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Macroeconomic and Geopolitical context in Trading 25 replies

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Macroeconomic Analysis

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about 'nrg-OIL Benchmaks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there is the CoT-chart ofRBOB / Los Angeles Gasoline & other Gasoline interesting curves.
More than in WTI, there is a monster bullish spread between Commercial Traders (= Hedgers) vs. Large Traders (Financials or Trenders).

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤

AVERAGE AMONG Gasoline (Regular) prices
U.S. Gulf Coast -- Harbor -- RBOB / Los Angeles
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=66366
Average Gasoline prices
(Harbor; U.S. Gulf Coast, RBOB / Los Angeles) vs.
Crude Oil (WTI Cushing), d-spread.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=66367
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...s-vs-price.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...a-vs-price.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #422
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 19, 2012 5:27pm Feb 18, 2012 5:31pm | Edited Feb 19, 2012 5:27pm
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about 'nrg-OIL Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

These two charts shows the r-spread between US stocks-market vs. WTI (linear & daily-close format).
In 1990 starts the SkyRocket of equity, with the curve of r-spread at top of the chart.
The period post-top (post 1998 about), is very similar to '60.tops/'80.lows, with 3-4
SellOff events.
This is only an analogy, but it is interesting to follow because of the possible bullish consequences on the stocks-market.
A bearish-break of in-line lows of '40, '50, '90, '00, increases the probability of stocks-MeltDown.
S&P500 vs. WTI
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=66383
D.J. COMP. AVER. vs. WTI
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=66384

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
  • Post #423
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:27pm Feb 19, 2012 7:38am | Edited at 5:27pm
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about 'nrg-OIL Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

These two charts shows the CBOE Volatility Indicator of ETF oil-based USO.
The big gray-cap or irregular Bullish-H&S goes at target (about) in 2011 tops, with prices above the thin white rectangle.
The new SellOff of volatility, builds an important key-level (tops of 2011) for the big dotted & white bearish channel, now in progress (main trend in confirmed bearish-status).
Also the secondary trends are in bearish-status, as we can see from the prices below both the blue ascending channel and the green hard descending line.
The long-term ema-format is in according to this pattern, bacuse of ema are in complete bearish-array.

Prices below 25/30$ area increases the probability of important SellOff of this indicator (see 32/34$ on long-term ema chart).
The pink area may be the pivot of the chart:
prices (consistently & persistently) above this area will cause the real bullish reversal of the curve
prices in continuation-bear below this area, increases the probability of a new bullish-leg on the underlying.

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #424
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:28pm Feb 19, 2012 9:42am | Edited at 5:28pm
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about 'nrg-OIL Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Price charts of WTI in two scale-formats (see also: Period-to-period percentage change at annual rates; Period-to-period actual change at annual rates):
linear; e.Base-Log.
Linear format (monthly close)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=48696
e.Base-Log format (monthly close)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-02-19

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.
Notes on e.Base-Log.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
  • Post #425
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:28pm Feb 19, 2012 1:33pm | Edited at 5:28pm
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about 'nrg-OIL Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

A complete multiple-frames curves of the d-spread between WTI vs. BRENT (in the below sequence: 1y frame of 1mo., 3mo., 6mo., 10mo.; 5y of the previous curves).

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about WTI.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

On the chart there are two interesting candle-patterns, with important impact on price-evolution of WTI in bullish sense.
In yellow not continuous-lines, there is the triple 10mo. average (ema; fwma; sma), as a structural signal; now the prices are above this knot !!!

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 738 KB
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about WTI.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

On the chart there are two 10.base-Log ema-format of WTI:
simple; long-term.
According to this chart-types we can see a complete bullish-array of the signal from ema.
Long-term chart shows important buy-sign in 2010 & 2011.

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 732 KB
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about WTI.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Price-evolution of WTI from the perspective of oscillators.

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 1.1 MB Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 579 KB
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about WTI.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

In this post there is a previous (little modified) version of study on e.Base-Log format of WTI (original personal XII 2012 chart; previous 2004 secular & linear chart). See also two version of 10.base-Log format, and a linear version.
On the chart attached there are two wave counts, as key-markers but without information about Elliott counts. Two Elliott counts will be explained below in the text.

The top area 38/41$ of 1981 (Log.nat. = 3.64/3.71) is a key-element of the chart, with a start (1.15$ about; Ln = 0.41) after W.W./II, and with a price-evolution of 39/40X.
The 'side' period 1974/2003 is a big graphical figure in evolution in particular on 'x'-axis (time).
There is a very interesting convergence between the lows of 'side' period 1974/2003 (see red-lines) and the pause of 1975/1978.
The price-zone 41/38$ vs. 9.5/10.5$ (1974 / 1975 / 1986 / 1998 / 1999; area = 31$ about), has been the giant GraphicalƉetonator for the next SkyRocket of 1500% toward historical top of jul.2008; this run took place almost without stopping, except at 72$, the price set-up 41+31$ (Ln = 4.28).
From 1999 starts the new bullish-leg (dotted black channel: 9 years; 15X of price-action), with a wonder set-up vs. ascending & structural 70y channel.
The next period is a real MeltDown (2008/2009), with a loss of 3/4 in few weeks, a full test of price-area 1974/2003 (violent breaks of: 79$ = 50% price-action 10-148 (1999/2008) = Ln 4.37; 74$ = target of 50%-loss from top = Ln 4.30; 72$ = price set-up 41+31$ or 4.28 Ln), and a sequences of traumatic lows in the 40/34$ (ln = 3.69/3.53) area (dec.2008, 40$ and 35$; jan.2009, 36$; feb.2009, 34$).

Now there is an attempt to translate the wave counts (blue & black) on the chart, in Elliott wave counts.
Blue wave counts.
Price-action 1-5, impulsive, as a mega-wave n.1.
Price-action 6/7/8, lateral, as a mega-corrective wave n.2.
Price-action 1999-started, as a super-structured wave n.3 (8-13), now in progress;
the violent corrective 2008/2009 is a n.2, inside a n.3 super-structured, stopped at 34$ (ln = 3.53) in winter 2009;
From 34$, there will be the wave n.3 inside of n.3 super-structured, with a final target well above 148$.
First 0K! for this structure with prices above 72/79$ (Ln = 4.28/4.37); second 0K! with prices above the red descending rectangle from the top (95/110$ as Ln 4.55/4.70).
This model has obtained the first 0K! and now is in a second full-test (the first in 2011 tops) for the second 0K!
A final target for this impulsive price-evolution ??? A 39/40X of the start-base = 370/410$ (Ln = 5.91/6.02).
Stop of the model with prices below 34$.

Black wave counts.
Price-action 1-3 impulsive, as a mega-waves n.1, n.2, n.3.
Price-action 4/5/6, lateral, as a mega-corrective wave n.4.
Price-action 1999-started, as a super-structured wave n.5 (6-11).
Two patters are possible (□ ■):
□) the price-action started in 1999 died at 148$; from this historical top is in progress a complex corrective price-action ('ABC' shape?) of the period 1945/2008;
the MeltDown 148$/34$ is the wave n.A;
the next wave n.B is a recovery leg now 'in progress', with a probable price-target of 50-62% of previous n.A (91$/106$ about = Ln 4.51/4.66); but it is possible also a false double tops with n.A;
the n.C wave has a final target well below 34$, as 17/26$ (= 2.8/3.2 in Ln), or below.
An important 0K! for this model is the failure-cross (see 2011-tops) of 95/110$ (Ln = 4.55/4.70), or the non-renewal of 148$, and the subsequent SellOff below 51$ (Ln = 3.93).
■) The historical top of 148$ is the target of the wave n.3 of the super-structured wave n.5 (now in progress), and the price action 2008/2009, 148$/34$, is the wave n.4 inside of wave n.5 super-structured;
the price-evolution in progress, is the wave n.5 (or final leg) inside of wave n.5 super-structured, with a possible target as the red-circled area (an important set-up zone), at 200/250$ (Ln = 5.3/5.5).
An important 0K! for this model there will be with prices above 95/110$ (Ln = 4.55/4.70), with new historical top.

Final Notes
According to the price-positions vs. big ascending (structural) blue channel, the WTI is in confirmed bullish-array on all long-term frames.
According to above considerations, we can see two price-attractors: 72/79$ & 90/110$ (Ln = 4.28/4.37 & 4.50/4.70).
According to the price-positions vs. price-attractors, there will be an important increase/decrease of probability of bullish vs. bearish pattern (see the above 3 wave counts).
First secular bear signal with prices below the black-dotted channel (start: 1999).
Second secular bear signal with prices below 40/34$ (ln = 3.69/3.53) area.
Now the prices are at second attempt of bull-cross of 90/110$, with long-term ema in bullish-array (n.427) and triple 10mo. average in preliminar structural buy signal (n.426).

From the previous charts/notes, we can see the following elements:
-) average curves from oils benchmarks shows important bullish-array (n.410; n.411; n.421);
-) CoT charts for 3 oil benchmarks shows important bullish spreads between Commercial Traders (= Hedgers) vs. Large Traders (Financials or Trenders) (n.419, n.420, n.421);
-) CBOE volatility indicator USO-ETF based (n.423), shows a complete bearish-array of curve in mid-long term frames (positive sign for underlying);
-) the d-spread WTI vs. Brent has shows an histeric MeltDown in the second half of 2011 (n.417); now the spread is in a recovery bullish leg, and a continuation-bull toward 0-line is a positive elements for WTI bullish status (see top of d-spread in 2008); from a complete multiple-frames curves (1mo.-10mo.) of the d-spread WTI vs. BRENT, we can see that the spread curves shows a decrease evolution impulsive-like (n.425).
-) the spreads curves of the previous study (n.412, n.413, n.414, n.415, n.416, n.421, ) shows an important continuation-bear of indicators (positive impact for WTI prices); indicator values below the previous 2011 lows will increase the probability of important bullish-leg for WTI.
-) the spread Nat.Gas vs. WTI (n.418) is in according to previous oil-spread (see also the spread vs. US stocks-benchmarks).
-) on the linear & monthly candles-format (n.426) there are two interesting candle-patterns (engulfing bullish; inside bullish-activated), with a preliminar target at 117$.
-) in 2011/2012 there are some buy-signs from the perspective of oscillators (n.428).

Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Italian Gov.Debt.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Original source: Italy Central Bank -- IcebergFinanza.
Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for these benchmarks.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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►►MEGALITHIC & PYROCLASTIC STUDY◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]

http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/3.cover.gifhttp://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/3.cover.gifhttp://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/25/3.cover.gif

Trade Credit Contracts.
Leora Klapper
Luc Laeven
Raghuram Rajan
Review of Financial Studies, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp. 838-867.
Abstract.
We employ a novel data set on almost 30,000 trade credit contracts to describe the broad characteristics of the parties that contract together and the key terms of these contracts. Whereas prior work has typically used information on only one side of the buyer-seller transaction, we utilize information on both, allowing for the first analysis of buyer-seller pairs. An equally important distinction is that we have multiple contracts for the same buyer or supplier firms, rather than a firm-average response, allowing for the correction of time-invariant firm characteristics that might determine the choice of credit terms. We find that the largest and most creditworthy buyers receive contracts with the longest maturities from smaller suppliers, and that discounts for early payment tend to be offered to riskier buyers.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Stem-Cell Stocks

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


◒ In this post there are some notes about some not professional stocks-portfolios based on Staminal Cell Companies.
The first is the Tickerspy RXSTM; the II and III are personal portfolios.
The portfolio curves (blue-lines) are in % performance-format, with S&P500 as the benchmark (gray & dotted line).
This post has the only purpose of tracking the main trends of this BioTech. subsector.
The price behavious of portfolios is very affected from the stocks compositions.


◒ Stem Cell Stocks (*RXSTM) -- Portfolio stocks: ASTM ATHX BTX CUR CYTX GERN ISCO KOOL NBS OPXA OSIR PSTI STEM
http://www.tickerspy.com/navcharts.c...dx=SPY&month=0
This portfolio shows an important bearish trend, as we can see from mid-2011 with the break of the blue ascending channel (theoretical target as dotted blue line).
The price-action is inside the red dotted descending channel, and this is in according with the previous note.
The binary horizontal level (lows of 2009/2010) is the key-markers for a new leg of bearish trend vs. a stop of bear and a new bullish phase.
Only with prices above the red dotted channel there will be an important reversal of portfolio evolution.


◒ $@!V¥ GENERAL STEM-CELLS PORTFOLIO -- Portfolio stocks: ACTC AMST ASTM ATHX BAX BCLI BHRT BMSN BMTI BTX CBAI CCEL CCYG CO CUR CYTX GERN ISCO KOOL MDSM MEDS NBS OPXA OSIR PSTI SCAL SCLL SCLZ STEM TNGN VODG
http://www.tickerspy.com/portcharts....x=SPY&&month=0
This portfolio (with more stocks) shows a continuation-bull without stops, and with a small secondary bearish trend broken in the IV quarter of 2011.
Now the prices is in full ascending test of an important set-up (see binary horizontal lines vs. thin ascending binary lines).
Above this set-up, there will be a new bullish leg with probable test of the previous chart tops.
Below this set-up, there will be a probable test of the next important set-up (green-area).
Only below this green-area there will be a real reversal of this portfolio.


◒ $@!V¥ CORD-STEM PORTFOLIO -- Portfolio stocks: AMST BMSN CBAI CCEL CO CYTX KOOL NBS PSTI
http://www.tickerspy.com/portcharts....dx=SPY&month=0
This portfolio shows the same structure of the RXSTM, but with an important bullish-action from the lows of 2011 on the binary horizontal.
In this bullish action the red dotted (descending) channel was broken, with a stop of main bearish trend, and a back inside the blue channel.
From these graphical elements, we can see that the secondary bearish trend is died, and the main bearish trend is stopped, with a preliminary new bullish trend.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Silver [Ag].

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is the short-mid term graphical situation of Silver according to linear & weekly ema-format chart [ Ag -- Ag-prices ] (see previous chart in linear & monthly bars-format).
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=d1

The main graphical elements are the followings:
1) yellow bearish cup (neck-level = 35.5$ about), with target as the yellow column in bearish-side (25.5$ about);
2) graphical contest in progress (orange area: neck-level 34.5$ about) between a bullish cup vs. a multiple tops (nov.2011-jan.2012-feb.2012); targets of this contest as orange columns (up: 41.0/41.5$ about; down: 21.0$ about);
3) prices well above the long term & structural ema (bold & dotted red & white ema);
4) prices in full ascending-test of Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma);
5) the spread of CoT-chart is in bullish-array.

The area of 25-21$ is an hard-knot in long-term frame for Ag, as wee can see from the previous long-term chart. This area is very hard to break, and the price action is compatible with a long-term bullish array of curve until to 20-18$ level.
The neck at 34.5$ about is the GraphicalƉetonator of the chart.
Below this neck there will be an increase of stress inside this precious metal, but only with prices below 30$ there will be a probable SellOff ultil to 21.0$.
Above this neck there will be a probable run toward the II top of 2011 (41-42$ level); above this target-level, it is probable an important Pyroclastic evolution of Ag-prices, because of september 2011 inside candle (price-area: 17.30$; T/L/Mid = 43.45/26.15/34.8$; up-target = 60.75$; down-target = 8.85$) .



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about the spread Au vs. U.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two data source for Au vs. U r-spread: The International Monetary Fund & the spot-prices (see previous studies on Au & U).
This curve is a useful indicator of stress inside financial markets
The main graphical elements are the followings:
1) in 2009, curve goes above the main descending rectangle 1990/2009 (bearish-status breakage);
2) from 2007 (see start of stocks-MeltDown), the curve goes in a Pyroclastic phase, with curve well above the triple horizontal levels of lows-1996/1997/1999, tops-1982/1985, but also above the lows of 1990/1992/1993/2001/2002;
3) a wonder gray-cup is in progress on the lows of 2007, with a preliminary bullish status in 2011/2012 (target well above the tops of I.M.F. chart).

Curve in continuation-bull above the triple horizontal levels, increase the probability of a new important ascending leg toward the top of 2000 (strength: Au > U).
Prices above (consistently & persistently) top of 2000, may result in a boost to the curve toward the target of gray-cup (strength: Au >> U).
Prices below (consistently & persistently) the triple horizontal levels, increase the probability of the start of a new trend in bearish-status, toward the violet set-up area (strength: Au < U).
Prices below (consistently & persistently) the violet set-up area, may result in a boost to the curve toward the 2007-lows & below (strength: Au << U).



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$ADDhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP￥R€ $0UND $￥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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  • Post #435
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:21am Mar 1, 2012 7:17am | Edited at 7:21am
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∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about RSI Breadth Indicators

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there are some special breadth-charts (about in phase vs. underlyings) about RSI of S&P/100 & Nd/100 stocks: the % of stocks, of these two benchmarks, above 70-line & below 30-line on daily-RSI/14 (previous Nd/Comp 2009-chart >70 & 2009-chart <30; previous Nd/100 2010-chart >70 & 2010-chart <30; previous NYSE 2010-chart >70 & 2010-chart <30).

The charts >70 line, shows the following main graphical elements (3y frame):
-) important divergences between tops of underlyings vs. breadth-indicators (no good sign for 3y-frame);
-) local divergences in 2012 between tops of underlyings vs. breadth-indicators (no good sign for 3mo.-frame);
-) curves in bearish direction toward the mean-level of indicators (loss of strenght of benchmarks).
The charts <70 line, shows the following main graphical elements (3y frame):
-) red-rectangles as the key-area for important curve-tops or underlyinglows;
-) Pyroclastic tops in 2011 marked with red-square;
-) local divergence between lows of Nd/100 curve vs. underlyings top (no good sign for 3mo.-frame).

Notes:
The strenght of recent bullish leg, according to >70 curves, shows an important decrease; the mean-level of these two curves is a key element for a possible start of a bearish (corrective?) leg.
It is foudamental the break of previous divergences on these curves.
The strenght of bearish-action in 2011 was very important (see the tops); the Nd/100 divergences on the recent lows is an alert sign.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about DJ US Titan/30 Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is the comparative price action among the DJ US Titan/30 US Stocks Index vs. two global US stocks-benchmarks: S&P1500 & Wilshire-5k. (previous 2010-chart & 2010-zoom-chart).
The DJ US Titan/30 US Stocks Index is used as supposed anticipatory index.

Notes:
On short term there are not signs of divergences among the DJ US Titan vs. two global US benchmarks.
On mid-term we can see an in-line top 2011-2012 for Wilshire-5k & S&P1500, but two descending tops 2011-2012 for DJ US Titan (bad sign ???).


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about DJ US TOY Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some comparative charts about DJ US TOY Ind. vs. some global benchmarks, in order to complete a study of this sub-sector.
Previous charts: n.1 -- n.2.


☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Hg.
http://www.metalprices.com/images/me...mercury_bg.jpg
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about Mercury [Hg] (Previous chart)
The commodity shows an interesting side-evolution during 2006 until to 2009, inside an horizontal channel 450-600$ about.
In 2009/2010 start a SkyRocket leg, without important pauses, until now at 2500$, 5.55X of previous low and 16.7X of basal-channel price-area !!!
The asymptote is like to an hard neck between demand and supply.
A possible final target of this SkyRocket leg is a 10X of the previous low at 400$ level !!!
A first bullish stop only with prices below 1500$.




☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Hf.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Original source for I & II images.




☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤

http://www.lipmann.co.uk/img/hf_supply.JPG
http://www.lipmann.co.uk/img/hf_demand.JPG
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  • Post #440
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:34am Mar 6, 2012 8:27am | Edited at 8:34am
►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about DJ US TOY Index.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...me=6&rand=1492
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous charts: n.1 -- n.2; charts Watch-Area; comparative charts vs. general benchmarks.

In this post there are some comparative charts about DJ US TOY Ind (chart in linear & daily ema-format).
The double (imperfect) tops of 2011-2012 (pink-area).
The real break of the lows of pink-area, increase the probability of important bearish-leg for this benchmark (see down pink-rectangle as target).
The real break of the tops of pink-area, increase the probability of important new bullish-leg for this benchmark (see up pink-rectangle as target).
The GraphicalƉetonator of the mid-term chart, are the orange-spots on the main set-up zone.
Alert on the ema/5 behaviours, on the Multiple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥® █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ©❤
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