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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #701
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:18am Feb 15, 2007 8:18am
That's a great chart Phillip. Several of us posted that it looked to be going up to the further trendline, and it hadn't made it there, and it didn't seem as if much stood in the way as Tamkras or Chandra said... it had free range to get there.



Quoting Phillip Nel
Look at Chart.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #702
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:18am Feb 15, 2007 8:18am
Can you tell me to what resistance have you worked out your Risk:Reward ratio when taking the deal. If it were the closest high your stop would have been 18 pips max. That was worth the risk for a full target to 1.3100

I would like to see the resistance levels that were considered in determining the stoploss.
  • #703
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:20am Feb 15, 2007 8:20am
Phillip,
I sent you a email about the conflict of thoughts while entering a trade.

Here is one more to ponder over.

There seems to be easier provision in forex tradig for big guys to take away stop losses compared to in the futures and commidities trading. The reason seems to be, in futures and commodities you have a huge heard of buyers and sellers on both sides of your broker's window. For a public buyer, there has to be a public seller, not an institutional seller.

But in forex trading, for a public buyer, there is only one (institutionlal) seller. So, the selling price does not reflect the fair selling price dectated by the huge public market. The selling price is dectated by one single institution. And you know how fair they can be. They need not be fair because there is no other competiter out there to compete their selling price!

So, how much they may shout on the top of their voice that this forex market is a huge market, bla, bla, they are not telling the truth. Yes, it is a huge market with several trillion dollar of trading. But it is not the dollar amount that should decide whether it is a huge market or not. It is the number of participants that should decide it.With the banks always sitting on the other side, we always buy or sell on their terms (prices decided by them) and there is not much With such a control whip in their hands, can we really win? I still feel we can still win provided we out smart them and that is what you are trying to do with your methods, etc.
By the way, are there more than one bank (institution) as market makers behind our broker so that they would compete among themselves to give us a better rate? If there is only one bank (institution) as market maker, "God, protect us".
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #704
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:29am Feb 15, 2007 8:29am
Quoting superdezign
so basically, its not to be considered strong unless it converges with another form of resistance, is that what you are saying?

Hi again!

No, that's not what I'm saying. The 8 seems to provide a bounce in a strong uptrend. That is when it is "strong." the 8 by nature, is a short term indicator and gives us an idea of what recent price action has done.

If it happens to converge with support along the way, then I would definately consider it to be stronger than normal. Don't really expect it to converge with trendlines too often, but I've never looked, so I don't know.
  • #705
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:31am Feb 15, 2007 8:31am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi again!

No, that's not what I'm saying. The 8 seems to provide a bounce in a strong uptrend. That is when it is "strong." the 8 by nature, is a short term indicator and gives us an idea of what recent price action has done.

If it happens to converge with support along the way, then I would definately consider it to be stronger than normal. Don't really expect it to converge with trendlines too often, but I've never looked, so I don't know.
thank you
  • #706
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:33am Feb 15, 2007 8:33am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,
I sent you a email about the conflict of thoughts while entering a trade.

Here is one more to ponder over.

There seems to be easier provision in forex tradig for big guys to take away stop losses compared to in the futures and commidities trading. The reason seems to be, in futures and commodities you have a huge heard of buyers and sellers on both sides of your broker's window. For a public buyer, there has to be a public seller, not an institutional seller.

But in forex trading, for a public buyer, there is only one (institutionlal) seller. So, the selling price does not reflect the fair selling price dectated by the huge public market. The selling price is dectated by one single institution. And you know how fair they can be. They need not be fair because there is no other competiter out there to compete their selling price!

So, how much they may shout on the top of their voice that this forex market is a huge market, bla, bla, they are not telling the truth. Yes, it is a huge market with several trillion dollar of trading. But it is not the dollar amount that should decide whether it is a huge market or not. It is the number of participants that should decide it.With the banks always sitting on the other side, we always buy or sell on their terms (prices decided by them) and there is not much With such a control whip in their hands, can we really win? I still feel we can still win provided we out smart them and that is what you are trying to do with your methods, etc.
By the way, are there more than one bank (institution) as market makers behind our broker so that they would compete among themselves to give us a better rate? If there is only one bank (institution) as market maker, "God, protect us".
Thanks.
-Chandra

You can not outsmart them. It is impossible. The price moves where the demand is and they create it. You have to get in flow with them. That is what the Tsunami is all about.
  • #707
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:35am Feb 15, 2007 8:35am
Quoting kevmcfoster
Hey tamkras,
you cheeky little Devil...I envy you for being right all the time
let's us all be a little be smarter than the market. Sounds impossible but market can not hide its emotions (as Phillip wrote), either. There is optimism, hesitation and pessimism all the time. MACD system is not only about mechanical trading. I would be surprised to see an mq4 script adjusted well to this system, ha-ha.
  • #708
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:37am Feb 15, 2007 8:37am
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can not outsmart them. It is impossible. The price moves where the demand is and they create it. You have to get in flow with them. That is what the Tsunami is all about.
Phillip, I guess we can if we flow with them. This is, probably, one more way of looking at it.
  • #709
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:38am Feb 15, 2007 8:38am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi again!

No, that's not what I'm saying. The 8 seems to provide a bounce in a strong uptrend. That is when it is "strong." the 8 by nature, is a short term indicator and gives us an idea of what recent price action has done.

If it happens to converge with support along the way, then I would definately consider it to be stronger than normal. Don't really expect it to converge with trendlines too often, but I've never looked, so I don't know.

You are abslolutely right. When the trend is very strong the price does not allways pull back to the 21EMA but bounce of the 8EMA. If MACD confirm up bar close the deal is on.
  • #710
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:44am Feb 15, 2007 8:44am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,
I sent you a email about the conflict of thoughts while entering a trade.

Here is one more to ponder over.

There seems to be easier provision in forex tradig for big guys to take away stop losses compared to in the futures and commidities trading. The reason seems to be, in futures and commodities you have a huge heard of buyers and sellers on both sides of your broker's window. For a public buyer, there has to be a public seller, not an institutional seller.

But in forex trading, for a public buyer, there is only one (institutionlal) seller. So, the selling price does not reflect the fair selling price dectated by the huge public market. The selling price is dectated by one single institution. And you know how fair they can be. They need not be fair because there is no other competiter out there to compete their selling price!

So, how much they may shout on the top of their voice that this forex market is a huge market, bla, bla, they are not telling the truth. Yes, it is a huge market with several trillion dollar of trading. But it is not the dollar amount that should decide whether it is a huge market or not. It is the number of participants that should decide it.With the banks always sitting on the other side, we always buy or sell on their terms (prices decided by them) and there is not much With such a control whip in their hands, can we really win? I still feel we can still win provided we out smart them and that is what you are trying to do with your methods, etc.
By the way, are there more than one bank (institution) as market makers behind our broker so that they would compete among themselves to give us a better rate? If there is only one bank (institution) as market maker, "God, protect us".
Thanks.
-Chandra
Hi Chandra,

The Forex market is a decentralized without 1 single institution controlling prices. Banks do compete for rates within the community resulting in the most competitive market.

Banks do communicate with one another regarding investor positions. Yes, they know where the stops are. London and Tokyo are notorious stop runners, and it is common practice for dealers to "clear the books." It is not a conspiracy against us, only a business practice. Dealers can move markets because they have huge amounts of money behind them. Yet, they must be prudent too...to move the market with your capital means you are risking lots of capital and a central bank may be on the other side....or a huge hedge fund.

You are right, we need to be smarter. We need to place stops outside of areas that are common and obvious. Sometimes we get hit...sometimes we don't. It is frustrating. Forex is the most mentally demanding thing you can do with your time. There is so much to learn. The most important thing to learn is to identify support and resistance. This is the basics to any system because it is how we identify risk and reward points. Don't get frustrated...just focus on one thing at a time and practice practice practice!! Take time and backtest.

You are doing a great job! Keep a positive attitude and keep perfecting your trading skills on step at a time!
  • #711
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:44am Feb 15, 2007 8:44am
Quoting tamkras
Phillip, I guess we can if we flow with them. This is, probably, one more way of looking at it.

If you study the emotions around the turnarounds you will see their emotion as well as motion. Just look at the 4hour spinner that was formed with the previous candle. Haven't heard anybody talking about it. Could it be some emotion showing. The current candle will give there motion away I think. I took the trade on that emotion. Hope I am right
  • #712
  • Feb 15, 2007 8:56am Feb 15, 2007 8:56am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,
I sent you a email about the conflict of thoughts while entering a trade.

Here is one more to ponder over.

There seems to be easier provision in forex tradig for big guys to take away stop losses compared to in the futures and commidities trading. The reason seems to be, in futures and commodities you have a huge heard of buyers and sellers on both sides of your broker's window. For a public buyer, there has to be a public seller, not an institutional seller.

But in forex trading, for a public buyer, there is only one (institutionlal) seller. So, the selling price does not reflect the fair selling price dectated by the huge public market. The selling price is dectated by one single institution. And you know how fair they can be. They need not be fair because there is no other competiter out there to compete their selling price!

So, how much they may shout on the top of their voice that this forex market is a huge market, bla, bla, they are not telling the truth. Yes, it is a huge market with several trillion dollar of trading. But it is not the dollar amount that should decide whether it is a huge market or not. It is the number of participants that should decide it.With the banks always sitting on the other side, we always buy or sell on their terms (prices decided by them) and there is not much With such a control whip in their hands, can we really win? I still feel we can still win provided we out smart them and that is what you are trying to do with your methods, etc.
By the way, are there more than one bank (institution) as market makers behind our broker so that they would compete among themselves to give us a better rate? If there is only one bank (institution) as market maker, "God, protect us".
Thanks.
-Chandra
Philip please correct me if i am wrong:
There are market makers in every market, and when there is a lack of sellers they become the seller and when there is a lack of buyers they become the buyer. Brokers in this market act the same way. Our brokers are the market makers and that is why alot of times spreads will widen. You must be careful because alot of brokers are hard set on hunting your stops and will knock you out of every trade that you are on the right side of.
There are certain ways to protect yourself, but these rules apply in all markets. Such as not overtrading, never bet the farm on one deal, and watch the margin call

..again philip, if i said anything that is incorrect, please let me know.
Just trying to help

-Dave
  • #713
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:05am Feb 15, 2007 9:05am
Sum reading stuff about Trade your PLan and Papertrading
You will see I refer to market conditions that determine the type of ride it is going to be. See the conditions as supp/res , news, chart patterns etc.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Perfect Landing.pdf   82 KB | 5,582 downloads
File Type: pdf The question about papertrading.pdf   19 KB | 4,927 downloads
  • #714
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:10am Feb 15, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Phillip Nel
EurUsd

1. MACD gave signal end of 8:00 to 12:00 candle at 1.3133
2. Stoploss = above resistance = trendline = 50+ pips or 1.3200 = +70
3. Target1 = 1.3100 = 33 pips
4. Target 2 = 21 EMA1.3067 = 66 pips

Action.
If you want to take the trade on to make R:R worth it it must go to target 2 and stoploss +70. If you have done that you would still be in the trade.
I never use stop above 48 pips.

Skip for the time being my action

I took the trade after the 16:00 candle at 1.3145 and stoploss 1.3173 with first target 1.2320. Risking 28pips of yesterdays 60+ gain. There money not mine. It is also a risky one as it havent test the longtermtrend at 1.3180


GbpUsd:

1. Macd did not give short signal.
2. You called it a "mild" continuation pattern. I will never trade on that. You have just explain with that word what you think of that pattern. Not very convincing.
3. When the MACD gave a short signal your stoploss had to be over 100 pips to cover the previous candle.

Action

Skip for the time being.


Made over 60pips yesterday. See the post.
Thanks, Phillip.
I completely understand your explination on EUR/UD.

About GBP/USD:
1. Was there not 'Round Top" sell signal in MACD after the completion 8:00 to 12:00 bar?

2. You said "When the MACD gave a short signal your stoploss had to be over 100 pips to cover the previous candle."
I did not get the meaning of this statement. Can you please expand a bit on this.
Thank you.
-Chandra
  • #715
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:10am Feb 15, 2007 9:10am
Quoting superdezign
Philip please correct me if i am wrong:
There are market makers in every market, and when there is a lack of sellers they become the seller and when there is a lack of buyers they become the buyer. Brokers in this market act the same way. Our brokers are the market makers and that is why alot of times spreads will widen. You must be careful because alot of brokers are hard set on hunting your stops and will knock you out of every trade that you are on the right side of.
There are certain ways to protect yourself, but these rules apply in all markets. Such as not overtrading, never bet the farm on one deal, and watch the margin call

..again philip, if i said anything that is incorrect, please let me know.
Just trying to help

-Dave

I don't really knows how they operate and how they do it. I just noticed that there is a tendency to do the same thing over and over again. Tails. I watch them with a magnifying glass.
  • #716
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:18am Feb 15, 2007 9:18am
Quoting Chandra
Thanks, Phillip.
I completely understand your explination on EUR/UD.

About GBP/USD:
1. Was there not 'Round Top" sell signal in MACD after the completion 8:00 to 12:00 bar?

2. You said "When the MACD gave a short signal your stoploss had to be over 100 pips to cover the previous candle."
I did not get the meaning of this statement. Can you please expand a bit on this.
Thank you.
-Chandra

The 8:00 to 12:00 candle gave a signal on the MACD. The candle was over 100 pips. If you went short there the safest stop was above that 100pip candle and then you had to make 100pips to get a 1:1 ratio. Not for me.

I never chase a candle that goes 100pips and give a MACD signal with that candle. I really dont think a deal is on.
  • #717
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:48am Feb 15, 2007 9:48am
That's a great statement. Another sign to show the "emtion" going on in the market. I will definetly keep this in my mind when looking to "buck" the trend at anytime.

Quoting pips4uandme
Hi again!

No, that's not what I'm saying. The 8 seems to provide a bounce in a strong uptrend. That is when it is "strong." the 8 by nature, is a short term indicator and gives us an idea of what recent price action has done.

If it happens to converge with support along the way, then I would definately consider it to be stronger than normal. Don't really expect it to converge with trendlines too often, but I've never looked, so I don't know.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #718
  • Feb 15, 2007 9:51am Feb 15, 2007 9:51am
Quoting tamkras
it is getting very tight for canuck (loonie) in the falling wedge. Please, see chart.

for those who consider to buy dollar/loonie pair, there are 2 bullish signs on the plate with MACD signal still outstanding, for the want of this candle close.

If price continues to slide further and touch 365SMA, then waiting time for the bullish symptoms will be extended.

If this candle turns green at the close, MACD will provide 3rd bullish sign. However, wait to see what side of the wedge price is breaking out.

I will try this pair once I have confirmed MACD signal and conditions above. I have a mental price of 1.1685 which the pair should break to go long.
as an update (for anyone interested in this pair - usd/cad), remember I've put a limit price of 1.1685 to tell me it is surviving. I did not jump in there yet and looks like so far they did not get me. MACD signal confirmed reversal on the 4HR chart, a strong engulfing bullish candle, bounce off 365SMA - everything is crying 'buy me, buy me!' But I WAIT!

I am just hoping this double-bottom on the 1HR price chart will develop into a W pattern. Keep watching in the meantime.
  • #719
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:07am Feb 15, 2007 10:07am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I don't really knows how they operate and how they do it. I just noticed that there is a tendency to do the same thing over and over again. Tails. I watch them with a magnifying glass.
Philip,
This tail you keep mentioning, what exactly is it. Excuse me if I am being nieve, for I may know what it is, I just may call it something else

Thank you
  • #720
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:07am Feb 15, 2007 10:07am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The 8:00 to 12:00 candle gave a signal on the MACD. The candle was over 100 pips. If you went short there the safest stop was above that 100pip candle and then you had to make 100pips to get a 1:1 ratio. Not for me.

I never chase a candle that goes 100pips and give a MACD signal with that candle. I really dont think a deal is on.
Thank you so much for this program. I have been studying it and it is very useful.

I have one question. When you say the candle gave a signal, is there an EA that some one wrote?

Appreciate your help.

AJ
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