Right going to put my views on the Aussie here:
These are the things that concern the Aussie:
Employment, inflation and growth (according to the latest cash rate meeting)
Inflation is going the right way (although missing its target) and employment figures took a hit this month. Remember these are lagging.
The target employment rate is 4.5% but despite 3 recent cuts - its still at 5.3%.
The latest figures are not good reading
The economy forward looking indicators do point to slight turn in things
Consumer and business sentiment has improved slightly.
From reading the latest release on this:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/...cy-2019-11.pdf
The important bit is: "Given the outlook, the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the medium-term inflation target over time".
So things at the moment point to definite easing from the RBA.
They have said negative rates are off the table- and the max cut will be to .25% (according to Lowe's recent speech
Obviously, the fact that Powell has said that they are now neutral is what really helped the Aussie drop.
Even recently Powell was bullish on the US economy.
Geopolitically, everything depends on the China and Trump reaching a trade deal.
New trade tariffs are due to hit on 15 December. So the phase 1 deal must be signed off by then to avoid this.
This recent bit of good news is that Chinese manufacturing PMIs improved today. Although Bloomberg tells me that this is an outlier
The one thing that I do know is that Phillip Lowe does not like the employment figures going in the wrong direction.
However, a trade deal might be signed in December
We might have some minor correction on Monday - price has hit an important level with some decent volume on Friday
Hopefully, we will get a rally on Monday - although I do see forecasts on building approvals being less than the last time.
On Tuesday at the cash rate meeting I would expect him to re-iterate his current position of being dovish.
This will put more pressure on the Aussie -
The other thing that bugs me is this level- lots of volume on it and usually I would only use these levels for buying.
One other point is that some of the banks are turning more bullish on the Aussie.
Then hopefully things will line up with Trump and China
Technically, it looks a bit of a mess though
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Jr0LZe5/
Will see how things pan out on Monday- and the look to trade the Aussie cash rate meeting on Tuesday
These are the things that concern the Aussie:
Employment, inflation and growth (according to the latest cash rate meeting)
Inflation is going the right way (although missing its target) and employment figures took a hit this month. Remember these are lagging.
The target employment rate is 4.5% but despite 3 recent cuts - its still at 5.3%.
The latest figures are not good reading
The economy forward looking indicators do point to slight turn in things
Consumer and business sentiment has improved slightly.
From reading the latest release on this:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/...cy-2019-11.pdf
The important bit is: "Given the outlook, the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the medium-term inflation target over time".
So things at the moment point to definite easing from the RBA.
They have said negative rates are off the table- and the max cut will be to .25% (according to Lowe's recent speech
Obviously, the fact that Powell has said that they are now neutral is what really helped the Aussie drop.
Even recently Powell was bullish on the US economy.
Geopolitically, everything depends on the China and Trump reaching a trade deal.
New trade tariffs are due to hit on 15 December. So the phase 1 deal must be signed off by then to avoid this.
This recent bit of good news is that Chinese manufacturing PMIs improved today. Although Bloomberg tells me that this is an outlier
The one thing that I do know is that Phillip Lowe does not like the employment figures going in the wrong direction.
However, a trade deal might be signed in December
We might have some minor correction on Monday - price has hit an important level with some decent volume on Friday
Hopefully, we will get a rally on Monday - although I do see forecasts on building approvals being less than the last time.
On Tuesday at the cash rate meeting I would expect him to re-iterate his current position of being dovish.
This will put more pressure on the Aussie -
The other thing that bugs me is this level- lots of volume on it and usually I would only use these levels for buying.
One other point is that some of the banks are turning more bullish on the Aussie.
Then hopefully things will line up with Trump and China
Technically, it looks a bit of a mess though
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Jr0LZe5/
Will see how things pan out on Monday- and the look to trade the Aussie cash rate meeting on Tuesday