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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #781
  • Feb 16, 2007 1:38am Feb 16, 2007 1:38am
USDCHF has been slow moving and choppy tonight (must be data coming out tomorrow and long weekend ahead). I decided to close positions manually after repeated failure of resistance at 1.2363.

First lot closed on last bounce to 1.2363
Second lot closed a few pips from breakeven at 1.2355

Would have been stopped out at BE on the two lots, so I am happy for decision to close (and I won't be available to monitor trades tomorrow).

This week was pretty good (I missed the big move) but managed to finish up the week +174 pips! Thanks Phillip & the group of AWESOME traders on this forum!

Have a nice weekend all.
  • #782
  • Feb 16, 2007 1:40am Feb 16, 2007 1:40am
Pips for the week were generated off of 3 trades and none of them were losers.

  • #783
  • Feb 16, 2007 3:32am Feb 16, 2007 3:32am
[quote=tamkras;219079]
Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd

first target 1.2320.

Phil, did you mean 1.3120? Looks like a typo. I am in short @1.3135. I can risk 50 pip of my yesterday's cable gain.
we are winning again. I methodically follow MACD system. I am closing 1 lot with 20 pips gain @ 1.3109.
  • #784
  • Feb 16, 2007 3:39am Feb 16, 2007 3:39am
Quoting 5forMe
Question about the USD/Yen.

Is the 0400 (gmt+1) candle close showing an entry signal? Is the formation considered a double top?

Thanks for your help, I am still trying to get a good understanding of entry signals with this 4 hour strategy.

If it is a good long entry, how would you determine stops?
Look for strong resistance and support lines. Use the MA's and key price levels on your chart to help you determine your stop loss and take profits as well as when to enter the trade
  • #785
  • Feb 16, 2007 4:02am Feb 16, 2007 4:02am
Quoting pips4uandme
Pips for the week were generated off of 3 trades and none of them were losers.

well-deserved! let's take pips from big institutions into our piggybanks!
  • #786
  • Feb 16, 2007 4:52am Feb 16, 2007 4:52am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Just looking at the Daily chart for the EUR, if this candle closes today similiar to this. Should we start thinking to short? Perhaps it's run out of steam for now?
great observation of the battle field from a daily perspective. This knowledge plus MACD system gives you the confidence. Shorting from this level with the first target @ important price level 1.3100 (make some leeway up) is a plan in action.
  • #787
  • Edited 5:21am Feb 16, 2007 5:07am | Edited 5:21am
On the daily chart we had a Doji candle form and price was rejected at the 61.8% Fib level(from Dec. 3rd high of 1.3366 to low of Jan. 12th 1.2866). Which might signal a Short position. But, price is sitting at the 50% Fib level, near the important 1.3100 level and 21EMA on the 4hr chart with MACD nearing the zero line. So perhaps a Long position is in the cards? Looks like something might happen(probably next week). But need to be patient to see which way it breaks!!! Anyone else see the same thing or something different?
  • #788
  • Feb 16, 2007 5:27am Feb 16, 2007 5:27am
Quoting pipmy4x
What are anybody take on the usd/chf. It is in a nice down trend but There is a double bottom forming?
All times are in GMT.

1. Price action is below 89 SMA and so we are in 'Down Trend Mood' (as Phillip emphasises).

2. The upward dip in 8:00 to 12:00 GMT bar is a 'trend continues' signal and it is a signal in the direction of the trend. So, take it!
3. Now, at present at 12:00 to 16:00 candle is forming (It is 13:17 GMT now).
4. Ready to go up but there is one MA (8MA) or two MAs (8MA and 365MA) as resistances. We can ignore 365MA as resistance for two reasons; it is not as effective as the other smaller MAs for our time frame of trading and it is too far from the price action and we can as well use it our tp (Ha!).
5. The price has crossed its price barrier of, say, 1.2350.

Now, what is holding us! Go LONG at 1.2354 or so!
(I am not going long until Phillp or any other good guys endorse my thinking.
Best of luck to all on this Friday.
-Chandra
PS: Phillip, please comment on my analysis quick so that we all can act on this chandle bar.
  • #789
  • Feb 16, 2007 5:29am Feb 16, 2007 5:29am
short the eur/usd
  • #790
  • Feb 16, 2007 6:18am Feb 16, 2007 6:18am
Quoting Chandra
---
First of all, you are a very competent, keen-observing trader. You have all what it takes to be a great trader. ONLY one enemy you have is your belief that you are not a good trader. With that removed from your head, you are going to beat almost all traders in this group!
Now, coming to your step 5, you may replace it as follows:
If the price is above 89MA then we are in up trend mood (as Phillip emphasises). In that situation, any long signals by MACD are with the trend and so take them and calculate your tp and sl using MAs, trend lines, price barriers in a normal way. However, while the price is above the 89MA and the MACD gives you a short signal, then it is a counter-trend trade and in that case you still consider taking that short trade but your tp should be up to the range of 8SMA and 21EMA and not beyond that. With this limitation in mind, if the R:R ratio justifies, then you take that trade.
I hope others in the group agrees with me.
-Chandra
Thanks again. For tp ranges on shorts against the trend, you said 8SMA is a good level, do you mean 8EMA?
Also, I take it that the reverse is true, if price is below 89MA then we are in a down trend mood, and the opposite applies?
I'll test this out at let you all know how it works.
  • #791
  • Feb 16, 2007 6:34am Feb 16, 2007 6:34am
Quoting confused
short the eur/usd
why? what's your plan?
  • #792
  • Feb 16, 2007 6:41am Feb 16, 2007 6:41am
thank you very much Chandra for your inside on the market it is always information! Keep posting and good pips to you!
  • #793
  • Feb 16, 2007 8:11am Feb 16, 2007 8:11am
Quoting rp0029
Thanks again. For tp ranges on shorts against the trend, you said 8SMA is a good level, do you mean 8EMA?
Also, I take it that the reverse is true, if price is below 89MA then we are in a down trend mood, and the opposite applies?
I'll test this out at let you all know how it works.
For counte-trend trades plan to take profit (tp) in the zone area of 8EMA and 21 EMA. This simply means do not aim for big gains when you are in a counter-trend trade. This is the philosophy advised by and used by Phillip.
-Chandra.
  • #794
  • Feb 16, 2007 8:52am Feb 16, 2007 8:52am
Quoting superdezign
Great!
where do i find this exercise.pdf?

I cant remember the post. If you came this far by not reading from post1 up to now and have not done the Exercise.pdf you will not be able to understand or trade the MACD system.
  • #795
  • Feb 16, 2007 9:16am Feb 16, 2007 9:16am
Quoting Chandra
I love your explinations! You never CONTRADICTED your statements becuase of your honesty.

Let me ask you one more thing which could be extension of the method.
Different from the othe markets, in Forex market you can hold a long and a short position of a pair simultaneously . How about taking advantage of this provision once you realize you made a wrong entry. For example, if feel you are wrong in your current long entry, take a short position and liquidate them at different times when each one becomes profitable on it own marits?
Thanks.
-Chandra
No. I will never do that. I will take my loss and that is it. there are times to do some hedging(counter positions) but that is a total different strategy.
  • #796
  • Feb 16, 2007 9:22am Feb 16, 2007 9:22am

hi philip >>>> what's your opinion on gbp/usd
I see it retrace from 23.6 fibo and making round bottom (not finished yet)and if we combare it with eur/usd which refused today to get down
(or up ) I think will see an up trend for both bairs next week...
wish u light the view to me

thanks

wish u all a peace week end far from the market

If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #797
  • Feb 16, 2007 10:07am Feb 16, 2007 10:07am
Here are my analyses of those trades made in May2006.

1. Remember that when the price is trending it tends to come back to the 21EMA before continuing the trend. If you are in the trend you dont want to counter trade the trend. If you are not in the trend you must only consider counter trending when there is resistance evidence such as trendlines together with price level, MA, Fib, candle patterns etc.
2. If you counter tade the trend you must know that it is a risky trade and the gain sometimes is not so big. Profit must be taken somewhere between 8EMA and 21EMA.

Here is my chart
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Presentation1.pdf   44 KB | 5,283 downloads
  • #798
  • Feb 16, 2007 10:34am Feb 16, 2007 10:34am
There are a lot of questions ask that has been delt with on the forum. I know that there are 50+ pages to read. If you really want to make an success you will have to read through it all. Discard what is not important but remember what is.

I include some of the important PDF documents. Read through it.

Read the one "Trend Trading with the MACD"

It is important to see the action of the price around the 8EMA and 21EMA when it is trending.

If you have a position in a trend trading market you must try to stay as long as possible. Set stoploss to below 21EMA and ride the wave.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 4HourAll PDF.zip   802 KB | 6,885 downloads
  • #799
  • Edited 12:32pm Feb 16, 2007 10:45am | Edited 12:32pm
I'm still new and learning about trading, so any comments are welcome.

Planning for next week on the EUR/USD pair...we are in an uptrend so I'm thinking Long. On the 4hr chart, MACD is heading towards the zero line and may turn up soon(we'll have to wait and see) which could give us a Long signal. Put this together with the fact that price has retraced down to the 21EMA, that's another Long signal.

If you look at the Daily chart now...we have two Doji/spinning tops that have formed(assuming todays closes near where it's at now). A little indecision here? Or a pause before continuing the uptrend? Also, if you draw Fib lines using the High of Dec. 3rd and Low of Jan 12th we are caught between the 50% and 61.8% retracements. Along with resistance from a trendline show on the daily chart attached below. So maybe not so fast with an uptrend, possible reversal? Once again, we'll have to wait and see.

Either case...here's my analysis.
If we get a Long signal: First target 1.3200, second 1.3245 and then 1.3270
If we get a Short signal: First target 1.3050 and then 1.3000

Maybe Phillip can comment on my thought process? Hopefully I'm using his system correctly!
Attached Images
  • #800
  • Edited 1:02pm Feb 16, 2007 12:22pm | Edited 1:02pm
I usually don't put too much stock in the ending sessions on Friday. If you look at the "volume" it goes down drastically. When this happens, it obviously changes the signals on the MACD and everyother indicator. so, I usually do my best to not trade on fridays, and take the signals with a grain of salt until at least Monday morning. Just my thoughts....

Edit: While the market does tend to continue over the weekend, I just consider it somewhat dangerous.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
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