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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,521
  • Jun 15, 2008 5:51am Jun 15, 2008 5:51am
[quote=Phillip Nel;2053897]4Hour is in a huge triangle. MACD has not given TC yet but I will treat this trade as a positional trade to be part of a move should it happen. There has to be some clear prove in the price action that supports this action. The bottom TL has been tested, then there was a retracement to the 21ema and then price came down forming a spinner followed by another down candle. There is also a possible sHs on the 4H. Price has shot up over 200pips making a false breakout above top TL and turned around all the way back to bottom TL. If the price is going to go below the bottom TL I believe it will run to around 1.5000 level. Only my opinion. I then wanted to position myself for a possibility of the break downwards. The current situation gives me an oppertunity wit a stoploss of ±20-30 pips to be part of the break. Worth taking the risk.
I have therefore enter at 1.5441
SL 1.5466
TP 1.5400 (To determine R:R to be OK if it turns around to be able to manage the position to BE at worst)
I will then close 50% after +25pips gain and set remainder at -25 so that BE is obtained at worst. Should 1.5410 to 1.5400 being reached I will set remainder on BE and a 45trailing stop to give it a chance should it break downwards.
Edit 1
Close 50% after 25 gain and set remainder at -25. Another important factor is what is going to happen around the bottom TL. If price is getting stuck there the chances will be good that I will get another chance to get in so I will close remainder if there is evidence that the price stays at the bottom TL.
Edit 2
1.5400 has been reached. Set remainder at 1.5440 and with 45trailing stop. Price then shot down to ±1.5385 indicating orders being filled(possibly long orders) and then start to retrace. GbpUsd has made a green bar with tail so I will watch this position closely as to not lose some pips allready made unnecessary if it turn out to be reversing.
Edit 3
Remainder closed at 1.5320 after 1.5300 was hit

Total gain (25+121)/2 = 73[/quote

.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Positional Trade.zip   819 KB | 2,997 downloads
  • #15,522
  • Jun 15, 2008 7:51am Jun 15, 2008 7:51am
Quoting Baggles
Thanks for posting the written version of the daily wrap-up. I'm pleased to read/hear there hasn't been many opportunities on the 4 hour system as I have felt like I must be missing something. I didn't pick a good month to learn the strategy, or rather to benefit from the strategy.

That spike down on the GU does give a good signal though. That would work on any pair. Is it worth spending the time digging around for that sign? Is there a EA that would find them, or am I being lazy.

Bil2205, your self doubt sounds more like you are cautious. That's a good thing. It's better to go into a trade having full confidence you are right.

Baggles:

You're not missing out on anything. Phillip's post #15445 reads that he is just now taking ONLY his second trade for the month of June with the 4hr strategy, two weeks into the trading month.

What does this mean? Patience and discipline are needed to trade and wait for the high probability set-ups. There are a few of us that take trades on the 1hr charts and we are making more trades then most but we have been on this thread for over a year. Once you get the 4hr rhythm down and see how things might be setting up, you can migrate to the 1hr charts to try and 'forecast' what might occur a little sooner. But, remember to put your time (months) into the 4hr timeframe first and to be successful there before looking a t the lower timeframe. It is a more risky venture but if you put the time into , it will happen.
  • #15,523
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:39pm Jun 15, 2008 12:39pm
Phillip,
thanks a lot for your voice recording.
  • #15,524
  • Jun 15, 2008 2:43pm Jun 15, 2008 2:43pm
As Philip said, there was no signal on the MACD, but Philip's trade shows the power of knowing this system by heart. WOW!
  • #15,525
  • Jun 15, 2008 3:21pm Jun 15, 2008 3:21pm
Listening to Phillip's mp3 for the info to newcomers, I don't think that it can be stressed enough about the self-discipline and patience needed for the 4hr method. It's vital to have those ingredients to survive.

Another aspect is, What time of day can I trade? It's easy to look over a chart and see all the set-ups that you could have had. If only...said that to myself many times over. But, we all have needs to attend to and must actually sleep every once in a while. There is an indicator called the Sessions Indicator that can be downloaded to highlight the time of day on your charts for your timezone to see those times where you can actually trade. You can find the info here at http://www.fxtradeblog.com/tools.html#indicators

When have the time to trade the 5 min charts using Phillip's method I only trade the NY session from about 7am to noon EST USA. No trades after lunch period, one of my rules. For the 4hr, it's about the same time through the early evening. You have to give yourself some downtime away from the charts to not focus on just trading. This can lead you to forcing trades or blindly trading just because you have an account. You CAN"T do that. You WILL NOT survive. When trading the 5min or 4hr I think of this as a daily transaction. I look for the best deal, get in, get out thank you have a nice day. I see that the majority of my losers are all because I forced it and did lot not let the market set up correctly. Since learning the patience factor, which can be days on the 4hr charts and hours on the 5min charts, things have improved greatly. If the chart looks confuses on whatever timeframe I simply forget about things, let the market play out and start to trend, wait for the momentum to stall and then start paying attention. Just because it is a new trading day does not mean that you must make a trade. Let it flow first, then recognize the rhythm. If someone else has made a valid successful trade that you might have missed for whatever reason, be happy for them. We are all up against world banks here, the giants. When any of us takes something away from them it's a huge victory. Plan your attack but wait for the right moment to strike.
  • #15,526
  • Edited 4:29pm Jun 15, 2008 4:00pm | Edited 4:29pm
Although, this system is called 4h MACD strategy, Phillip and many other experienced traders don't even need the macd to spot trades. The most important thing in Phillip's system is the rhythm! One should first only focus on the current rhythm to spot trade. If there's rhythm and therefore a possible trade than we could look at the macd to get a confirmation to pull the trigger.
Phillip can take trades looking at the rhythm and price action only without even looking at the macd signals, because he knows the market rhythm by heart! For beginners like myself, we should only only focus on market rhythm first. If we don't understand the rhythm we don't understand why the macd gives signals. There first has to be certain reasons (market rhythm) for us to even look at the macd indicator window.

It's my second time going through the lessons and threads and I'm ready to do it a 3rd time not because I have a bad memory (well that too) but because,
you get to understand this system better than the first time you read it.
First time it goes to your ears.
Second time to your mind.
And third time it should go into your heart. (That's what I'm trying to accomplish)

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY for all here in the U.S!

Phillip when is the Father's day in South Africa?
Doesn't matter, Happy father's day dear as well!!!

I'm not a father, but respect all father's of the world!!
Have a wonderful time with your familiy^^
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,527
  • Jun 15, 2008 6:59pm Jun 15, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting Song Kim
Although, this system is called 4h MACD strategy, Phillip and many other experienced traders don't even need the macd to spot trades. The most important thing in Phillip's system is the rhythm! One should first only focus on the current rhythm to spot trade. If there's rhythm and therefore a possible trade than we could look at the macd to get a confirmation to pull the trigger.
Phillip can take trades looking at the rhythm and price action only without even looking at the macd signals, because he knows the market rhythm by heart! For beginners like myself, we should only only focus on market rhythm first. If we don't understand the rhythm we don't understand why the macd gives signals. There first has to be certain reasons (market rhythm) for us to even look at the macd indicator window.

It's my second time going through the lessons and threads and I'm ready to do it a 3rd time not because I have a bad memory (well that too) but because,
you get to understand this system better than the first time you read it.
First time it goes to your ears.
Second time to your mind.
And third time it should go into your heart. (That's what I'm trying to accomplish)

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY for all here in the U.S!

Phillip when is the Father's day in South Africa?
Doesn't matter, Happy father's day dear as well!!!

I'm not a father, but respect all father's of the world!!
Have a wonderful time with your familiy^^
Song Kim,

So did I. I read them 3 times & still need more time to get the rhythm.
Again Thank you Phillip for your 4hrs Macd system.

Pete
  • #15,528
  • Jun 15, 2008 7:23pm Jun 15, 2008 7:23pm
Pound is setting up. Will look for a TC off the 21, a high probability trade...patients
Morelands
  • #15,529
  • Jun 15, 2008 7:39pm Jun 15, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting Morelands
Pound is setting up. Will look for a TC off the 21, a high probability trade...patients
Morelands
Thank you Morelands I am watching too

Petehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #15,530
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:06pm Jun 15, 2008 8:06pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Thank you Morelands I am watching too

Petehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
im watching too keep it up
Lazy Forex
  • #15,531
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:59pm Jun 15, 2008 9:59pm
Quoting Yorik
People, I've found, imho, a quite cool way for testing this strategy in MetaTrader which is much more close to real trading than using F12 button. It lies in using MetaTrader's Tester and a special expert. This system is described in the article Testing Visualization: Manual Trading. In comparison with using F12 this variant doesn't allow to peep at candles to the right, trendlines can be drawn without being afraid of accidently moving and seeing the chart and it's possible to watch how price "dances", MAs are moving and MACD setups appear and dissappear. And I must confess that I'm making much more mistakes while this type of backtesting and it's more emotional than the usual one, but more useful and edifying I hope.

P.s. If anybody finds this interesting but needs help with installation and tunning this system in MetaTrader - please, feel free to write to me (better via PM not to flood here)

Edit: I attached a flash-video instruction with how to install everything (Instructions_(run_vHandsTrade.html_file).zip) and all needed files (vHandsTrade.zip).
thank you
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #15,532
  • Jun 15, 2008 11:12pm Jun 15, 2008 11:12pm
Forex Factory has its own thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849
  • #15,533
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:43am Jun 16, 2008 1:43am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Rhythm trading.zip   999 KB | 1,687 downloads
File Type: pdf Rhythm Trading.pdf   98 KB | 1,627 downloads
  • #15,534
  • Jun 16, 2008 2:09am Jun 16, 2008 2:09am
[color=magenta]
Quoting HAPPY FATHER'S DAY for all here in the U.S![/COLOR

Phillip when is the Father's day in South Africa?
Doesn't matter, Happy father's day dear as well!!!

I'm not a father, but respect all father's of the world!!
Have a wonderful time with your familiy^^
We allso had fathersday yesterday. Best wishes to all fathers.
  • #15,535
  • Jun 16, 2008 3:52am Jun 16, 2008 3:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
All the important links is on Page 1

PhillipNel LargeCandle Entry Spread page 651 post 9759 21Dec2007.doc....................page 652.... post 9771
Thank you Phillip for this info.I now have a better clear picture how to manage long candles stopploss.Actually I am still on 300page from that thread starting from the page 1 so I am happy to find this info on the page 652.
Have a great week.
  • #15,536
  • Jun 16, 2008 3:53am Jun 16, 2008 3:53am
The tail is sweet just like that of GU of last week. Philip you alway build confidence in us. We should always remember that history repeats itself in forex. We just trust the system, the motion and the emotion.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #15,537
  • Edited 6:46am Jun 16, 2008 4:08am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting ejiexe
The tail is sweet just like that of GU of last week. Philip you alway build confidence in us. We should always remember that history repeats itself in forex. We just trust the system, the motion and the emotion.
There was a gapup opening, then they retraced the price closing the gap and then turned the price around with that tail closing above that bottom trendline. Although the 21ema was in the way upwards after that tail the whole setup was a strong indication of an upmove coming. Just watch 1.5500 level.

Edit
The rule people apply is that a gap tends to be filled. The move prior to the gapup was down so I think the positions was short to be part if the gap is filled and the move continues downwards. When it turned around that far I knew that the upmove could be strong.

Entered 1.5419 Edit(filled at 1.5423)
SL 1.5386
TP 1.5530

Edit 1
Close 50% for +25pips. Set remainder at BE and on a 30trailing stop.

Edit 2
Price is stucked around 1.5460. Will tighten my stop to 1.5443. (To make positive position a round +20 on remainder)

Edit 3
Price moved again. Will trail with 20

Edit 4
1.5510 and 365ema reached. 89Sma the next target. Still trail by 20

Edit
Remainder closed by trailingstop at 1.5496

Total gain (25+73)/2 = +49
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,538
  • Jun 16, 2008 5:23am Jun 16, 2008 5:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel
There was a gapup opening, then they retraced the price closing the gap and then turned the price around with that tail closing above that bottom trendline. Although the 21ema was in the way upwards after that tail the whole setup was a strong indication of an upmove coming. Just watch 1.5500 level.

Edit
The rule people apply is that a gap tends to be filled. The move prior to the gapup was down so I think the positions was short to be part if the gap is filled and the move continues downwards. When it turned around that far I knew that the upmove could be strong.

Entered 1.5419 Edit(filled at 1.5423)
SL 1.5386
TP 1.5530

Edit 1
Close 50% for +25pips. Set remainder at BE and on a 30trailing stop.

Edit 2
Price is stucked around 1.5460. Will tighten my stop to 1.5443. (To make positive position a round +20 on remainder)
Thanks again for the confidence. I am always happy anytime I see a trade the way my master and other guru sees the trade.

I entered late at @ 1.5427 close 50% @ 1.5464 when the price stucked and set remainder to BE for TP @ 1.5500. Since I will have much time today to watch then I won't trail the remainder. I will watch for manual closing if profit is not reached.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #15,539
  • Jun 16, 2008 6:37am Jun 16, 2008 6:37am
What a lovely trade Phillip and ejiexe. I'm starting to like those long tails. Yet again I did not take advantage, but good to watch you guys and learn a thing or two. Practice my trend lines and look for an entry on the retracement.
  • #15,540
  • Jun 16, 2008 6:43am Jun 16, 2008 6:43am
I take that back. I'm only ready for TC signals.
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