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Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

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Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #853,461
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:27pm Feb 7, 2025 4:13pm | Edited 4:27pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Just as an update, that short yielded me 55 pips today. I hope you find that cutting edge system that makes you consistently profitable.
What % ROI did those 55 pips gain you after including all prior stop losses, if any, since your last profitable trade?
Please calculate your ROI based on your whole trading account balance, especially if you didn't have open trades on other currency pairs at the same time.
Or maybe you could post your total pips won and total pips lost for the last day or two or for the last week and then calculate your ROI based on what your account balance was before you started like at the beginning of this week.
I'll try to keep y'all updated on my progress.
You cannot fail if you never give up.
the president may have a coronary from this TIME magazine cover

elon sitting in trumps chair behind the resolute desk LOL

I may cut back some of my longs sunday cause next week gona be chaotic with trumps ego hurt this way..who knows what he'll do or tweet...he's already threatening japan with tariffs LOL


oh hell..ill do it now

just closed half at 2409...ill buy em back on a breakout over the neckline...yes I'm chicken and going into the bushes cause trumpy gona be grumpy all weekend LOL
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short trump and go long the deepstate
GBP is always bullish until it isn’t. Clearly, the weakening of the US Dollar will continue until it reaches the top of its trading range for many months ahead, along the last observable trading range within a single timeframe, one chart, unless an unexpected event occurs. Trump and Elon are good for business, but not good for strengthening the US Dollar. The middle zone is always noisy, with ups and downs.

Lel.
The Markets just don't care what you believe
United Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025
The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate job creation. Inflation, meanwhile, remains a problem at 2.5% YoY, with a worrying monthly uptick of 0.3%, suggesting price pressures are still present. Projections indicate inflation could reach 3.7% by Q3 2025, raising fears of stagflation—where inflation rises while growth remains weak.
The UK’s external position remains a major concern, with a trade deficit of £4.76B and a current account deficit of -£18.1B (-3.3% of GDP), making the economy highly dependent on foreign capital. Government debt has climbed to 97.6% of GDP, leaving little room for fiscal stimulus, while persistent budget deficits (-4.4% of GDP) suggest potential austerity ahead. Business sentiment has collapsed to -47, the worst since the COVID-era, while both manufacturing (PMI: 48.3) and services (PMI: 50.8) show little to no growth. Consumer confidence has also fallen sharply to -22, leading to weaker retail sales, which declined by 0.3% in December. High corporate (25%) and personal (45%) tax rates continue to discourage investment and limit disposable income, further weighing on domestic demand.
Conclusion
The UK economy is facing a tough road ahead, with no clear signs of recovery. Growth is stagnant, inflation remains a problem, and both businesses and consumers are losing confidence. With government debt near 100% of GDP and no fiscal space for stimulus, the burden falls on the BoE, which has already started cutting rates. However, these cuts have not yet helped the economy, and with inflation expected to rise, the central bank may find itself trapped. Given the weak fundamentals, the outlook for the British pound remains bearish in the near term.
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Dancing with Ghosts: Whispers of the VoidPool
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} Now you get the picture. That's exactly what I was talking about. As far as win rate is concerned, that depends on exercising proper intelligence, experience, patience, and discipline. Practice makes perfect. So yes, 55% win rate should be bottom line as an amateur. And since you're projecting 1 trade per day, and at 55% win rate, that's 0.6% ROI per day (or per trade) or basically finishing a +5% win cycle every 8 days or so, now what if I can average 2-5 trades per day at 55% win rate? That would increase the compounding growth dramatically...
I've used old template, forgot to fix days to trades.
This was done for 1000 trades due to simplicity and, I would say, this is the correct way to state the problem in this case - bc of -4.761%.
You have constant, desired outcome for a day - there is nothing to model -- initial_$*1.05^n
So think of it as, equity of size S will be achieved after n trades with given probability values.
How these trades distributed in time Literally, it could be any. I don't feel I'm ready to write a nested Monte Carlo simulations for a post on FF

Let's make an example:
5%^200 days = 1 729 260
How many trades you need to take to reach this value having 0.55 : 0.45 probabilities
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0.6 : 0.4
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But it's just a model, not even a back-test nor a strategy. I have strong doubts that this will work in reality. Exponential equity curve of that scale is kinda utopia in trading.
Anyway, O. was my first broker, wish you to bankrupt them
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I've used old template, forgot to fix days to trades. This was done for 1000 trades due to simplicity and, I would say, this is the correct way to state the problem in this case - bc of -4.761%. You have constant, desired outcome for a day - there is nothing to model -- initial_$*1.05^n So think of it as, equity of size S will be achieved after n trades with given probability values. How these trades distributed in time Literally, it could be any. I don't feel I'm ready to write a nested Monte Carlo simulations for a post...
Very impressive. -91.86% drawdown and -71.86% drawdown in 1000 simulations. What if it's only, for example, 67 simulations (67 trades), max 3% a day, or 3 trades? Lel
The Markets just don't care what you believe
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} Yes, so Nubcake focuses on demeaning me and riling me up in whatever way possible when I'm simply minding my own business. So, if he would leave me alone, that would mean a lot to me.
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.". This emphasizes the idea that we cannot control external events, but we can control our reactions to them, which is the core principle of Stoic philosophy.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
"You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." This quote reminds us that our true power lies in controlling our reactions, not external circumstances.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
"None of them can hurt me. No one can implicate me in ugliness. Nor can I feel angry at my relative, or hate him. We were born to work together like feet, hands, and eyes, like the two rows of teeth, upper and lower. To obstruct each other is unnatural. To feel anger at someone, to turn your back on him: these are obstructions.” — Marcus Aurelius
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #853,470
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 8, 2025 8:20am Feb 7, 2025 9:34pm | Edited Feb 8, 2025 8:20am
Quoting MoneyPrinte
United Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025 The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate...
I have one indicator called wisdom, which might be correct. I want to know the amount of M2 money supply in circulation, presented in a table for GBP and USD overall for the last 4 months, indicating which one shows inflation and which one shows deflation.

Hello Deepsek or Chat-GPT with reasoning:
(Some Deviation)

Note: The data above is illustrative, based on the latest available figures from Trading Economics. For official and more detailed data, please refer to the respective central banks' reports. Or we can look at the TradingView data for Economic-USM2 or Economic-GBM2 for the data.
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The Markets just don't care what you believe
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Very impressive. -91.86% drawdown and -71.86% drawdown in 1000 simulations. What if it's only, for example, 67 simulations (67 trades), max 3% a day, or 3 trades? Lel
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ DD takes the worst equity curve
One of those that goes deep from initial values but then grows, so these very high% actually from $100
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ DD takes the worst equity curve One of those that goes deep from initial values but then grows, so these very high% actually from $100
That’s what we sometimes regret about the normal distribution if the data isn’t really large enough for many traders because -90% means I would have to recover a loss of 900% in the future.
The Markets just don't care what you believe
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I have one indicator called wisdom, which might be correct. I want to know the amount of M2 money supply in circulation, presented in a table for GBP and USD overall for the last 4 months, indicating which one shows inflation and which one shows deflation. Hello Deepsek or Chat-GPT with reasoning: (Some Deviation) Note: The data above is illustrative, based on the latest available figures from Trading Economics. For official and more detailed data, please refer to the respective central banks' reports. Or we can look at the TradingView data...
This looks really good! Perhaps adding a bullish/bearish sentiment indicator in the table could make it even easier to understand, especially for those of us who aren't economists. Just a suggestion
Dancing with Ghosts: Whispers of the VoidPool
Bear market has a fine grip
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Quoting Zebi
a close over that boe candle is bullish but a close above yesterday's open at 2475 on a day like a rejection of the boe rate cut is extremely bullish but I'm holding a full boat of longs so ill only add from momentum when price breakouts of that invH+S neckline I posted yesterday or day before my TDS sense keeps tingling stronger the more stupid shit trump says about gaza and tariffs so keep shorting the dollar {image}
My politics view comment on Gaza, Palestine:
The problem is, thus stupid Trump, a real big Germo, now directly pays influencers to attack and kill those defending Palestine, in any forum and media. Trump never stops selling bombs, so others can kill. What he does is really shit, and he's often suffered from mental illness in many things. I’ll just tell you one secret in science, modern genetics: the people of Palestine, especially its Christians, are the true heirs of the true Jews, Jesus in the past. Not the people of Israel today, who are mostly Ashkenazi Jews (from Germany, Turkey, and Ukraine) in the modern era. Good luck with your choices, my friend. When you know you know and may be sometime all know.
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The Markets just don't care what you believe
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I've used old template, forgot to fix days to trades. This was done for 1000 trades due to simplicity and, I would say, this is the correct way to state the problem in this case - bc of -4.761%. You have constant, desired outcome for a day - there is nothing to model -- initial_$*1.05^n So think of it as, equity of size S will be achieved after n trades with given probability values. How these trades distributed in time Literally, it could be any. I don't feel I'm ready to write a nested Monte Carlo simulations for a post...
Very good. Thank you! So, from what I gleaned from your model is that 55% win rate gives me an average of 0.61% ROI per trade, and if I would average 4 trades per day, I would make +5% ROI every 2 days, then I could finish 2,000 trades in 2 years, netting me $1.83 Million.
And at 60% win rate, I would gain an average of 1.09% ROI per trade, and at 4 trades per day, would allow me to make almost +5% ROI per trading day, so I can basically gain $1.73 Million in 1 year instead of 2 years, essentially halving the time.
Thank you so much for your effort!
I do understand that in real life, this type of consistency is the stuff of dreams, but it doesn't stop me from trying.
So, what I do is figure out how many +5% win cycles it takes for me to gain $1 Million from my current $200 account balance, which is 176 cycles if I don't withdraw any of the profit, or 352 cycles if I withdraw half the profit after each win cycle is completed, and then simply complete those cycles as fast as I can. Sometimes I could complete multiple win cycles in 1 day, and other times, it could take multiple days, and even weeks to complete 1 win cycle. That's real life.
But keep in mind that practice makes perfect and our brains are fully capable of learning and adapting to this type of system in order to make it more efficient and profitable over time.
The key here is to stay with this system regardless. By steadfastly staying with this system, not deviating from it, your brain will be able to develop a firm habit of recognizing the right opportunities to open trades more often without getting the stoploss hit, hence increasing your win rate and reducing the time/days it takes to finish a +5% win cycle.
I have found that by allowing myself flexibility to improvise my trading style and manually closing trades or moving stop loss and TP based on current price action, it always upsets the way my brain comprehends risk and efficiency. So then I get confused when the price action ends up behaving different than I envisioned and so I screw it up and end up losing my efficiency and win rate.
So, let's stick to this system regardless, and see what happens.
I have a question, what did Oanda do to you that makes you want to see them bankrupted?
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting MoneyPrinte
United Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025 The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate...
Thanks so much.

This is the real acceptable standard used in fundamental analysis for the purpose of taken long term position in the market.

This position has been printed on the chart and the key point of entry marked by me as Jackpot.

GU daily trend is bearish but resisted by a weekly support. The current retracement which may be truncated at 1.27xx is just a pullback to touch critical Elliot wave point.

Goodluck to all who can spot the print.

.
Market Structure is the King.....
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} "It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.". This emphasizes the idea that we cannot control external events, but we can control our reactions to them, which is the core principle of Stoic philosophy.
I am aware of this principle of being responsible for my own reaction to all that happens to me, and I do try to abide by it, yet there are times when someone is capable of triggering me beyond my control, which is mental and emotional abuse. Usually I can hold my temper. It's almost impossible to trigger me. But it's very obvious that Nubcake does this deliberately for the purpose to cause harm. Such a person is a criminal at heart and should not be allowed to freely roam public forums such as this one to do as he pleases. Hence I do retain the right and responsibility to do and say what it takes to get that abuser off this forum for the purpose of saving myself and everyone else here from being impacted by his abuse in the future.
I did report him twice yesterday after he provoked me deliberately, and I have not seen him here since. Here's to hoping he's gone for good.
In that case, I give my thanks to the current administration overseeing this forum.
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting Forgediron
Bear market has a fine grip {image}
.

Yes, I am still holding my short. It is so obvious ....

Forge! you are invited to give your contribution on (GBP/USD UPDATE)Billionaire's Club.

Your zoning is exceptional and similar to some of my processes...

My forum is an interactive one where practical live charts are given, and questions are asked in real time before it is printed on chart....

We can all grow together by sharing our experiences.
Market Structure is the King.....
Quoting MoneyPrinte
United Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025 The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate...
MoneyPrinte! you are invited to (GBP/USD UPDATE)Billionaire's Club Forum.

Your contributions using fundamental analysis is invaluable.

Thanks.
Market Structure is the King.....
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