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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,981
  • Sep 14, 2008 6:39pm Sep 14, 2008 6:39pm
Lemme start with my analysis for this week's TC possibility.

EURO:

Price has broken through the bearish channel giving a new 4hour direction which is bullish, so as MACD, which has passed the '0' line and is also giving a new bullish direction. Hope there is a perfect setup on this pair so that we can get an entry point.

Cable:

Price has finally started going up after last Friday's move, breakout did also happen after breaking my bearish-orange-support TL there. I hope this pair is also doing its job making a perfect TC. Like usual, time will tell.
Happy hunting
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: long gu.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #16,982
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:00pm Sep 14, 2008 8:00pm
Hi,

I just dropped by this thread to let you all know, im a big fan of Phillip Nel's 4hour macd and i've been using it since over a year in my analysis.

I also have to admit that ive always made losses whenever i step into TF below the 4hour and i rarely make losses when i trade on 4hour TF, 4hour TF is just great, we just need to keep an eye on 30 candles a week (How Easy is that! )

Thanks to macd from phillip ive made a whooping 50pips+ this morning on EU, GU, AU and NU long trades.

I would like to share a noticement about the TC (Trend Continuation signal on macd) , for some reason it will usually "if not always" occur around or exactly on the candles that has a corresponding same direction Fractal on it.

Heres my screenshot of how im using this (Kinda zoomed in completly) & the Fractal signal that starts a TC on Macd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my4hoursystem_beta.gif Size: 48 KB


  • #16,983
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:26pm Sep 14, 2008 10:26pm
Many thanks or baie dankie. Jideck
  • #16,984
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:57pm Sep 14, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting hijackxx
Lemme start with my analysis for this week's TC possibility.

EURO:

Price has broken through the bearish channel giving a new 4hour direction which is bullish, so as MACD, which has passed the '0' line and is also giving a new bullish direction. Hope there is a perfect setup on this pair so that we can get an entry point.

Cable:

Price has finally started going up after last Friday's move, breakout did also happen after breaking my bearish-orange-support TL there. I hope this pair is also doing its job making a perfect TC. Like usual, time will tell.
Happy hunting
hi
the bigger pivture shows another possibility ,i know its just a guess but should becarefull about the resistance around that circle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,985
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:25am Sep 15, 2008 12:25am
Hi!

Last Thursday I wrote that I bought 1,50 EURUSD Calls for 10 pips, and today morning I sold 2/3 of my position for 32 pips.

Would you sell the EURUSD for filling the weekend gap?
  • #16,986
  • Edited 1:50am Sep 15, 2008 1:10am | Edited 1:50am
The 5min has shown me a possibility of the gap being filled so entered at 1.4297 afte 3 lower highs on 5min. Allthough still in the triangle the lower highs is a strong signal

Edit 1
Closed 50% after 20pips. Set remainder at BE and 20trailstop.

Edit 2
Stoploss at BE(1.4297) could be in danger as 1.4300 might be tested again. Lets see what happens. Therefore I closed 50% after 20pips to secure some profit.

Edit 3
Looks like we are out of danger. Remainder started to move.

Edit 4
Position closed at 1.4250. Gap allmost closed. Price at 4H 8ema

Total gain (20+47)/2 = 33,5pips in 30min. (I got out maybe too early but the aim for me was pips to be made in the filling of the gap and not a 4H system trade. I dont take the full gap as sometimes it turns around just before the gap is filled. It is all in the profit target which in my case was 1.4250 and the 4H 8ema MA.

The above trade is all within this strategy as we have discussed it on many occasions that gaps tend to be filled. I make use of my 5min system to establish a good entry point as well as some form of confirmation that the gap might be filled as per the graphs included.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy 1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #16,987
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:25am Sep 15, 2008 1:25am
ALWAYS follow the RULES! Last Friday i lost half of my depo... Reasons: i did not follow the rules, the market rythm, wanted to make easy money. Let it be lesson for me and other traders. Now i will start from the very beginning and will try to recover. Thanks to all for analysis and charts you post here.
  • #16,988
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:27am Sep 15, 2008 2:27am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy 1.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Gap Trading.zip   535 KB | 2,558 downloads
  • #16,989
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:23am Sep 15, 2008 4:23am
phillip:
well done ,nice trade ,i was watching that triangle today morning and was preparing to enter ,the only reason that i didnt enter was the big stoploss (about 50pips) for a M5 trade .
  • #16,990
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:58am Sep 15, 2008 4:58am
The 1 hour entry examples are now posted on the website. Earlier in the week I know I spoke about 'boxes' on the 1 hour an support and resistance levels within those boxes but s/r can be subjective with me. Sometimes I use the closes or the highs/lows of the candle. So, none of that is mentioned on the website with the 1 hour entry. Instead, the entry is more of a black and white yes or no entry with the 1 hour. As always, study this before taking any action and make sure that you have the 4 hour rhythm principles down.

Please let me know if there are any broken links on the site. I think everything is cool though...

I'll be 'gone' until later this afternoon...
  • #16,991
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:52am Sep 15, 2008 6:52am
A good trendline can be a powerful ally.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,992
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:02am Sep 15, 2008 7:02am
This one could have been taken, but i didnt dare too. I got cold feet.

Heavy confluence at the red horizontal line, 3 fiblines come together there. Obvious strong resistance and MACD pattern on 1 hour chart...

Well, coulda woulda shoulda...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,993
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:35am Sep 15, 2008 7:35am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Thanks, Phillip. Your teaching is very clear and it is great that you are prepared to pass on your wisdom.

Still learning the 4 hour system but will keep your 5 min system in mind for later.
James The Beekeeper
  • #16,994
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:11am Sep 15, 2008 11:11am
Thank you philip and others for supply new traders like me. My english is very poor . Can anybody translate recent MP3's to written copy ? Thank you very much .

Best regards
Arash
  • #16,995
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:08pm Sep 15, 2008 3:08pm
Just a few words here about the overall market:

First of all there are several red/orange news events out tomorrow, be cautious and aware if you have a position. I'm flat, here's why:

Last week I was thinking that the volatility of things might be on the rise with the hurricane (oil) and financial quandary that the US financial markets are in. Even with the drop in the oil market the EU is going the wrong way, or, conventional thinking tells us that it is. The 4hr EU did play by the rules by coming back down to the 21 and returning to the upside, after closing above it. But, to catch this move you would have had to really narrow things down with the range of the price bars. On this chart, I have an average true range indicator set to 1 which shows the range of the current bar. The level (gray line) is set to 50 or 50 pips per bar. Look how the range of the ATR has increased. We're still trending down (89 is getting close though) and the signals are still there but the range of the signal entry has increased. I see (just my 2 cents) the volatility staying high or even increasing for now. The Fed may step in and bail out more institutions and the indexes may gain half back tomorrow what they lost today. Not all systems are immune to volatility. The only way to control the volatility is for you to recognize that and adjust your own trading style....
Attached Image
  • #16,996
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:20pm Sep 15, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting Palmer
Just a few words here about the overall market:

First of all there are several red/orange news events out tomorrow, be cautious and aware if you have a position. I'm flat, here's why:

Last week I was thinking that the volatility of things might be on the rise with the hurricane (oil) and financial quandary that the US financial markets are in. Even with the drop in the oil market the EU is going the wrong way, or, conventional thinking tells us that it is. The 4hr EU did play by the rules by coming back down to the 21 and returning to the upside, after closing above it. But, to catch this move you would have had to really narrow things down with the range of the price bars. On this chart, I have an average true range indicator set to 1 which shows the range of the current bar. The level (gray line) is set to 50 or 50 pips per bar. Look how the range of the ATR has increased. We're still trending down (89 is getting close though) and the signals are still there but the range of the signal entry has increased. I see (just my 2 cents) the volatility staying high or even increasing for now. The Fed may step in and bail out more institutions and the indexes may gain half back tomorrow what they lost today. Not all systems are immune to volatility. The only way to control the volatility is for you to recognize that and adjust your own trading style....

And by that you are saying that ATR shows that candlesticks are more than 50 pips in the last period, so using 4h entry would mean putting high stoplosses, thus encouraging to stay out of the market, or use a lower timeframe? Am i getting it right?

jj
  • #16,997
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:23pm Sep 15, 2008 3:23pm
Could you help me please. I have already asked Philip for some information about the .mq4 files, I have got reply but I do not want to bother Philip again with coming back to the same problem, I wish to install this on my MetaTrader but I have not been successful so far. I did click and paste the links but nothing is apparent when I open the metatrader again, what do I do wrong. The files are very small size when transferred only 1KB and I am worry that I have it somwhat wrong.
Could you help, please.
Jideck
  • #16,998
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:43pm Sep 15, 2008 3:43pm
Do not worry about my previous request, I have found the path on your website. Many thanks Jideck.
  • #16,999
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:28pm Sep 15, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting jennajameson
And by that you are saying that ATR shows that candlesticks are more than 50 pips in the last period..Yes


, so using 4h entry would mean putting high stoplosses,...If there is a 'valid' signal, yes. If you use the previous candle's high or low (if it's within a R:R ratio that is worthy of a trade) the stop loss could be 50, 60, 80, 100 pips. That's big. You can use limit orders to lower the stop though.

 thus encouraging to stay out of the market...Not necessarily.,

or use a lower timeframe...Yes, but this is a different trading approach altogether. ?

Am i getting it right?...Shabinnnng!

jj
When I see these ranges increasing I often (time permitting) start looking at Phillip's 5 minute method. Not necessarily to enter a 4hr signal on, but I've caught a few before as my buds saka and bshadroo have, but to specifically make trades on. Trades that I only have a 5 to 10 pip target.
  • #17,000
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:30pm Sep 15, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Jideck
Do not worry about my previous request, I have found the path on your website. Many thanks Jideck.
Jideck:

Let me know if you've got things going. A lot of people don't realize that after new indicators or templates are loaded that you need to shut down MT4 and restart it..
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