we need to gauge to the price momentum where it is heading and dont married to our overall narrative only then we can trade every move otherwise we must wait till it comes to our terms.

I was looking at it bearish from D1 but H4 was bullish and the breaker holds at 1.3680.

Like Rick has delta volume, it can be a moving average or 1m rsi Divergence, tma may be or anything which can guage price on 1-5min tf, sounds stupid though and i can be wrong. Or price action alone.
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Extend it out in Time !! Faith, Discipline, Patience, Prayers, Hard-work !!
 
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  • Post #606
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  • Aug 27, 2021 10:51pm Aug 27, 2021 10:51pm
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Quoting bilal1947
Disliked
how i was looking at it, its good we are brainstorming. we need to gauge to the price momentum where it is heading and dont married to our overall narrative only then we can trade every move otherwise we must wait till it comes to our terms. I was looking at it bearish from D1 but H4 was bullish and the breaker holds at 1.3680. Like Rick has delta volume, it can be a moving average or 1m rsi Divergence, tma may be or anything which can guage price on 1-5min tf, sounds stupid though and i can be wrong. {image}
Ignored
Thanks for your thoughts, it don't sound stupid and you are not wrong.

All of us use some form of tool to help us analyse the market. Behind the tools lies our core belief about the market. It can be economics, physics, math or whatever that we believe why and how the market move the way it does. Have we given enough thought to understand why we chose those specific tools? Choice of tools hence our belief or belief guide our choice of tools? Or have not given it a thought to connect them both? Do we truly understand the tool we use or so long as it works who cares?

Our belief include to what extent does a trader know about the future. What is possible, not fortune telling? That's why if we read the posts carefully there's this unmistakable voice of naysaying when this extent is breached.

So if I propose that price can be wrap in a time series model that can be extrapolated into the future, what's your belief about this proposal?

In Forex we tend to refer back to the past to what was in the last 100years. Why are we not looking at what's possible in 2021? Do we claim time stand still with no progress for this Forex business? That any suggestion of application of today's advancement is frowned upon. Strangely, only in Forex.
Happy trading everyone.
 
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  • Post #607
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  • Aug 27, 2021 10:54pm Aug 27, 2021 10:54pm
  •  moodybot
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 2,719 Posts
GU

GU long from broker time 23.08.2021 13:00 in my preferred timeframe H1 setting PFL.
Bus moved off collecting fares from Pax dropped off on the journey down.
End of shift bus driver returned to 1 x ADR up from PFL collecting more fares.
Driver continued after reading newspaper to pick up first Pax dropped off first from original journey down.
All Pax collected all fares paid.
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  • Post #608
  • Quote
  • Aug 27, 2021 10:55pm Aug 27, 2021 10:55pm
  •  moodybot
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 2,719 Posts
Thanks to all for their contribution this week.
 
1
  • Post #609
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 1:20am Aug 28, 2021 1:20am
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Quoting moodybot
Disliked
GU GU long from broker time 23.08.2021 13:00 in my preferred timeframe H1 setting PFL. Bus moved off collecting fares from Pax dropped off on the journey down. End of shift bus driver returned to 1 x ADR up from PFL collecting more fares. Driver continued after reading newspaper to pick up first Pax dropped off first from original journey down. All Pax collected all fares paid. {image}
Ignored
Hi Andy, our charts exactly the same.
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Happy trading everyone.
 
1
  • Post #610
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  • Aug 28, 2021 1:47am Aug 28, 2021 1:47am
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Big gonads from the champ Phil Ivey, Tiger Woods of poker.

Inserted Video
Happy trading everyone.
 
 
  • Post #611
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 2:19am Aug 28, 2021 2:19am
  •  giselle1723
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 321 Posts
What do you guys think about this daily cumulative delta?
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  • Post #612
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 2:39am Aug 28, 2021 2:39am
  •  moodybot
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 2,719 Posts
Quoting BWilliam
Disliked
{quote} Hi Andy, our charts exactly the same. {image}
Ignored
Hi J

Good to know that I'm in the ball park. or as George used to say, in the playground!
 
1
  • Post #613
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 4:56am Aug 28, 2021 4:56am
  •  RickM
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 1,838 Posts
Quoting giselle1723
Disliked
What do you guys think about this daily cumulative delta? {image}
Ignored
Hi giselle

Don't get me started or I will discuss delta till the cows need milking.
My opinion is the Daily chart offers no valid information to judge cumulative delta data.

Try looking at M5 or M15 as a viewpoint to better understand what is happening. I think its better to just study cumulative bar charts as they are easier to understand and trade.

Can I say that trading Cumulative Delta by itself isn't of much value unless you know how price is being manipulated. There is 15 methods to manipulate the market, my strategy involves establishing which method the big players are using tonight to make their profits.

Which one?

Look at the two charts on GBPUSD this week, one chart the big players were blocking price movement, and the other chart they were flooding the order book with delta 2 to 1 on one side of the ledger.

Cheers and sorry to bore readers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
 
6
  • Post #614
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 4:57am Aug 28, 2021 4:57am
  •  4for4
  • | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: 38737526 / 29052019 | 1,245 Posts
Quoting giselle1723
Disliked
What do you guys think about this daily cumulative delta? {image}
Ignored
I don’t use “delta” as my trading tool, but the daily chart clearly shows an uptrend is ongoing because we can identify two higher-and-higher supports (the highlights). So it’s a buy with 1.3679 as SL. Depending on your risk tolerance, calculate the EP and the lot-size using the mentioned SL as reference …
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(I prefer to wait for a correction toward the SL before planning a buy)
Market is not random but unpredictable
 
 
  • Post #615
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 5:14am Aug 28, 2021 5:14am
  •  RickM
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 1,838 Posts
I saw a trade recently today from a trader who once asked me if volume could nail a trade to the pip.

How about nail a exit to the pip.

If I could only find the elephant in the room, where to look.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
 
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  • Post #616
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:11pm Aug 28, 2021 8:29pm | Edited at 10:11pm
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Permutation formula is,

nPr = n! / (n-r)!

Assume r = 1,
nPr = 15! / (15-1)! = 15
Assume r = 2,
nPr = 15! / (15-2)! = 210
Assume r = 3,
nPr = 15! / (15-3)! = 2730

Summation nPr = nPr1+ nPr1 + nPr3 +...

And so on....

How likely the trader guess correctly the permutation of manipulation methods that's deployed on Monday?

This is why this Forex speculation business is similar to casino gambling. The difference between speculation and gambling is - the permutation for speculation is a large number, whereas the permutation for gambling is infinity. Is there a difference? yes and no it makes no difference.

A math problem can only be solved with a math solution, imo.
Happy trading everyone.
 
1
  • Post #617
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2021 10:51pm Aug 28, 2021 10:51pm
  •  BWilliam
  • Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 1,579 Posts
Although the permutation is a large number, the human mind naturally gravitates toward reducing a large number to a small number by whatever means. Read this thread to see how each trader based on their belief go through this natural instinctive reduction process with their selected methods by elimination.

This process reduces the large number to a A vs B scenario. Where A is more likely to occur than B. In this space and time when the trader sees only A and B the trader presses the button to execute his trade believing A is more likely to happen than B.

That's how the human mind work when traders stare at their chart looking for a solution. This explains why some members describe trading to be simple, it's either up or down...... in their mind. The reason why we read kiss.... Keep it simple stupid. This is the mind of a Forex trader. Repeated chart staring over 10,000hours and more created this mind in us.

Market makers are aware of this, use it to keep traders in this rabbit hole, attract more fresh blood to it. It's simple stupid. Simple manipulation of the mind just like George says.

Cheers
Happy trading everyone.
 
6
  • Post #618
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2021 1:06am Aug 29, 2021 1:06am
  •  giselle1723
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 321 Posts
Quoting RickM
Disliked
{quote} Hi giselle Don't get me started or I will discuss delta till the cows need milking. My opinion is the Daily chart offers no valid information to judge cumulative delta data. Try looking at M5 or M15 as a viewpoint to better understand what is happening. I think its better to just study cumulative bar charts as they are easier to understand and trade. Can I say that trading Cumulative Delta by itself isn't of much value unless you know how price is being manipulated. There is 15 methods to manipulate the market, my strategy involves establishing...
Ignored
Hi,RickM

Yes,I agree with you. Daily cumulative delta(long term), my point is that delta imbalance increases heavily within a swing movement,they move the price to the opposite direction to offset the delta imbalance. Once a imbalance is offset, a new swing starts. A imbalance offset frequently occurs at price structure point with volume exhaustion, absorption and bid/ask imbalance,maybe on any TF.
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  • Post #619
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2021 5:25am Aug 29, 2021 5:25am
  •  RickM
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 1,838 Posts
Quoting giselle1723
Disliked
{quote} Hi,RickM Yes,I agree with you. Daily cumulative delta(long term), my point is that delta imbalance increases heavily within a swing movement,they move the price to the opposite direction to offset the delta imbalance. Once a imbalance is offset, a new swing starts. A imbalance offset frequently occurs at price structure point with volume exhaustion, absorption and bid/ask imbalance,maybe on any TF. {image} {image} {image}
Ignored
Hi giselle

In theory that should be the case, but in reality the numbers we get from CME can totally hide the absorption and imbalance true values. Absorption occurs manly inside the order flow books which means on GBPUSD, we are talking only a 15 pip range. If we look at say a 1 hour inprint chart, we may miss THE MOMENT it actually occurs and therefore waste a great setup. Thats in my opinion of course for what its worth.

For example, GBPUSD shows the best absorption figures in my opinion on M3 to M5. If I look on higher timeframes, the signal may be long gone.

The GBPUSD M5 chart below I think shows absorption tops along with imbalance signals the best, the tops show perfect short setups and there is still time to get in and make some great profits.
I took two trades at the top of the first move, but as I am mainly a EURUSD man, didn't follow it any further.

PM me and we can both jump into my server channel (no commercial interests) and have a real arm wrestle.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
 
2
  • Post #620
  • Quote
  • Aug 29, 2021 10:32am Aug 29, 2021 10:32am
  •  deafpostman
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 66 Posts
Quoting RickM
Disliked
{quote} Immortality I am going to live for ever. My son was born on the 13th I was born on the 13th My father was born on the 13th and he is 92 and still an active sportsman You guys are going to have to put up with my shit for centuries.
Ignored
What are the odds of all 3 born on the 13th., Good for your pops to be active at 92
 
 
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