DislikedInfinitus i was wrong last time i contacted you regarding FF sentiment. Winning percentage is much higher. It makes whole concept of 70% geared direction much less reliable as signal, becouse actually retailers are more time correct than wrong, that ofcourse only of that study on FF sentiment. This study is not very reliable becouse it only counts in extremes, but in general thats only reliable signal fron any sentiment indicator anyways. Here is new stuff: Term for being "correct" in this analysis i used was used as DD over 150-200 pips as wrong...Ignored
thanks for the work - much apreciated
a) have you used the values of "Lots" or "Traders"? It is important to use the "Traders", because it is about the collective mood of the traders and not about how deep the pockets are of a few. E.g. today I saw that one trader is allegedly short 163 Lots EU
b) it is very interesting to look not only at the extreme values, but also the positioning right after the extrema occur, say 2-4 days later. As I already said, at extreme points (price wise) the retail crowd is often right, but will lose all of their proceedings quickly after that, because they do not hold on to their positions long enough, but change positioning very quickly after initial gains
c) since your shown samples show a quiet inhomogeneous result, it would require a much larger sample size, it seems
d) is the result transferable to other currency-pairs than GU?
e) maybe we have some positive chewed bias in the FF trade explorers, since successful traders may be more inclined to show the trade explorers (survivorship bias) - maybe we should use instead of the FF trade explorers the data of Oanda, for example
Dukascopy does deliver sentiment data right into the JForex-platform. I have used it for a while, but it may be bad programmed, because it totally slows down all of my notebooks and often enough freezes the JForex platform.